Dystopia here we come?

Martin Shipton

The other day I spotted a post on X from the right wing journalist Isabel Oakeshott. I found its implications extremely disturbing.

She wrote: “In the world according to @Keir_Starmer, if I grew up in, say, Somalia, I could credibly claim to be Somalian. Could I? Really? I think that would be laughable.”

It was written in the aftermath of Reform UK’s announcement which implied that it may force migrants to reapply for the right to stay in the UK even if they had lived here for years and had previously been granted permission to remain indefinitely.

It’s difficult to imagine how hurtful it must be for the many thousands of people who have settled in the UK, made a contribution to society and paid their taxes, to hear a political party propose a policy that could result in their deportation. What kind of person devises such a policy, and what kind of people would implement it?

Isabel Oakeshott’s remark about the supposed absurdity of her claiming to be Somalian if she had been born in Somalia is intended as a riposte to those who would argue that the British-born children of migrants should have a right to stay here. She clearly believes they should be kicked out with their parents.

Egotist

I’ve never had much time for Ms Oakeshott. Whenever I’ve seen her on TV she has come across to me as a sneering, entitled egotist who looks down on those she considers inferior to herself. Some years ago I observed her at close quarters in the Groucho Club in London’s Soho at the launch of a book about Brexit and the media for which I had written a chapter. She took part in a panel discussion and gave the impression from her contributions, as well as her smirking demeanour, that she regarded Brexit as a huge game, rather than as a phenomenon that would have a huge impact on people’s lives.

Her tone in resisting the idea that she could be a Somalian if she had been born in Somalia is similarly truculent and facetious. But she means it.

It’s important to note that Isabel Oakeshott isn’t just another right wing journalist who writes to please their employer, of whom there are too many and to whom – we hope – Nation.Cymru is an antidote. She’s the partner of Richard Tice, the deputy leader of Reform UK, who would be highly likely to have a major role in a future government led by Nigel Farage, should such an appalling eventuality really come to pass.

Deportation

Earlier this week – perhaps before flying to rejoin his partner at her home in Dubai (presumably she doesn’t regard herself as a Dubaian) – Tice refused in a TV interview to reassure long-standing residents of the UK with leave to remain on at least four occasions that they wouldn’t face deportation. The interviewer was Andrew Neil, who usually has the opposite of progressive leanings. As Neil repeatedly pressed Tice to answer the question, the Reform deputy leader became increasingly angry and intransigent, giving a flavour of how he would react to scrutiny if he was ever in government.

Farage and Tice are trying to sanitise their proposals, knowing they have to appeal to a broader section of the electorate than those who would in the past have voted for the National Front or the British National Party.

But they are wolves in sheep’s clothing. If they gained power, they would create huge social upheaval, with cuts to social programmes and core public services. At last year’s general election their manifesto spoke of UK Government cuts totalling £50bn per year. Another Reform document I came across on their website suggests that £91bn of “government waste” can be “slashed” each year.

On top of the massive job losses together with service reductions and closures that would occur, with huge implications for the health and wellbeing of millions of people, a Reform government would have to create an ICE-style body to oversee the deportation of our colleagues, neighbours and friends who weren’t considered British enough to stay. There would undoubtedly be ongoing civil unrest.

Brexit

The economic problems Britain faces have been greatly exacerbated by Brexit, of which Farage was one of the leading proponents. If he takes power, we will head further in the direction of a dystopia.

At the heart of Reform’s offer is a form of ethno-nationalism that has in recent times been considered beyond the pale (it was taken for granted during Britain’s imperial era). Far right parties in Britain have struggled in the past because of factional in-fighting, the splits that go with the territory and the lack of a charismatic leader to seal the deal with voters. Mostly, however, their racist policies have been considered too extreme.

Now, however, a sizeable part of the population is being seduced by the likes of seemingly friendly and non-threatening newcomers who join Facebook groups and play up local grievances. Their ulterior motive is to win people over for Reform.

They spread the word that migrants are to blame for all the problems of society, and that the focus of discontent should be on them, rather than on those responsible for a grossly unequal society that has huge disparities between the wealthy few and the struggling many.

Scapegoating

Reform UK doesn’t want to address that particular elephant in the room because its financial backers are benefitting from inequality and in fact want more of it. Instead the party builds its support using racism and scapegoating.

Mabon ap Gwynfor, the Plaid Cymru MS for Dwyfor Meirionnydd, told me: “We are a civic nationalist party and have absolutely nothing to do with ethno-nationalism.

“There are different kinds of nationalism in different places, but we believe that everyone who lives in Wales and identifies as Welsh is very welcome to do so.

“Ethno-nationalism of the kind promoted by far right parties seeks to define people by the colour of their skin and their ethnicity. They then make judgments about people based on their ethnic origin, with some races considered superior to others.

“This is a very dangerous path. It pitches people against each other and we know what it led to in Germany in the 1930s. It needs to be called out before it takes root.”

Let’s hope people wake up. Otherwise, it’s dystopia here we come.