Grown-Up Politics
Ben Wildsmith
This week’s YouGov poll for Westminster voting intention showed Reform UK comfortably ahead and the Conservatives tied with Labour on 17%, which represents the governing party’s lowest ever showing with that polling company.
Zack Polanski’s successful tour of media outlets since taking charge of the Greens has boosted them to within one point of the gruesome twosome. Red and blue are beginning to look decidedly 20th Century.
However Labour tries to reposition itself now, it’s hard to see how even mildly left wing voters will forgive the attempted austerity of Starmer’s first year in power.
Reform’s capture of the right in UK politics looks to be solidifying, so the unknown factor is how the left organises itself in response.
The recent election in Caerphilly demonstrated two important features of the contemporary electorate. Firstly, we’ve learned how to game the first-past-the-post system that guaranteed two-party politics for so long. Whilst Reform seems to have inherited much of the Conservatives’ tribal appeal to voters on the right, those to the left of it are ready to lend their votes as required to prevent a Reform victory.
Secondly, Lindsay Whittle’s successful campaign proved the effectiveness of localism when offered in opposition to nationalism.
Instructive
Here in Cymru, we’ll need to learn how to maximise the effectiveness of our votes in a wholly new system next spring but the experience in Caerphilly is instructive as far as the next General Election is concerned and who knows when events might force one of those?
The Caerphilly electorate’s willingness to cooperate behind a strong candidate should be a wake-up call to the contending parties on the left. That flexibility demonstrates a mature approach to politics that voters will expect to see parties embracing as we go forward.
If Reform scores victories because of a reluctance on the part of opposing parties to enter into electoral pacts, they will not be forgiven when Trumpite policies come to our streets.
If Plaid Cymru managed to be the grown-up in the room in Caerphilly, the stuttering birth of ‘Your Party’ suggests it will be more of a problem child.
After a phantom launch, of which one co-leader seemed to be oblivious, confusion over the ownership of funds and data has led to contradictory statements to the press and an atmosphere of chaos that is evidenced by despairing posts from members on the group’s various social media pages.
This, remember, is before the party has even started to discuss policies. Coherent positions on topics like gender ID and NATO membership will not emerge painlessly from grassroots discussions. Without the guiding hand of disciplined leadership, People’s Front of Judea-style squabbling seems inevitable.
Deficit of experience
As the traditional parties seem set to fade into history, there will be a deficit of experience in UK politics. Reform’s success in local elections could transpire to be the party’s Achilles heel. Across the UK, Reform is finding out that cutting costs in local government is near on impossible after years of austerity which has persisted at council level even as it has receded in central government.
As Reform councils concede they will have to raise Council Tax, resignations are beginning, along with tales of infighting and general unprofessionalism.
These are the threads that opposition on the left can tug at, but to do so effectively, student politics must be left behind.
Across the UK, the Lib-Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru, and whatever emerges from ‘Your Party’ need to be realistic about who can win and where. Even under our new d’Hondt system for Senedd elections, the left must not split the vote so catastrophically in close constituencies that no left candidate reaches the threshold for seat allocation.
The electorate in Caerphilly proved that 21st century politics is a sophisticated business and that people have grown past tribal loyalties to prioritise values that are under threat from populists.
Such an electorate deserves serious politicians who are similarly prepared to do what’s required in the service of decency.
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Why a plug for Zack Polanski? The Green Party’s 1.5% did pip the LibDems, both were perhaps squeezed by people wanting to stop ReformUK. but 500 votes signifies irrelevance.
Because Greens are probably the ONLY party currently driving their own agenda rather than reacting to Deform’s. Green and PC are also the ONLY truly fully inclusive parties in the whole of the UK. Polanski also backs Cymru’s aspirations for independence. Which I think is more than Plaid do. Green are level pegging with Starmerite Labour and the Tories and on an upward trajectory as the others are plummeting. Green could well be the main opposition to Deform in the next GE so long as Corbyn’s Last of the Summer Whine transphobic misogynisitc grandads and landlords don’t trundle in and… Read more »
Your final sentence captures the real dynamic here. In Wales and Scotland, there is the PC and SNP option, not available in England. So the savvy Mr Polanski is hoovering up the anti- Reform vote there whilst the two old deadbeats wither away.
In England the Lib Dems are also doing well and taking the centre left to centre right vote. This is a problem because unless the Dems and the Greens do a deal they’ll split the anti-Reform vote and gift Westminster to Reform.
Fair point but the Libs are largely present in the shire counties whereas the Greens seem to be stronger in urban areas?
I hope you aren’t planning to vote Green here in Cymru for the next general election , because unless you live in a rock-solid PC constituency, you risk handing victory to reform by diluting the PC vote.
In May it’s a different game because of the new voting system. There’s a long way to go until the next Westminster election, and a good chance a Russian Snowden will blow the whole thing open before that.
I suppose year 2 (of 4 to 5) can be classed as mid term blues period, where the masses who mandated a 5 year government focus on working, while others with time on their hands discuss protest votes demanding the usual lurches to the left, or right.
Boris achieved this and we know what calamity he brought, Corbyn failed but we can envisage his governance from Your Fruit & Nut Party, where even those to the left admit the lunacy.