Devolution & Plaid’s Dilemma

Ben Wildsmith 

The Anglo-Welsh political relationship is at an uncertain juncture, and how the Plaid-led government plays its hand could have far-reaching consequences.

Andy Burnham’s noncommittal replies today when questioned about constitutional issues suggest that he’s now aware that his rather crass approach upon assuming office wasn’t the PM’s best work. Today’s line emphasised the primacy of Welsh Government and the Senedd as partners with Westminster.

His initial remarks on the subject had seemed to signal a preference for dealing with local authorities rather than devolved governments. Whilst today’s tonal adjustment acknowledged anxiety over the by-passing of nationally devolved institutions, Burnham again pressed his call for ‘deeper’ devolution within Wales.

This is a novel dilemma for a Welsh government, and one that could prove definitive as Plaid attempts to establish itself as a permanent governing force. Politically, it is a tricky issue. Whilst the term ‘nationalist’ tends to be used pejoratively nowadays, the vision of Wales as a unified political entity is very much Plaid’s thing.

The creation of autonomous political units within Wales risks a dilution of the nation’s political identity and cohesion. For Plaid, this is a whole new headache. A political machine that has been built and honed over a century to rip power away from London, is now tasked with holding on to it.

This poses significant problems both in strategy and messaging. Were Westminster to suggest devolving powers directly to local authorities in Wales, how could Plaid mount a case against that didn’t carry echoes of ‘Better Together’ unionism that could be exploited by opponents for years to come? How would Welsh voters feel about their English counterparts enjoying greater local empowerment if that were opposed by their government in Cardiff?

Burnham’s most interesting remark today was a suggestion that local government in Wales should be reorganised, taking into account the mayoral model in England. There are two points to note here. Firstly, somebody has evidently informed the PM that local authorities in Wales have neither the staff nor logistics to take on direct powers from Westminster.

Implicit in his suggestion, however, was his preferred solution to rolling out devolution outside of England. Powers will be more forthcoming for the Welsh Government, it seems, if that government is committed to downstreaming devolution and seen to be creating the political infrastructure for it.

Damaging rows

Here lies the potential for political gains in Wales, but also for damaging rows. There are those who have always argued, with much justification, that devolution is, at its heart, designed to prevent independence. They point out that any governing body that is dependent on external funding cannot be considered a meaningful government. It can be constrained, made to fail, or even abolished by the whims of others. The illusion of power that devolution brings, they argue, postpones the ultimate decision over sovereignty that Wales must eventually face.

On the other hand, a devolved national government acts as a formal expression of the political culture here. The proof of that lies in the regular tantrums thrown by anti-devolutionist unionists whenever the government diverges from Westminster. Our government may lack real power, but it has provided a national voice for Wales that couldn’t be transmitted through the dubious intentions of the Welsh Office.

Most importantly, though, devolution is popular. It has been confirmed in every election since 1998. Various iterations of the abolition movement have all been exposed as a minority position at the ballot box.

So, the trap laid for Plaid is to take an unpopular line against deeper devolution that risks disadvantaging Welsh regions in terms of local powers. It would be a political disaster for Plaid if they were seen to be hoarding powers in Cardiff that were being distributed around England by Labour. One can assume that the PR campaign around the success of mayoralties will be enthusiastic as the PM has made their empowerment his signature policy.

Play ball

Will Plaid play ball? If it seeks to become the natural party of government here, cooperation over this issue might be the wise move. Strengthening local government here is a laudable goal in itself, and something that would absolutely be necessary in an independent Wales.

The key demand from Plaid should be that powers be devolved from Westminster to Cardiff, on agreement that onward devolution will be honoured.  If powers and money are on the table for such a reorganisation then Plaid should grab them while they are. What emerges in England next might be very different indeed.

If the majority party of a devolved government allows itself to be cast as anti-devolutionary, it will have been gamed.

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