I had nearly decided to vote for Plaid Cymru – then they did this…

Llew Ap Gruffudd

The upcoming Senedd election is the most important since devolution.

Not only will it in all probability be the first where there won’t be a Welsh Labour government, but it will define Wales for the foreseeable future.

After much soul searching I had decided that I will be voting for Plaid Cymru. I am not a member of Plaid, nor am I a supporter of Plaid, but with a heavy heart and fingers crossed, I intended to vote for them. They seemed to be the best option.

Welsh Labour have failed Wales throughout devolution and the divisive, destructive, self interest of Reform, gives them no chance of my vote. So Plaid Cymru it was. I would have more enthusiasm if they didn’t have such a history of flip flopping around and if they were a little more committed to Independence. But they are the only Wales centred party and the hope is that being in government will concentrate their minds.

And then they published their plan.

When all I wanted was an end to grandstanding and unrealistic promises. No party going into government in May will transform Wales and any promise to do so is false. The present constitutional arrangement and financial settlement doesn’t allow it. Learn from the mistakes of the past and just be a sensible, realistic government, with modest but noticeable improvements in public services and the economy as an acceptable first term. Together with the groundwork towards Independence. A demonstration that a Plaid Cymru government can do well, but how much better with full
powers. And it can be achieved, even with the present constraints.

And then they decided on a 100 day plan.

What is it about 100 days that political parties get hung up on it? Reform had it in their Contract. The Labour government had it pre election. 100 day promises, meaningless and never achieved. And all I wanted was simple. Simple and achieveable,

No shouting at Westminster. All you will get is a sore throat. No more commissions and reviews. Welsh Labour has a cellar full of those. All ‘ under
consideration ‘. All that’s required is plain old positive government.

Public Service improvements.Health and social care. The public priority.When extra money is being conjured for spending on the NHS it usually means the lion’s share to hospital services. However, not only has it meant taking money from other areas, but it hasn’t worked.

Putting money into a hospital already full, doesn’t make it bigger. Nor does it remove the stress from staff already stretched. I would like to see a Plaid Cymru government switch emphasis. More emphasis and resources to social care.

Of course hospitals need more resources. More doctors, nurses, support staff, equipment and beds, but within present constraints, where are resources best concentrated to turn the present dire situation around quickly.

Social care

Social care including care homes should be taken into the NHS not left in large part to private providers.

Social care should be treated on a par with health care. Properly resourced and organised not only will there be an improvement in the wellbeing of a
significant part of the population, the elderly and infirm, but it will aid hospital services.

Care in the community. Improving the lives of those in need where they live. Increasing the social contact, clubs, meetings, exercise sessions. Care homes in the NHS run by local health boards and councils. All integrated within the NHS

The improved wellbeing from increased activities and support will inevitably lead to less hospital admissions from this sector. It will need more staff, more money, but significantly less than that presently being given to hospitals. At the other end, the inability to discharge patients due to lack of a care plan will be ended,

The combination of social care measures will mean, less admission due to lack of care in the community, removal of bed blocking and the freeing up of hospital resources, freeing up of ambulance waiting and relief of hospital staff stress. More hospital treatments carried out and shorter waiting times.
Ambulances doing what ambulances are meant to do. All within the present budgets. Not perfect, but noticeable improvements.

Education

Welsh education standards are poor by any measure. Even within the mediocre standards of the UK, Wales still performs below average. The Institute for Fiscal Studies [ IFS ] has reported on Welsh education standards and have dismissed poverty, or financial restraints as a reason. They cite poor regions of England, with similar or worse poverty levels and finances, as performing far better.

The reason, they say, for Wales’ educational problems is government policy. Estyn, the inspection body in Wales confirms this by criticizing inconsistent and mixed priorities and significant weaknesses in the development of basics reading, mathematics and digital.

There are long term concerns about the quality of teacher training and that it is not equipping teachers in the teaching of reading and in specialist areas.

The recruitment of teachers with skills are concerns, but seems at odds with the policy of offering experienced teachers redundancy packages when the class size reduces. And then there’s the phonics versus cued method of primary level teaching, with the Welsh government making no decision either way, but as with every other recommendation ‘will give it consideration’.

So there you are Plaid. Improvements are not going to cost the earth, nor are children backgrounds the cause of poor performance. It’s government policy, giving coherent and Wales wide policies using best practice, but most importantly to quote Estyn ‘ government should lead on best teaching practice and to provide the data from which progress can be measured.

It should also be aware, a problem with the present government, that it is teachers and teachers skills that are central and without which no policy will succeed. These are the two main priorities for the public and although housing, environment, culture and local services will need attention, improvements in those two areas would be seen as real progress. Those and the economy.

Economy

If Plaid goes into government with an economic plan, it will already be one up on Welsh Labour’s previous 26 years. No big promises, no transformation pledges, it cannot be done under the present financial arrangements.

In exchange for my vote I would like to see modest but noticeable improvements and the groundwork being prepared for a sovereign state. A plan that involves an economic strategy, within the present constraints, showing clear policy and loosening the dependence on the perceived financial transfers from the UK government – and it can be done.

Economic strategy

The present reliance on money transfers from Westminster is as a result of the present Welsh government abdicating the responsibility for a regional strategic plan.

Wales GDP has remained without real growth (except for inflation) for the period of devolution. Wales’ average wage level is presently 10% lower than the UK average and has only risen to that level due to minimum wage policy.

Wales productivity level is at 84% of the UK average, which itself is mediocre and in the lower half of OECD countries. Low investment in innovation, research and development. Lack of a coherent and coordinated plan for skills training. The attraction of Wales being no more than low wage levels and government grants.

A reasonable start for a new government, would be a reversal of this economic neglect. Innovation, research and development finance has been repeatedly plundered by the present Welsh government, in favour of more headline areas and yet these are the very investments that drive the economy, create wealth.

Wales invests only 65% of the UK average and less than 50% of the EU average in these. Skills and technology have also been neglected with government policy, being in the words of the industry uncoordinated and incoherent. It is therefore reasonable to assume that the proper investment and a considered and coordinated plan would lead to benefits. And what benefits. Wales wage levels reaching that of the UK average, would yield, according to the Wales Governance Centre, £5.6 billion per year in increased tax revenues.

A report by Nat West stated that if Wales productivity was at the UK average, the Welsh economy would gain £1.7 billion. A Deloittes finding is that, if Wales productivity was at the EU average, it would increase the Welsh economy by £6.2 billion.

In addition there will be growth that would follow from these improvements – and all down to the right policy decisions.

So in just these two areas, with a change in investment policy , would increase Wales wealth by in excess of between £7.3 billion and £11.8 billion plus the growth factor.

This is money for improvements to public services, plus remove the reliance on financial transfers from Westminster. Together with the improvements to Health and Education. That would do for me.

Plaid would be seen as a true party of government and to have started to lay the foundations of an Independent Wales.

They will have loosened the reliance on Westminster and could rightly say, if we can make these improvements with the limited tools, what can we achieve, with full control.

So why didn’t Plaid stick to simple. Simple and achievable.

Please Plaid, do not revert to type. My worst fears realised.

Otherwise for me, it’s back to the ranks of the undecided.