Could offering a referendum on rejoining the EU save Labour?

Martin Shipton

More than 13 months after Labour returned to power, we are told that the UK Government is unlikely to achieve its growth targets and that the “black hole” in the public finances has risen to £51bn.

Some taxes will have to rise, although as a result of past promises made by the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, this won’t include Income Tax or VAT.

It seems that Gambling Tax is in her sights, as well perhaps as unearned income, although whether she has the courage to tackle the latter is uncertain.

There is, however, a certain way of improving Britain’s growth that the great majority of economists would endorse – in fact, all but the crackpot fringe who have an umbilical cord that stretches all the way to the studios of GB News.

Rejoining the EU would provide the best boost conceivable to the UK economy, and both Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer know that.

Dysfunctional

It’s a measure of the dysfunctional nature of our political system – and especially the irrational approach of Labour, who are haunted by previous decisions they made over the issue that many saw as mistakes at the time – that Brexit is hardly mentioned any more.

The other day the Telegraph, whose news agenda these days appears to be set by Robert Jenrick and the Israeli Embassy, ran a story about Britain’s falling living standards headlined “UK has lower living standards than Italy”.

The first two paragraphs read: “Britain’s living standards fell behind those in Italy for the first time since 2001 in a fresh blow to Rachel Reeves’s efforts to boost economic growth and renew the nation’s competitiveness.

“Slow growth, rising joblessness and high inflation are all damaging Britain, raising fears it is losing its status as a rich nation at the same time as Italy shakes off its economic basket case image. When adjusted for the cost of living, GDP per capita is now higher in Italy than in the UK.”

The word ‘Brexit’ was omitted – perhaps unsurprisingly, considering that the Telegraph has long been designed to appeal to the most Blimpish elements of the English middle class, with a natural suspicion of Johnny Foreigner in all his guises.

I’m not a regular reader, but I doubt that the Telegraph was first out of the blocks when reporting the findings of an opinion poll that showed that just 29% of voters would back staying out of the EU if a new referendum was held on the issue now.

So what’s stopping Labour from ditching its omerta around the mention of Brexit, and advocating a referendum on reapplying for membership of the EU?

Paradox

Thinking about this conundrum leads to the paradox at the heart of current British politics. Why is Reform UK, led by the architect of Brexit Nigel Farage, leading the polls at a time when Brexit is less popular than it’s ever been?

Most of the answer is that while people can choose from a list of multiple parties when deciding who to vote for in a general election, the choice in a referendum is binary. So while the support of 31% of those voting may potentially be enough to secure Reform an overall majority in a first-past-the-post general election, it would be nowhere near enough to win another referendum for those who want the UK to stay out of the EU.

What also needs to be taken into account is the fact that some voters see a referendum as an opportunity to give the government of the day a kicking, without factoring in a consideration of the consequences.

That’s certainly what happened in 2016.

And there’s another category of perversity that caters for those reconciled to holding apparently contradictory and irreconcilable opinions simultaneously – like being a Conservative supporter who would vote for an independent Wales in a referendum.

Such people do exist, as pollsters will happily explain.

It’s clear to me that if Labour offered a fresh referendum on EU membership, Reform’s guns could be spiked. Farage’s mantra of “Brexit is ancient history, it’s time to move on” would no longer cut the mustard.

It’s a ridiculous point anyway, given the negative impact that Brexit has on our spending power and trading potential every day. But forcing Farage to take responsibility for the economic dislocation he is responsible for through his advocacy of Brexit, allied to his shameful admiration for the likes of Trump and Putin, would place him on the defensive in a new referendum.

As would the fact that Brexit has exacerbated the small boats crisis rather than cured it.

Superficially attractive (to some) demagogues like Farage need to be confronted and exposed if they are to be defeated.

Useless

Starmer’s reluctance to show leadership and take on Farage will lead to a crushing defeat for Labour in 2029 if the current tame and frankly useless strategy remains in place.

Blaenau Gwent Labour MS Alun Davies has embraced the idea of a new referendum. He said: “Reform want to talk about everything except Brexit. That’s because there’s nothing to be said in its favour.

“Despite what Nigel Farage and the others who promoted it said before the referendum, its impact on Britain has been wholly negative.

“Nobody, including the Brexiteers, puts forward any longer the argument that Brexit is to Britain’s economic advantage. Everyone can see that hasn’t been the case.

“Brexit has made Britain less competitive. It’s led to more costs for business and therefore prices have risen.

“The Labour Party shouldn’t be afraid of pointing out that it’s very much in the interests of the UK to have access to the European single market. At the next general election, Labour should promise a referendum on rejoining the EU. It could put forward the case that resuming our place in the world’s biggest single market would help us achieve the economic growth we need to create greater prosperity.”

‘European’

Asked whether he thought Keir Starmer would be prepared to offer such a referendum, Mr Davies said: “Keir Starmer is fundamentally a European. I think he understands that when all is said and done, Britain’s future is in the EU.

“Everything he’s done in relation to Europe has been geared to rebooting the relationship with the EU. With all the destabilising events that are happening in the world, we should be working in close cooperation with our European neighbours in terms of trade, as well as defence and security, rather than creating unnecessary barriers.”

More people in Labour should champion the cause of a new referendum if they want to avoid not just the humiliation of defeat but the horror of austerity on steroids that a Reform government would lead to.