How the Scottish Parliament election could determine the constitutional future of Wales

Martin Shipton

With tedious predictability, the Conservatives are playing the anti-independence card during the Senedd election campaign.

The lads who run Andrew RT Davies’s social media accounts think it clever to add to every mention of Plaid Cymru the term “separatists”. It’s meant to be pejorative, but it loses any power it may have had when you recall that RT was one of the leading separatists at the time of the Brexit referendum.

He remains so as a ranting minion of GB News and the Daily Express.

The other day, however, RT’s successor as leader of the Tory Senedd group, Darren Millar, went a step further.

Pouncing on some comments from Nigel Farage to the effect that he would be relaxed about another referendum on Scottish independence, Millar has written to Farage demanding clarity over his position on the future of the United Kingdom Union and accusing him of creating unnecessary uncertainty ahead of the Senedd election.

In a press release, Millar said: “It is deeply concerning that Nigel Farage has suggested that another Scottish independence referendum is ‘quite reasonable’.

“The people of Wales deserve clarity. If Nigel Farage believes a referendum on Scottish independence is reasonable, does he also believe the same applies to Wales?

“With Plaid Cymru and the Greens openly supporting Welsh independence, and Labour sleepwalking towards it, only the Welsh Conservatives can be trusted to protect the Union and keep Wales strong within the UK.”

There are a number of points to be made about this.

Clearly Millar is aiming his barb about Farage at voters who are floating between the Tories and Reform. It can be safely assumed that all but a tiny proportion of them are hostile to the notion of Welsh independence and that most of them are antagonistic to the existence of the Senedd too.

Another point to be made is that Farage’s nonchalance about the possible secession of Scotland from the UK is consistent with the view of his creation Reform as an English nationalist party. After a surprising surge in support for Reform in Scotland, that has now tapered off and the party is likely to come a distant third in the Scottish Parliament election behind the SNP and Labour.

From Farage’s point of view, the failure of Reform to make a significant breakthrough in Scotland, and the fragility of support there, will be seen as a threat to the party’s ambitions, which are, of course, focussed on winning power at Westminster.

The prospect of a solid rump of anti-Reform MPs from Scotland – and Reform is likely to win no seats at all there in a first-past-the-post general election – may well persuade Farage that his party would fare better in its bid to win control of the Westminster Parliament if the Scots had their independence.

Wales is in a different position at present, because on the basis of polling it is possible that Reform could win a high proportion of first-past-the-post seats, thus aiding their pursuit of power at Westminster.

Arguably, however, the most telling conclusion to draw from Millar’s reaction to what Farage said is that it betrays his fear that independence for Scotland, and later for Wales, could actually be on the cards.

The clear implication of objecting to the holding of a referendum on Scottish independence that could break up the UK is that the vote may be won by those who would campaign for just such an outcome.

Victorious

Support for independence remains high in Scotland – higher than support for the SNP – and it is perfectly plausible that the Yes camp could emerge victorious from a referendum.

For Millar, then, the imperative to keep the Union together is more important than the democratic right of the people of Scotland to decide whether their nation should become independent or not.

Put another way, the right to self-determination is subordinate to the non-negotiable insistence that the Union be maintained, even against the will of one of its constituent countries.

Interestingly, the situation is different in relation to Northern Ireland, which is, of course, an artificially created statelet with no historical antecedence.

The Good Friday Agreement, which brought to an end what amounted to a war between the British state and the IRA – euphemistically referred to as The Troubles – requires that if it appears likely that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the UK and form part of a united Ireland, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.

This Order in Council would be necessary to hold a referendum on a united Ireland. The conditions for such a referendum would likely involve a consistent majority in opinion polls, a Catholic majority in a census, a nationalist majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, or a vote by a majority in the Assembly. However, the Secretary of State must ultimately decide whether the condition has been met.

The situation in relation to referendums on Scottish or Welsh independence is considerably more nebulous. There is nothing like the provision in the Good Friday Agreement.

Personal agreement

The 2014 referendum on Scottish independence only went ahead because what amounted to an ad hoc personal agreement was reached between UK Prime Minister David Cameron and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond.

No guarantees exist about any future referendums in Scotland or Wales, although the political make-up of the UK is likely to be uniquely different after next month’s elections.

In Scotland it is likely that there will be a majority of pro-independence MSPs elected, either SNP alone or together with the Scottish Green Party. First Minister John Swinney will argue that such an outcome represents a mandate for another independence referendum.

It is also likely that Rhun ap Iorwerth will become Wales’ first non-Labour First Minister, heading a Plaid Cymru government.

Northern Ireland already has a Sinn Fein First Minister in Michelle O’Neill and the party is very likely to win the highest number of seats in an election due to be held next year.

New territory

Three nationalist-led governments in the devolved administrations will take us into new territory.

No one sensible is suggesting that Wales should have an independence referendum soon – the Yes campaign would be heavily defeated – and of course Plaid has ruled one out in the four-year term that will commence next month.

But if Swinney gets his referendum in Scotland and goes on to win it, Darren Millar’s worst nightmare would become reality. A border poll in Northern Ireland would be more likely, and the strong possibility is that a majority of those voting wouldn’t wish to remain in a diminished UK.

Wales would then face an existential dilemma: to stay joined at the hip to England, whose imperial pretensions would have been skewered and whose politicians would be suffering from PTSD, or to make its own way in the world, hopefully with EU membership.