Could Reform UK win Wales? Reform Cymru might
Jonathan Edwards
Looking at the main strategic challenges facing established political parties is a relatively easy task.
Faultlines left to fester do not dissipate and re-emerge as open sores in a context where Wales is heading for political stalemate.
As a challenger new entrant party, deciphering some of the major dilemmas faced by a party like Reform Ltd is a more difficult task.
With Reform within the margin of error in successive polls of winning the election, as far as devolution is concerned the enemy is at the gate with a battering ram ready to blow up Welsh politics as we know it.
I had always speculated that the real election to watch for the Senedd would be 2030, but it appears that the moment of truth is upon us.
Momentum
The most precious commodity in politics, momentum, appears to be with Nigel Farage as he hopes to use next year’s election as a bridgehead for the prize he really seeks – Westminster.
Mission priority for Reform I suspect is to ensure that the whole enterprise doesn’t implode. Considering that the party mostly consists of anti-establishment mavericks, the situation is inevitably combustible.
The problem with one person parties is that the health of the party is completely reliant upon one personality.
If Farage falls from grace the whole thing is finished, and not just because he reportedly owns 53% of the shares.
Having said that, if it can be held together the new Senedd system is made for a political offer based on one demagogic personality.
Labour and Plaid Cymru have given Farage a gift he could only dream of in conspiring to introduce a closed list electoral system.
The main strategic challenge Reform faces is how they move on from here and win the election, an event that will reverberate way beyond our own borders and send Westminster into panic mode.
Reform’s main challenge, I suspect, will be to turn the energy behind it into actual votes. Turnouts for Senedd elections traditionally are pathetically low, and therefore will anti-establishment voters actually make the effort to cast their ballot.
Poll ratings are all well and good, but polls don’t win elections – only cast ballots.
Tipping point
Bearing in mind that it has already cornered the anti-Welsh political establishment vote, Reform should be thinking about how it can push the Tories beyond the precipice.
At 15% the Tories are in tipping point territory, and those of a right of centre persuasion could easily coalesce around Reform in droves.
Reform’s major strategic decision however is whether to drape itself in the Welsh or Union flag over the coming 12 months.
It already has hard core unionists in the bag, but it can’t win with that vote alone. Some symbolic rebranding along the lines of “Reform Cymru” could easily build a perception that the party is reaching out to those who clearly identify as Welsh.
What the Reform leadership should consider is that Welsh identifiers are more numerous in Wales than British identifiers, and are far more likely to vote in a Senedd election.
This would be exactly the same trick played by all the UK-wide parties, so they could hardly complain about this perceptive turn of hand.
Anti-Welsh
From the conversations I have in the Amman Valley, there are plenty of people who want to shake matters up but are reluctant to support an enterprise that they deem to be anti-Welsh.
The political decision it faces is similar. Are Reform going to Cardiff Bay to do a Brussels? In other words, bring the house down. Or are they as a party committed to devolution in principle.
I am not particularly clear on where they stand on that. Strategically it’s difficult to play the anti-establishment card if they want to become a part of the furniture in CF99.
Here lies a major contradiction for Reform that surely the other parties will zero in on.
The fact that Reform is in such a strong position as matters currently stand is a damning indictment of the failure of successive Welsh Parliaments to address the major social and economic challenges faced by our country.
A sizeable chunk of the Welsh population has lost faith in the establishment parties and in the ability of devolution to improve their lives.
If Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Tories are to have any hope of seeing off the insurgency before them, they are going to have to seriously up their game.
Regrettably, from what I see they resemble paralysed rabbits as the political freight train approaches.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24
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Here’s hoping the Welsh public learn the lessons from a disastrous Brexit and the election of the orange clown across the pond, Reform will damage Cymru too. But I’m not holding my breath.
True enough, but what else is there to do? Vote Labour, for whom treachery is a form of art? Or Plaid, who are ineffectual even when they aren’t wasting energy and alienating everyone around arguing over, say, who may and may not claim to be a woman? Maybe there will be a Gwlad or Propel on the ballot, a protest vote is still a vote I guess.
Don’t forget the Abolish Party could save us quite a few millions on bike lanes and myopic tinpot ideas.
How do you save money on bike lanes that have already been built? You’d have to spend almost as much to remove them. Don’t forget that the sudden proliferation of cycle lanes was part of Boris Johnson’s plan to level up the UK. The money came from him.
But they’re going to build more Deliveroo highways in Wales.They could dig up the perfect tarmac and fill in the thousands of potholes that cover Wales. How many Senedd members and Councillors cycle to work or have a bike ? Answers on the back of a postage stamp please !
Steve. Here’s an exercise in critical thinking for you: why don’t you try having respectful conversations with Reform voters and try to gain some understand of their view point? Of course – you can continue to tell yourself they’re all thick…which is the laziest but easiest path…but there is another option.
That’s a bit rich coming from the most bigoted and ill-tempered individual in the comments section. How about you try some respectful conversations for once?
In your last reply to a post of mine you called me an idiot Frank.
You are an idiot. You are also a hypocrite. Hope that’s clear.
Actually Adrian I did spend a lot of time communicating with those who voted Brexit before and after the referendum, and for my efforts I had a lot of abuse thrown my way! That’s exactly why I said – I’m not holding my breath!
The question the other parties must address is why so many Welsh people appear to be minded to vote Reform? Should they choose to do so they would undoubtedly find that one of the main reasons is that such people are alarmed at the sheer scale of uncontrolled mass immigration, and especially illegal immigration. If the other parties – particularly Labour and Plaid Cymru – want to divert those votes back to themselves then they must ditch their ideological opposition to serious immigration controls, and actively campaign for them. That seems to be what the Welsh electorate wants.
The immigration that wories me, are those that come from over Offa’s Dyke.
Yes, well you won’t get Plaid Cymru or Labour (no surprise there!) opposing that either, because they are ideologically opposed to controlling immigration – from wherever!
Not a particularly ‘Anti-Racist’ outlook David!
It’s not racist to highlight that the influx of older incomers consume a disproportionately high amount of the per-capita funding for public services meaning less is available for everyone else.
Bit late in the day to spot that anomaly. A55 corridor in the north and west end of M4 into A48 in the south are loaded heavily with a mix of retired types and relocated asbo’s from various parts of England. Similar problems for services in urban and rural Powys.
It could be fixed tomorrow if central government funding was needs based.
But to reduce the false narrative that English taxpayers are subsidising Wales (London taxpayers are subsidising everyone else) I propose state pension benefits being paid out by London are assigned as public spending to where the recipients worked and paid the majority of their NI contributions rather than where they now live.
You what you’re suggesting is we take back control?
Fair funding and accurate beancounting would be a start.
Who decides what the needs are? What you suggest is cloud cuckoo land.
It’s not difficult to allocate funding based on demographics rather than simply the population size.
Imagine you’re responsible for two GP surgeries. One has 1000 registered patients all under 65, and one has 1000 registered patients all over 65. Do you genuinely believe each “needs” half of your budget? Is allocating more to the surgery serving the older population really “cloud cuckoo land”?
That would be a very popular in North Norfolk with its aging population where 33% of the population are pensioners.
Needs-based funding should happen at all levels of government. Of course counties with older populations should have an appropriate level of services to support their local population.
It already happens at the English regional level:
https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/nhs-delivery-and-workforce/funding/health-funding-data-analysis
According to this source the south east of England spends £2909 per person on health whereas the north west gets £3511 and in London they lavish £3972 per head.
We get more than any of them
Can you back that up?
According to the link below per capita health spending in Wales for 2022/23 was £2947 which is £1000 less per person than London to look after the oldest population in the UK.
https://www.gov.wales/nhs-expenditure-programme-budgets-april-2022-march-2023-html
My we is based on Wales v other UK countries where per capita health spending in2022 t0 2023 was England£3300 Scotland £3300 Norther Ireland £3500 and Wales £3600. London was the most supported region and the east of England the least supported.
In the NHS in England, the NHS payment scheme outlines the average cost of procedures. These average costs are then adjusted to take account of local variation, such as higher staffing costs in London (this is known as the market forces factor).
You can’t have a serious conversation about funding by comparing a population of 3m with a population of 56m. London is the youngest part of the UK yet gets £1000 per person more than Wales. That’s not explainable by higher wages for nurses. If you think age isn’t a big deal, the Nuffield Foundation have suggested that someone in their 80s costs seven times as much to look after as someone in their 40s. To put that another way, a GP surgery with 1000 people in their 80s on their books would need 7 GPs to deliver the same service… Read more »
The bottom line is the NHS is not working. The money is there but it is not delivering the goods.
Let’s first sort out fair funding before blaming doctors and nurses for not working hard enough in areas overrun by retirees.
So you’ll be OK with the same principle being applied to illegal migrants on the southern border then?
Are you comparing retirees moving from England to Wales without adequate central government funding to people fleeing war and persecution?
You’re complaining about the load on the Welsh economy of those retirees, but not about the load on the UK of jobless illegal migrants (around £8 million per day): it just seems an oddly conflicted position….and last time I looked, France wasn’t war-torn.
I respect democracy Adrian. In 2016 52% voted to fill our hotels with people fleeing war and persecution, and some possibly dangerous chancers, because they didn’t want the UK to participate in a system where asylum claims were processed at the point they entered Europe with us only taking a far smaller number of genuine vetted cases. Perhaps it’s time you respected the people’s choice too?
Ah – that’ll be why there are no problems with immigration in EU countries then!
We didn’t need hotels in 2016, remember?
You really have no idea. The stats around the ageing population of Wales are terrifying and will break us like a juggernaut in the next 10-15 yrs. Most migrants I see on a dsily basis are young and working tax, payers. However the English are old, ailing, disruptive, many unable or not wanting to work. Cheap housing/ rent and free prescriptions
Very often we don’t know whether they really are ‘fleeing war and persecution’ and even if they were why pass through umpteen other safe countries before claiming asylum? And I’ve lost count of the number of so-called ‘refugees’ and ‘asylum seekers’ who, having taken full advantage of our compassion and hospitality, go on to repay our generosity by committing serious acts of crime and terrorism.. What a soft touch we are!
There were no small boat crossings in 2016.
What is your definition of mass immigration. There are currently 400K Asylum seekers and refugees in the UK out of the UK Population of 68 Million people. Now compare that to Poland which has recently taken in 2 Million people from Ukraine and Impoverished Bangladesh that has taken in 4 Million Rohigyas from Myanmar. Many arrivals into the UK have no option but to cross the channel as there’s no safe route into the UK from war torn countries as a result of UK and USA military intervention. As for safe routes why are there safe routes from Hong Kong… Read more »
A lot of retirees moving from England to Wales are Welsh and Welsh speakers who moved to England for the employment opportunities offered and then go home to retire! Mind you if they need hospital treatment they go back to England we have so many areas that are reliant on English medical services.
A career abroad helping a different economy to grow only to return and be a burden on an economy weakened by your absence is just as problematic.
How does being brought up in Wales but finding it hard to get a job there, moving to England for work paying taxes. Weaken the Welsh economy? When the alternative was staying in Wales living off benefits.
I’m not proposing it as a growth strategy but benefits paid by London and spent in Wales contribute to Welsh GDP. They’ll be spent in local businesses helping them survive and thrive, creating new jobs in the process. In a narrow sense that is better than disappearing for 40 years only to return as a high consumer of public services.
But the point wasn’t a criticism of people leaving. It’s their failure to return until retirement when they could be returning mid career bringing skills and expertise to contribute to real economic growth.
They contribute a great deal to Welsh GDP.
It’s the net contribution that matters.
Most of the taxes that result from their GDP boost go to Whitehall with insufficient coming back to cover their health and social care costs.
And don’t forget their state pension benefits count as Welsh public spending, exacerbating the so-called deficit.
Does any Welsh person who is that concerned about Wales seriously think that mass migration into England doesn’t have a ‘knock-on effect’ on Wales?
‘… one of the main reasons is that such people are alarmed at the sheer scale of uncontrolled mass immigration, and especially illegal immigration.’
The irony there is that the level of approved and legal inward migration now is considerably higher than that which occurred as a consequence of ‘free movement’ when the UK was still in the EU, and that today’s legal inward migration vastly exceeds the number of folk arriving in Kent on small boats.
But on this issue hard facts don’t seem to weigh that much.
Der Anglopresse have a lot to power.
Because they are not Welsh or don’t care about Wales. They may pretend to be for 80 minutes every so often but they are clearly prepared to vote for what is obviously an English Nationalist party. Their Welshness is superficial without any knowledge of Welsh history or politics.
Immigration does need controlling to a certain extent but Wales has it’s own particular immigration problem with a certain very loud demographic closer to home that is actively
changing our political landscape under our very noses.
…. or maybe they care as much (or more) about Wales than you do.
You would think we were in Essex…
Walking through towns in West Wales I sometimes get the feeling that I’m east of Clawdd Offa.
The urban stroll up here can be heart breaking, the mile of empty shops in Blaenau contrasts so harshly with the throng and bustle of Porthmadog, the hub for thousands of caravan folk…
That old slate train still provides some kind of economic life-line to the town center at least…
Great bread and chips, by the way…
Strange that on Amwythig you could believe you are West of the Clawdd. Nice shops restaurants and a hospital.
Do these prospective voters have any idea what they will be voting for? Chaos. As if UKIP, Brexit Party and leaving the EU and the chaos surrounding that period solved anything.
“……from what I see they resemble paralysed rabbits as the political freight train approaches.” Correct assessment. They need to shake off the paralysis, stop couching ideas and policy in anti-Reform or anti anything else terms and start to present positive aims and goals with matching broad action plans. Or is that beyond them all ?
Agreed on paralysed rabbits; but it’s too late for broad action plans, strategies and visions. The disillusioned have heard it all before in the Valleys, rural Wales and elsewhere. They simply don’t believe it any more and who can blame them.
Seldom have we ever had anything of substance from any of the parties here in Wales. Having an offering that only makes passing reference to the failings of the others would be quite refreshing. Try ambition without the “pie in the sky” bit that has habitually dominated any new ideas.
True. The big danger is that nearer the election Reform could come up with a set of Welsh policies that will really resonate with voters. They don’t need to do anything at the moment given the ineffectiveness of others.
I’m aware that reform voters are absolutely despised in Wales, but we can’t rely on them finding respect for Wales or a conscience for themselves to keep reform out.
Up their game is a bit of an understatement. Wales would be finished if fascism ever got any kind of foothold.
Are you serious…did you not see the results of the 2024 election in Wales. Your desperate comment shows perhaps you missed it???
Over the years, I’ve watched in disbelief as Wales was served by the powers that be in Cardiff Bay. As someone who campaigned alongside the ‘no more powers’ faction, I never opposed the creation of the Assembly. However, I felt a growing frustration as the Assembly and now the Senedd continually fall short of the public’s expectations, especially as it clamoured for more powers. The promise of a brighter future seemed elusive, and the people of Wales deserved better. These days, my frustration has only intensified with the blatant misrule by those entrenched in the Bay. Cloaked in their undeservedly… Read more »
Could you tell me what of Wales the Senedd has “sold off”? What assets does the Senedd even have the authority to sell? It looks to me that Wales was seized, and everything of value stripped and sold off long before 1997.
The massive victory by Labour in the 2024 General Election was always on the cards? People had 14 years of a Conservative Government and Labour ran on a ticket of ‘Change’ but never telling the electorate what that change meant to ordinary people! The chaos within Labour came to the fore, illegal immigration mushroomed, Starmer’s own office saw infighting and he appointed a Chancellor who told us she worked in HBOS (Bank) as an economist, when she was actually working in the complaints department…her resulting budget showed she was definitely NO economist. Britain’s economy ‘ground to a halt’ at the… Read more »
If Reform was genuinely about reform in the style of the Newport Chartists then Reform Cymru would be easy and obvious. It isn’t because it isn’t.
Perhaps important to distinguish between Reform “winning” the election and being the largest party? The former is improbable (for anyone); but the latter quite possible. However, it seems probable – at least at the minute – that Plaid and Labour will have 40+ seats between them (which creates its own problems for both) and with the Tories tanking a coalition of the right is less likely. I do agree, however, that the abject failure of the established Welsh parties is largely to blame for this chaos.
By choosing a system where you vote for a party (Closed List) instead of an individual (Single Transferable Vote) Labour have doomed themselves and handed the Senedd to Reform. And as Farage is viscerally Centrist they have probably doomed the Senedd as well.
Farage isn’t a centrist, where did you get that from?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrism
I think he means that Farage is London centric ! As well as eccentric. Probably elliptic as well which is why he seems to wobble.
Centralist?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_centralism
or self centred ? This could go on and on. Longer than the lifespan of Reform !
Highly centralised government is a hallmark of communism so if Farage is indeed a communist then voters deserve to know. What aren’t we being told?
Well, given that so many Communist leaders have been far more concerned about filling their own coffers rather than improving the lot of their public in general it is conceivable that Farage is a communist too. I’ve always said that there isn’t much difference between the Far Right and the Far Left whatever those may be today as they keep chopping and changing with amazing regularity.
Given mass immigration from the country next door caused us to appear brexit supports. Never stop facing down the hate of Farage and the wealth rob from the average person.