If Andy Burnham’s pro-devolution rhetoric turns out to mean nothing for Wales, Welsh Labour will not recover from the drubbing it got in May

Martin Shipton

Our two new leaders have reasonable grounds to feel optimistic this weekend.

Following Andy Burnham’s entry to two-tier Downing Street (London and Manchester), Labour is snapping at the heels of Reform UK in Britain-wide polls, while a Survation poll released on Friday showed Plaid Cymru with 42% support in a Westminster election, well ahead of the Conservatives on 21%, Labour on 17%, Reform on 15%, the Lib Dems and Greens on 3% each and Restore Britain on 1%.

Early decisions made by Burnham contrast with those taken by Starmer, which involved punishing older people and welfare recipients.

Managing the UK for one day a week from Number 10 North is easy to dismiss as a gimmick, but those making the criticism are locked into a London-centric way of seeing that has helped exacerbate geographical inequalities over many years.

Let’s give Burnham the benefit of the doubt that it will lead to tangible change rather than simply be an empty gesture.

Cutting VAT on domestic electricity bills is a small positive gesture which is nevertheless welcome, although energy bills are too high and Burnham should be forcing companies to lower them both for domestic consumers and businesses.

The idea of reducing business rates for pubs is a good one, based on the argument that they perform a valuable social function in bringing people together. Likewise, I agree with Burnham that businesses which can legitimately be accused of committing social harm – like gambling establishments and vape shops – should have their business rates increased. This is an approach that could be considered for Wales.

Engaging

Both Andy Burnham and Rhun ap Iorwerth come across as engaging personalities with a positive approach to politics – an attitude that served them well in the Makerfield by-election and the Senedd election respectively.

Taken together, the two elections can be seen as the turning point for Reform UK, which is now on a downward trajectory. More and more people are seeing Farage for the self-seeking charlatan that he is.

Of course there are still videos to be seen on social media that show him being fawned over by people who appear to have less than half a brain, but that’s in keeping with the demographic he appeals to, as evidenced consistently in polling data.

Everyone with a modicum of common sense can see through his ruse in calling a by-election as a means of avoiding scrutiny of his undeclared £5m “personal gift” from a political donor. His claim that the billionaire crypto-currency magnate who gave him the money expected nothing in return will only be believed by idiots.

Uninspiring

It is particularly heartening to see Reform’s level of support sliding in Wales. Led by the uninspiring Dan Thomas, who got a free transfer from England, members of the 34-strong Reform Senedd group are constantly exposing themselves for the fools they are. Some seem to take pride in being obnoxious and think they are clever by playing out their tired culture wars for the diminishing minority who appreciate their antics. It will get them nowhere. Fundamentally they are a bunch of racists, who deserve to be called out.

Ap Iorwerth responds to them appropriately by refusing to engage in banter with them on their level.

There are already signs that the Reform group is restive. As harmful revelations continue about Farage and support continues to dip, we can expect rows and defections.

Just as interesting will be how the relationship develops between Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour.

Progressive majority

Before the Senedd election and in its immediate aftermath, there was an assumption that there would be a progressive majority underpinned by a partnership of some kind between these two parties.

Talks were held before the election between Mark Drakeford and Adam Price, and such was the expectation. But things haven’t worked out that way. The post-election Labour group is far less keen on progressing devolution than the larger group that existed before the likes of Drakeford stood down and others failed to get re-elected.

How will that play out electorally in Wales?

Labour clearly hopes that having a more presentable leader than Starmer will see many of their former supporters who deserted them for Plaid at the Senedd election return to the fold.

This is based on the assumption that tangible improvements in people’s standard of living will see them forgive Labour for its shortcomings in the two-year Starmer period. It is also assumed that people don’t care about constitutional matters and where power lies.

Simplistic

I believe this is far too simplistic, and in one respect completely wrong. It is presumptuous to think that most people’s standard of living will rise appreciably in the next two or three years.

The long years of austerity and below inflation pay rises that followed on from the financial crash in 2008 left people poorer and has had a negative impact on the economy – greatly exacerbated, it has to be said, by Brexit. There is no economic miracle on the horizon to counter that.

At the same time, there are those who underestimate the power of the political narrative encapsulated in the slogan “Standing up for Wales”. It worked for Welsh Labour long enough until Starmer got elected and made a habit of rejecting what the Labour Welsh Government asked for.

Labour at Westminster became Continuity Tory, so far as many people in Wales were concerned.

Now Plaid Cymru, led by an articulate, fresh and likeable politician, has taken on the “Standing up for Wales” mantle. Some deride it as grievance politics, but what politician ever saw assuaging grievances as anything but an essential element of their offer to the electorate?

When powers have been devolved to Scotland, what argument does Andy Burnham or Stephen Kinnock have to say that they should not be devolved to Wales?

According to Kinnock, powers should only be devolved if proof can be provided that devolution would make the service work better. Such an argument was never used when British colonies were given independence, so why should Wales be treated less favourably?

Many people get that and are affronted that Wales should be disadvantaged in this way.

If Andy Burnham’s pro-devolution rhetoric turns out to mean nothing for Wales, Welsh Labour will not recover from the drubbing it got in May.

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