Given Farage’s history, the likelihood that Reform will implode is high. But would Welsh politics revert to how it was before?

Martin Shipton

While the polls are giving us a fair idea of how the Senedd election is likely to play out, there is another level of uncertainty that they cannot predict.

It seems clear that the battle for first place in terms of votes and seats is between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with Labour losing the power it has had since the dawn of democratic devolution in 1999, and before that as the largest parliamentary party in Wales since 1922.

Everyone who takes an interest in Welsh politics knows that to be the case – even Labour politicians who are sticking to the convention that you should never say you’re losing until you’ve lost.

But what about the longer term? Will May 2026 be remembered as the beginning of a rare sea-change in British politics, when what had long been seen as the natural order of things was overturned?

The general election of 1922, which we remember as the occasion when Labour became the biggest party in Wales, had a wider significance too. It signalled the end of Lloyd George’s period as Prime Minister, and with it the last time a UK government was led by a Liberal. It was also a crucial moment when the Labour Party started to be seen as a realistic party of government.

I’ve just read an interesting book called Rivals in the Storm by the former Conservative MP Damian Collins, whose crisp sub-title is How Lloyd George Seized Power, Won the War and Lost his Government.

When Asquith was ousted as PM at the end of 1916, the First World War was going badly for Britain thanks to a combination of incompetent generals and dithering politicians. Lloyd George was seen as the only potential leader who could secure victory. However, the plot that brought him to power involved splitting the Liberal Party and relying heavily on support from the Tories.

While Lloyd George continued as PM after a general election in 1918 when the war was essentially won, he was a hostage to the Conservatives, who held more seats than his own “coalition Liberals”.

He considered the possibility of establishing a new Centre Party, comprising his faction of Liberals and the Tories, but the latter wouldn’t go along with the idea and in 1922 pulled the plug on the coalition.

Events showed how despite his popularity as the charismatic PM who had won the war, his personality alone wasn’t sufficient to trigger a realignment of British politics on his terms. Instead, the realignment that was already underway – the switch of support from the Liberals to Labour – continued to take its course.

If we look at more recent developments in some other European countries, we can see that there have been wholesale changes in the political landscape. In Italy, for example, the Christian Democrats and Socialists who at one time were the dominant parties, have been swept away by corruption scandals and replaced by new entities that have a tendency to transform themselves every few years.

In France, a presidential election is due in April 2027 that could see Jordan Bardella, aged 30, of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) party emerge victorious. The election of the current two-term centrist president, Emmanuel Macron, in 2017 saw the eclipse of the main right-wing and left-wing parties that had alternated in power for decades.

Political trajectory

What can be said about the future political trajectory of Wales?

We can state with certainty that the two parties which have led UK governments since 1922 are in serious trouble.

At best, the Labour Party can hope to be the third biggest party in the Senedd after the election results are declared on May 8, while the Conservatives are facing an existential crisis.

The Tories gained an extra lease of life in Wales in the late 1990s, after losing all their seats here in Tony Blair’s 1997 general election landslide.

The introduction of a proportional element to Assembly elections from 1999, with 20 of the 60 seats allocated on a proportional basis, gave them a route back to representation. Now their future is less secure, despite a wholly proportional electoral system being introduced.

Tory strategists privately acknowledge that how badly they do is on a knife-edge, with their chances of winning seats largely based on the allocation of the sixth and final seat in those of the 16 “super constituencies” where they have some hope.

To qualify for group status in the post-election Senedd, together with the right to representation on committees and additional funding, the Conservatives will have to win at least five seats. With at least one poll suggesting they could be reduced to just one seat, it’s no wonder there is nervousness within the party.

Clearly much of their support has been haemorrhaging to Reform, largely it can be argued because they have tried unconvincingly to copy the insurgent party’s racist dog whistle narrative approach of offering a principled programme of their own.

SNP

Labour is also in a difficult position. It’s safe to assume they will take a hammering in May, but will there be any future positives for them in the election outcome? In Scotland the SNP came to power in 2007, having won just a single seat more than Labour in that year’s Scottish Parliament election. The SNP has retained power ever since and is on course to win again in May. So far as the Scottish Parliament is concerned, it is now the natural party of government, even though the state of public services can be criticised.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru is on the verge of winning the most seats in the Senedd, thanks largely to the decision of many former Labour voters to switch their support tactically to keep Reform out of power. Supporting Plaid Cymru for such voters could become not just a one-off but a habit, which would obviously harm Labour’s chance of a revival.

Plaid’s strategy is to take power in May and demonstrate that it can govern competently before there is any question of a referendum on Welsh independence, which wouldn’t happen in their first term of office anyway.

There are, therefore, many questions that are at present imponderable. To a large extent, the political future of Wales is likely to be influenced by the performance and behaviour of Reform UK once they have a sizeable group of MSs elected.

Will they be capable and willing to participate in the workaday business of the Senedd, reading reports and contributing to committee discussions, which are often far from glamorous? Or will they engage in performative gimmicks of the kind Nigel Farage used to favour when he led the UKIP group at the European Parliament?

Fracture

Will the Reform group fracture amid clashing egos, as the seven-strong UKIP group did after being elected to the Senedd in 2016? The Reform Senedd group is likely to be considerably larger, and the fracturing of the official opposition would therefore have a greater impact.

Will Reform lose more support as the 2029 general election gets closer, and to what extent will fallings-out between Farage and the party’s other senior figures have a knock-on effect in Wales?

Given Farage’s past history at the European Parliament and in other contexts, the likelihood of implosion seems quite high. But if that happened, would Welsh politics revert to how it was before, or would there be some new realignment?

These are questions to ponder not just now, but in the aftermath of May’s election.