I am your nemesis, can you lend me a tenner?

Ben Wildsmith

You will remember that Keir Starmer’s Brutus turned out to be John Healey. By resigning over Rachel Reeves’ refusal, or inability, to approve an increase in defence spending, the then Defence Secretary opened up a front on Keir Starmer that succeeded where accusations of timidity and incompetence had failed.

When Andy Burnham appointed Healey as Chancellor, to the surprise of journalists and MPs alike, the assumption was that his demand for 3% of GDP to be spent on defence was settled. The Financial Times  report that this has been shelved until 2027 at the earliest should concern us for several reasons.

Firstly, if the former Defence Secretary can arrive at the Treasury so misinformed about the state of the nation’s finances that he has to bin the pledge over which he brought down a Prime Minister, then what has been going on in Cabinet over the last two years?

If operators at that level have been misled about our capabilities, how was the nation’s defence supposed to be planned at all?

This would be troubling enough at any point, but the news comes as tensions between Russia and Ukraine’s supporting nations escalate.

Throughout the conflict, successive Prime Ministers have positioned us at the forefront of resistance to Russia’s actions. There has been a broad political consensus here that an uncompromising stance on the invasion of Ukraine is both strategically necessary and morally correct.

Kyiv has enjoyed the ‘unwavering support’ of Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, and now Andy Burnham. Cheques have been written, guarantees issued, technology transferred, and battlefield training provided for the cause.

All of this has been done openly, underscoring the Ukrainian position that only absolute victory will end the conflict. Only last week, the PM arrived in Kyiv clutching the blueprints for Scalp missiles. Their transfer was as theatrical as it was tactical – our new PM is resolute.

The problem with performative diplomacy, however, is that it must be credible to be effective. 100-year funding pledges and wet-eyed rhetoric about western values are only as good as your enemy’s belief that you can back them up.

Belligerence without credibility is an invitation to exploit weakness, and Healey’s volte-face this week will surely been seen as such in Moscow.

Russian-speaking news channels are singling-out the UK as Russia’s prime enemy – an old colonial power that is interfering where it has no business.

Cold War

The cultural memory of the Cold War which informs so much of public opinion about Russia here, is commensurately useful as a rallying point in Russia too. Of course the UK is at the front of the queue to arm Ukraine, it has always despised Russia… the story runs. At a time when the war is hurting ordinary Russians more than ever before, the UK’s actions are arguably useful as a distraction. Putin has relied upon selling the conflict to his people as between Russia and a malevolent west. UK politicians warning us of conscription to come are doing his work for him.

It has become virtually taboo to suggest that this war will end in negotiation. No mainstream European politicians are demanding peace talks, still less offering to broker them. Even pondering the prospect will have you labelled as a useful idiot for Putin. The line remains that only total victory for Ukraine can bring security.

Responsibility

If that is our position, then projecting the UK as the nation keenest to be seen enacting it comes with a responsibility that our politicians are not fulfilling. Removing a Prime Minister on the pretext of increasing defence spending and then revealing that we can’t afford it puts us all at risk.

Our defence chiefs are unanimous that they are hopelessly under-resourced, we can no longer manufacture steel from scratch, we were unable to build HS2, our energy prices are the highest in the world.

In my view, this war will end in negotiation, as nearly all wars do. The chaos that may befall us before that, though, must be accounted for by a political class that seems unable to grasp the seriousness of the situation.

They are trying simultaneously to project power whilst pleading poverty. Our enemies know only too well which side of that contradiction holds up to scrutiny.

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