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Opinion

Has Welsh Labour lost the ability to represent the interests of Wales?

29 Mar 2025 7 minute read
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer with First Minister Eluned Morgan. Photo Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

Martin Shipton

Evidence is emerging that Welsh Labour’s blind panic over the rise of Reform UK is seriously compromising its ability to represent the interests of Wales.

The party’s broken-record style assertion that two Labour governments – one in Westminster, the other in Cardiff – are working together to deliver for Wales no longer seems credible, if it ever did.

Wales is the poorest UK country and has a higher proportion of disabled and sick claimants than elsewhere. If the two governments were genuinely working in harmony together, it might seem reasonable to expect that, at the very least, Rachel Reeves or even Keir Starmer himself would enter a dialogue with Eluned Morgan about the cuts that were widely trailed before the confirmatory announcement this week.

But no. Instead we had a series of mishaps that demonstrated how hollow the claim of working together in Wales’ interests really is.

‘Reserving judgement’

Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens told journalists that the First Minister was fully behind the cuts, while the First Minister herself told the Senedd committee scrutinising her that she was reserving judgement until getting an impact assessment on the implications for Welsh claimants. Meanwhile Baroness Morgan was unable to say who she’d spoken to about the cuts in the Downing Street policy unit. What’s clear is that there had been no conversation with Reeves or Starmer.

There is, in fact, no hard evidence that our First Minister has been able to change the mind of the Prime Minister about anything.

She has previously told how every time she meets him, she badgers him about the injustice of HS2, whose misdesignation as an England and Wales rail project has already robbed Wales of hundreds of millions of pounds in Treasury funding before a metre of new track has been laid.

Viewed most charitably, the UK Government’s attitude towards the Welsh Government seems to be that of a relatively well-off individual who regards their poorer country cousin as a bit of a time-wasting nuisance who is constantly hovering outside with a begging bowl.

The emphasis is on the adjective ‘relatively’ because the wealthier relative has in fact fallen on hard times and is having to adjust their own spending accordingly.

In Wales, of course, we should be viewing the situation differently. We’re not offering up a begging bowl, but demanding our fair share of what’s available.

Fair finances

Since democratic devolution was inaugurated in 1999, Wales has been pressing for a fairer financial deal based on social need. We’ve become well-versed in the workings of the Barnett formula, which hasn’t served us well over the decades, but which has been tweaked to ensure a minimum below which allocations can’t be dropped.

But Westminster has stuck to its guns in refusing to reclassify HS2 so we get the money that should rightfully be ours, or to devolve the Crown Estate to Wales, as the Senedd and so far 19 of the 22 local authorities have demanded.

Now a former Welsh Labour MP has been in touch with me to flag a further funding injustice that grotesquely suggests that the health service in Wales would receive more money if Wales was part of England.

Until the 2024 general election, Geraint Davies represented Swansea West at Westminster. He’s homed in on a House of Lords report and some research done at the University of Stirling to illustrate the point that Wales’ health service would be funded at a higher level if Wales was an English region.

In 2009 a Lords committee examined the Barnett formula, which changes allocations to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in line with population growth, and recommended that funding should instead be calculated on the basis of need, using indicators like the age of the population, income levels, the prevalence of ill-health and disability, and local rates of unemployment.

Later researchers at Stirling established that if the UK Government switched to a needs-based funding arrangement, Wales could spend £181 more per person on healthcare each year.

Under the Barnett formula, Wales received £2,127 per head to spend on health, £21 more than England got.

Disparity

However, the disparity in funding terms would be much greater if allocations were based on need.

In fact, a needs-based allocation of health funding does already exist in the UK. But it’s not used by Westminster to allocate funding to the nations of the UK. It’s used by NHS England and NHS Scotland to allocate funds internally among their own primary care trusts.

England and Scotland use slightly different methods, but the idea is roughly similar: areas that have more elderly people, more children, higher mortality rates and higher economic deprivation will get more money to spend per person.

In 2015-16, it was calculated that, according to NHS England’s assessment of needs, the NHS in Wales would need to spend 9.7% more per person than England to meet the needs of the Welsh population. In cash terms, that meant £2,310 per head in Wales, against £2,106 in England.

Mr Davies said: “While that detailed calculation was made a few years ago, the situation remains the same today. It is ridiculous that Wales would get more money if it was an English region. This is something people need to understand and campaign on.”

Dividends

In the current climate it seems unlikely that Welsh Labour will take up the gauntlet and press vigorously the case for Wales. It is too busy trying to pretend that the partnership between it and UK Labour is on the verge of delivering dividends – indeed, that the good times have already arrived, with dips in hospital waiting times for two successive months.

But not many are convinced. Welsh Labour is spooked by Reform and doesn’t know how to respond to its challenge. Instead, it’s resorting to formulaic attacks on Plaid Cymru as the party of separation, with a silly graphic showing Wales drifting off towards Ireland, a nation significantly more prosperous than the UK.

Labour are the real separatists, having signed up to Brexit, which is having a hugely negative impact on the UK economy.

The Office for Budget Responsibility stated in the report relied upon by Rachel Reeves in delivering her Spring Statement: “ Weak growth in imports and exports over the medium term partly reflect the continuing impact of Brexit, which we expect to reduce the overall trade intensity of the UK economy by 15% in the long term.”

Hemmed in by her self-imposed fiscal rules, Reeves can’t even make meaningful moves towards realigning the UK with the EU as a bulwark against the spiteful narcissism of Donald Trump.

Tragic

It is richly ironic, as well as desperately tragic, that having hitched Labour to the Brexit bandwagon, Starmer is playing right into the hands of Nigel Farage, who launched the chaos in the first place.

Thanks to Morgan McSweeney, now his chief of staff, Starmer had a plan to get elected.

But he clearly had no plan about how to run Britain and fend off a right-wing populist like Farage who has surely caused enough damage already.


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Jane Leach
Jane Leach
15 days ago

If Welsh Labour want to remain in power they should split completely from Starmers so called Labour Party. The latest attacks on those who struggle with the two child cap the winter fuel allowance and his war on democratic protest. His support for genocide seems to get stronger after each war crime committed by Israel. Do Welsh Labour even care that Streeting is determined to sell our NHS as he and other cabinet members accept large donations from private health companies and Israel. The fact that they claim to support the latest cuts is reason enough not to support them.… Read more »

John Ellis
John Ellis
15 days ago
Reply to  Jane Leach

I doubt whether Welsh Labour – or for that matter Westminster Labour either – does actually want to ‘sell our NHS’, as any overt suggestion of a will to do so would surely be electoral suicide. But I do think that the Labour party these days is paralyzed by fear of the clout of the right in British politics, given that the right has the overwhelming and very effective support of the mass media in the UK. And they know that voters are swayed by that. But all that means that Labour can’t now be the radical reforming influence in… Read more »

Tucker
Tucker
14 days ago
Reply to  John Ellis

Then why did the current leader and Health Secretary take so much money from private health care companies?

John Ellis
John Ellis
14 days ago
Reply to  Tucker

Did they? I wasn’t aware.

Care to share the evidence for that?

John Ellis
John Ellis
14 days ago
Reply to  Tucker

I see that most of your evidence appears to be based on views expressed on skawkbox. I’ve heard of it, but it’s not a source with which I’m really familiar.

So I resorted to Wikipedia, which from past experience I do tend to trust; and from that source I get the impression that skawkbox has – how should I put it? – a not entirely unsullied reputation when it comes to established accuracy.

So I still reserve judgement.

Tucker
Tucker
14 days ago
Reply to  John Ellis

How about the other publications I’ve posted. Are you claiming the national Scot or the Good Law project as liars too? Maybe do an Internet search yourself or check the UK parliaments own website to see where Wes received donations from. It’s all there

Last edited 14 days ago by Tucker
John Ellis
John Ellis
13 days ago
Reply to  Tucker

Easy to explain. I noticed that most of your search quotations emanated from skwawkbox, a source of which I’ve heard, but know rather little about.

So I searched for it on line, and found that Wikipedia – a source which from experience I do trust and, indeed, to which I sometimes donate – has expressed a view, in terms of reliability and veracity.

Wikipedia’s view seems to be that skawkbox isn’t entirely reliable. So, inevitably, my response has been somewhat coloured by that fact.

Llew Gruffudd
Llew Gruffudd
13 days ago
Reply to  John Ellis

The Register of Interests for Wes Streeting shows that donations from individuals and companies with connections to private healthcare, donated significant monies to the Health Secretary. Peter Hearn who owns a number of companies dealing with executive recruitment, including to the NHS, Sir Trevor Chinn, a senior adviser to company with major holdings in private healthcare. Kevin Craig a political consultant, who advises a Swiss/ French firm who provides temporary staff to the NHS. The donations from these three amounted to almost £80000 and then I lost interest. Peter Hearn also donated to Yvette Cooper the Home Secretary. I hope… Read more »

John Ellis
John Ellis
13 days ago
Reply to  Llew Gruffudd

That’s useful, and I’ll both explore and ponder it. Thank you.

Cwm Rhondda
Cwm Rhondda
11 days ago
Reply to  Jane Leach

Welsh Labour is an oxymoron.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
15 days ago

Princess Eluned was never programmed to be of use to Cymru, quite the reverse…

Purely a sea anchor placed by Clark and Morgan to arrest any progress beyond the London benchmark…

And now she has allowed the Senedd to become a hotbed of Cult Worship, who will rid us of these soul snatchers…their stated purpose…!

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
15 days ago
Reply to  Mab Meirion

The Met police raided a ‘Quaker’ meeting house in central London over feared protest against the un-Holy Land…a Clark ‘first’…never has a ‘Friends’ meeting been raided before, are they going to war against the Sally Army too…No 10 has an Irish Republican giving orders…!

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
14 days ago
Reply to  Mab Meirion

How more silent a protester can one imagine than a ‘Friend’…

“but m’lud, it was a deadly silence”…

The force/gov has gone rogue again…

J Jones
J Jones
15 days ago

Extreme political posturing from Llyr Gruffydd goes into turbo drive, as if there’s an election on the way? Politicians have a complete transformation from when they’re electioneering to when they or their party has responsibility to holds the purse strings. As well as Gruffydd’s political posturing, the other ‘activity’ at the moment going into turbo drive is the mass of youngsters who have absolutely no intention of working. So by definition not the ‘working’ class’, just individuals who believe money for others having life saving operations should be diverted to their bank accounts, so they can permanently sign up to… Read more »

Undecided
Undecided
15 days ago
Reply to  J Jones

All politicians posture, particularly in the run up to elections. But all Llyr Gruffydd was doing was asking basic questions which the First Minister could not answer. It’s a miserable state of affairs for a national Parliament.,

Geraint
Geraint
15 days ago

Eluned Morgan is fast approaching the position where John Major was in the the 1990s where he was in office but not in power.

Frank
Frank
15 days ago

The way the Westminster government is treating Cymru is verging on racist. They would really like to eliminate the country off the map so they could call it all England. Currently they are invading us by buying up our houses everywhere. True, it is the Cymry selling them the properties but how can that be stopped? If we achieved independence we would struggle for a few years but how could we be possibly worse off? We are already struggling!! It’s a no-brainer.

Ann
Ann
12 days ago
Reply to  Frank

You are correct – it is a no-brainer. What currency would an independent Wales use? It couldn’t share sterling with England, as it is not possible for two independent countries, with potentially conflicting policies, to depend on the same central bank (the Bank of England). Wales’ only hope would be to join the EU and adopt the euro, and I am not at all certain that the EU would accept a small country that couldn’t pay into central coffers. Why on earth do you think that Nicola Sturgeon wouldn’t openly address the issue of currency when campaigning for Scottish independence?

Owain Gwynedd
Owain Gwynedd
11 days ago
Reply to  Ann

Ann there are plenty of countries that do not have their own currencies. Apparently the US dollar is legal in 27 other countries, eg Panama which does not its own currency. Others peg their own to that currency to the dollar or as the UK did with the Euro at one time, Indeed all the eurozone’s currencies were pegged to a standard before the issue of the euro. So we can use Sterling or the dollar or euro or cowrie shells

Llew Gruffudd
Llew Gruffudd
10 days ago
Reply to  Owain Gwynedd

Why wouldn’t Wales have its own currency, just like 163 other countries

Owain Gwynedd
Owain Gwynedd
11 days ago
Reply to  Ann

Our second nearest neighbour, Southern Ireland used Sterling from 1922 till 1928, when they issued their own currency that was pegged with exact parity with Sterling, making it effectively the same currency’s until 1979.

paul-neath
paul-neath
15 days ago

Westminster and the Senedd offers Wales the Red Tories, Blue Tories, Liberal Liars and the Scum of Reform.. Vote Plaid Cymru. Its not Rocket Science!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

John Ellis
John Ellis
15 days ago

‘The party’s broken-record style assertion that two Labour governments – one in Westminster, the other in Cardiff – are working together to deliver for Wales no longer seems credible, if it ever did.’ I think that it did – if sometimes only just about! – seem credible when Mark Drakeford led the Welsh government. He generally managed to walk the tight-rope of seeming simultaneously to stand for the distinctive interests of the Welsh nation while not diluting a genuine commitment to the Labour party. But neither of his two successors have managed that tension effectively. Eluned Morgan has arguably appeared… Read more »

Undecided
Undecided
15 days ago
Reply to  John Ellis

Drakeford did not have a Labour Government at the other end of the M4. Easy gig.

John Ellis
John Ellis
14 days ago
Reply to  Undecided

Not sure that it was always wholly an ‘easy gig’ for Drakeford; but even so I accept that there’s a relevance to your assertion.

Gareth
Gareth
15 days ago

No, they have not lost it. They always had it and will have in the future, the fact that they never chose to represent the interests of Cymru before Labour or the UK Gov is nothing new, and I can never see it changing. They are a unionist party after all.

HarrisR
HarrisR
15 days ago

As Starmer’s government is most definitely Neo Blairite, in its ideology and personnel, my impression is that Wales is looked upon from the Starmer apparatus much as Tony Blair did, famously, Wales, total “Wa*nkers”. (Over the election of Rhodri Morgan). Only of consideration when they exhibit dog like obedience politically and never bite. Meanwhile the Baroness nods this way and that, sends perfumed notes on lilac paper which go straight in Starmer’s bin even if they ever leave Cardiff. We are in for a terrible reckoning and it’s only just begun. As the song goes.

Welshman28
Welshman28
14 days ago

welsh Labour lost the ability to represent Wales interests years ago and represent the Welsh people too

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
14 days ago

When you have Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan continually fail to represent Wales interests, especially when it comes to devolution sought. And seeing she once admitted to feeling self conscious about bothering her master Keir Starmer for Wales HS2 consequential denied. Now know that she & Welsh Labour are incapable of representing Wales interests in cabinet or Whitehall. So it’s high time that Plaid Cymru as Welsh Government and Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister took the reigns and broke those chains. #Senedd2026 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

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