How stable will the next Welsh Government be?

Jonathan Edwards

For most of the devolution age there has been an informal understanding between Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats.

Firstly, apart from a fleeting experiment following the 2007 election, these parties have worked on the basis of shutting the Conservative Party away from power.

More importantly, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats have recognised Labour’s political hegemony over Wales and have – when required – willingly played a constructive role in ensuring that our country had a functioning government.

The one aberration of naked political opportunism was the decision of Rhun ap Iorwerth on becoming Plaid leader to end the Cooperation Agreement with Labour in the last Senedd. It has proven to be tactically clever, helping Plaid displace Labour as the leader of the ‘progressive’ bloc in Wales, which is the key to the First Minister’s office.

Whether it proves to be strategically as astute in the long term will very much depend on the approach towards the Labour Party that emerges in Wales after the crushing defeat that awaits it.

Performing a supporting role for the greater good of devolved governance was a no-brainer for Plaid Cymru as a party. Its raison d’etre as a party is to develop Wales as a political nation. If that required giving up short-term party gains, so be it.

Rhun ap Iorwerth has ripped up the party playbook and gambled all on becoming First Minister. It looks like it may pay off spectacularly in a week’s time, even if Reform win the most seats.

What is less clear is whether Mr ap Iorwerth can deliver stable governance in the aftermath of the election.

To endure in office, governments need to be able to survive confidence votes and deliver annual budgets.

My article last week examined some of the strategic considerations facing a new Plaid government based on the likely election result. It is worth revisiting those options and perhaps giving them a stability rating.

This week, I’ll start with a Plaid Cymru minority administration as this is the stated preferred aim of the party’s leadership. Next week I’ll delve deeper into the coalition options I discussed in the previous article.

Firstly, a Plaid minority administration. Operating without a majority is difficult by its very nature as all votes are potential knife edge divisions requiring significant wheeling and dealing to get business through. Carefully crafted opposition motions which can unite the non-governing parties pose a world of trouble. An inability to win votes causes instability. The governing party wouldn’t be able to function.

A minority administration also empowers government backbenchers. Considering the powerful Plaid left-wing faction that will soon be elected to the Senedd, together with their control of the voluntary party, Rhun ap Iorwerth would be a brave man to pursue a path that empowers his internal opponents.

Passive behaviour

He should not see their passive behaviour in the run-up to the election as a sign that they have been tamed. The Plaid left is completely internally focused and will be waiting for their opportunity. They have gained a taste for drawing blood in recent years, so expect fireworks if they have an opportunity to flex their muscles.

If the polls begin to slide either on a party basis or on the constitutional question, things will get tasty very quickly.

Perhaps one of the most intriguing developments of the next Senedd will be who within Plaid develops as the leader of the left-wing faction. Will it be someone from the existing shadow cabinet such as Mabon ap Gwynfor? Has Adam Price redeemed himself in the eyes of the Plaid left? Or will it be a newcomer such as Carrie Harper or party Chair Marc Jones?

It will be fascinating to see how Rhun ap Iorwerth manages the situation.

Concessions

A Plaid minority government will find its legislative programme held at mercy by opposition parties who will surely demand significant concessions for their support.

The expanded Senedd might find itself in a barren government legislative environment which perhaps explains the inertia of the first 100-day plan published by the party. Reviews upon reviews do not require Senedd approval.

Apart from the annual Budget, where a minority government will have to find a way of getting either abstentions or support from opponents, the Senedd could quickly resemble an uninspiring talking shop based on a programme of Welsh Government statements taking aim at Westminster for the ills of the nation.

Plaid has a ready-made hit list of grievances taking up a large chunk of the manifesto and will want to use their time in government to damage the UK Government. However, the “Wales good, Westminster bad” strategy only works if you are delivering tangible domestic gains.

Ben Wildsmith in these pages has forcefully made the case that Plaid should run a minority government as a first preference choice. His argument that Plaid should dare Labour and the Greens to vote down the Welsh Government and align themselves with Reform and the Tories is a valid one.

We would then be entering a blame game. Who would the people of our country condemn in such a scenario? Opposition parties for being unconstructive or the Welsh Government for being impotent?

Surely Plaid will not want to be in a position that sees perhaps their one chance of leading the nation wasted.

It will be inheriting a mess in many of its areas of responsibility, and the people of our country rightly expect delivery. Will it be viable in the long term for Plaid to run a government that is treading water?

I can see a case for Plaid Cymru to go it alone initially. With great skill it need not be inherently unstable.

Advice

I will finish by informing readers of some of the best pieces of advice I received as a new MP. When I asked a seasoned colleague what to do in the event of a difficult vote, his advice to me was: “Jonathan, if in doubt always vote No”.

In other words, only support the government if you must as it is always easier to justify voting against as opposed to voting in favour of something. This is the case even if you think the government’s proposals are well meaning.

As another veteran MP told me after I thought my cross-party caucus had gained a concession: “They can always be pushed further!”

Going alone would be a very brave move for Rhun ap Iorwerth. His gamble to end the Cooperation Agreement looks like it will pay off handsomely. Will he throw the dice once more and dare the combined opposition to bring down his government?

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010 – 2024