If Welsh Labour sticks to a swivel-eyed Starmerite narrative next year, it faces humiliation at the ballot box
Martin Shipton
Welsh Labour, of course, doesn’t exist – at least not as a legal entity.
In the past that might not have mattered, but it’s now a major problem in the run-up to next May’s Senedd election.
A few days ago a friend sent me the accounts for the Scottish Labour Party. For the year ending December 31 2024, it had a surplus of just under £350,000. But the party was only solvent because it received what was described as a “national party contribution” of £777,445.
My friend commented: “Be interesting to see Welsh Labour figures which are probably very similar. Without UK party it would be in shit street.”
There are good grounds for saying that Welsh Labour is currently “in shit street” anyway, not least because of its association with UK Labour.
But it’s worth examining the relationship between Welsh Labour and UK Labour in more detail.
Website
If you go to the Electoral Commission’s website and put “Welsh Labour” in the search engine, you get a list of five donations made to political parties by English Welsh and Scottish Railway Ltd, a rail freight company formed after rail privatisation in the UK that is now a subsidiary of the German national rail company Deutsche Bahn. Three of the donations, totalling £19,000, were made to the Conservative Party and two, totalling £18,000, were made to the Labour Party. All the donations were made in 2007 and 2008.
But the most interesting consequence of the search was confirmation that Welsh Labour doesn’t exist so far as our political party regulator is concerned. It’s a brand that was carefully nurtured by Rhodri Morgan, Carwyn Jones and Mark Drakeford, but financially it is wholly dependent on subsidies from UK Labour.
My friend’s reaction was interesting: “It’s the reason why Sedgebeer and co can do what they like. They listen to their paymasters and Eluned isn’t one of them.”
Sedgebeer is Bridie Sedgebeer, Welsh Labour’s deputy general secretary and the wife of Bridgend MP Chris Elmore.
I have written previously of the Starmerite clique that runs Welsh Labour headquarters and that is doing what it can to ensure that those selected as candidates for next May’s Senedd election are Starmer loyalists.
Red Welsh Way
The clique doesn’t approve of Eluned Morgan’s “Red Welsh Way”, an attempt to revive the concept of “Clear Red Water” that distinguished Rhodri Morgan’s approach to government from that of Tony Blair’s administration in Westminster. It’s also allied with Secretary of State for Wales Jo Stevens, a born again Starmerite who has come a long way from the days when she praised Hugo Chavez of Venezuela as her political hero.
They’re with Ms Stevens when she pooh-poohs the idea of further devolution to Wales, including the Crown Estate revenues, as demanded by all 22 local authorities in Wales as well as the Welsh Government. And there’s still no chance of redesignating the HS2 rail line as an England-only project, thus triggering potentially billions of pounds in extra funding for Wales via the Barnett formula.
Half the existing Labour group won’t be standing for re-election, and some big hitters will be leaving the Senedd. The clique is doing what it can to ensure that the team of new Labour candidates offered to the electorate next May will, as much as possible and with a few notable exceptions who manage to slip through the net, be inexperienced, unlikely to come up with troublingly original ideas and disinclined to rebel.
General election
The clique’s focus, of course, is not so much on the 2026 Senedd election, but on the next general election, which will have to take place by summer 2029 at the latest. It doesn’t want any upstarts kicking off about the need for the Welsh Government to have greater powers in certain policy areas or, even more so, criticising the UK Government for letting Wales down. So far as UK Labour is concerned, it has enough of a battle to fend off the challenge from Reform UK, without having to worry about what it perceives as the enemy within.
From Eluned Morgan’s point of view, this is very bad news, because her only chance of mitigating the damage next year is to distance herself from Keir Starmer as much as possible, by playing up the “Red Welsh Way” theme as opposed to the initial offering of “two Labour governments working together for the good of Wales”, whose credibility was shattered within weeks of Starmer taking office by taking away the Winter Fuel Allowance from most pensioners.
Have they learned any lessons? Not to judge from the video posted a few days ago by a new Labour Senedd candidate, who has been promoting himself on social media relentlessly for many months.
Chris Carter, who has been shortlisted for a place on the Casnewydd Islwyn closed list, states against a background of wind noise as he walks along the riverfront boardwalk in Newport: “Hi, I’m one of the shortlisted Labour Party candidates here in the newly created constituency of Casnewydd Islwyn. I’m looking forward to meeting many of you over the coming weeks and months to talk to you about this campaign here in our city and the place that we all call home. We’ve got a tough fight here in Newport and we’ve got a tough fight in Islwyn too. But I know that together we can go out there and take on Reform, we can take on Plaid Cymru, and we can go back into government with our partners in Westminster.
“After 14 years of Tory austerity we at long last have two Labour governments working together at either end of the M4. £1.6bn of investment went into the Welsh budget last year, the best settlement since devolution began. Together with these two governments we can look forward to the future – a future filled with hope, and only Welsh Labour can deliver that future.”
Elementary mistake
Apart from making an elementary mistake about the amount of investment into the Welsh budget – the final Welsh Government budget for 2025-26 included an extra £1.6bn, taking the total to £25.018bn – the emphasis is wrong. People aren’t impressed by big numbers – they want to see improvements in public service delivery to their communities.
And, as has been demonstrated in the past, they want politicians who will stand up for Wales, if necessary when met with intransigence from politicians of the same party in Westminster. There is no hint in Mr Carter’s video that he would be prepared to do that, and no hint that he supports Eluned Morgan’s Red Welsh Way.
If Welsh Labour sticks to this swivel-eyed Starmerite narrative next year, it faces humiliation at the ballot box.
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The big question is how many places will be lost to deform at the next election? They are good at finding fault, maybe more than necessary but no proposals to improve and no idea where the funds will come from. Somehow, these issues does not seem to faze their popularity and Wales and the Welsh people are doomed.
reform councils are hitting the reality buffers already. Unfortunately we will have 4 years to suffer the idiots, lot of damage if they get any power. Expect bills to go up and health care to vanish. But they will be on display and the public can write to their reps. They will have to show their workings out as my old maths teach used to say.
Welsh Labour actually needs to be become an entity of its own. There is no such thing as Welsh Labour, it’s just Labour. Once the two diverge we might be able to see some benefits.
It is absolutely correct to state that people are not impressed by big numbers; but want to see improvements in public services. But therein lies Welsh Labour’s biggest problem. They simply haven’t done it after 26 years. Yes, Starmer and co don’t help; but ultimately they will be judged on their record – and it’s indisputably dismal.
Sadly, you’re absolutely spot on. That Reform has risen so far in Wales is the most damming of indictments on DJ Eluned and her predecessors.
They can’t even manage to get APD devolved. Unlike the other rejections, there’s no significant cost to HM Treasury. And it can’t even be used to disadvantage England thanks to Johnson’s Internal Market Act. So the only objection left is an objection to Wales being better connected to the rest of the world and attracting inward investment that Whitehall doesn’t control.
High hopes….followed by the failure to inspire Echoes in Glass: The Senedd and the Silence of PromiseIt was meant to be a turning point.The Senedd rose from Cardiff Bay with high ideals etched into its architecture—transparency, accountability, a voice for Wales. Glass walls to reflect the people. Open chambers to echo their concerns. A building that breathed democracy.But somewhere between blueprint and reality, the pulse faded.Today, the Senedd stands as a monument to promise, but a mausoleum of potential. It governs, yes. But does it inspire? Does it stir the soul of a nation that has always fought to be… Read more »
Elegantly expressed!
Yes, very elegantly put. Welsh Labour are fond of prefacing everything with “after 14 years of Tory austerity” but in my view the pulse started to fade (to borrow your phrase) in the first half of the devolution era when there was enough cash in the system to be really impactful. However they didn’t really have the appetite for it. Despite attaching labels such as “radical”, “progressive” and even the “clear red water” to policies, the opposite was usually the case and major reforms were dodged. The result is great disillusionment and Reform riding high.
In 2006, the WDA was dissolved and absorbed into the Welsh Government. The rationale? Greater democratic accountability and streamlined governance. But critics, including economists like Professor Brian Morgan, called it “the worst policy decision of the past 20 years”. The move replaced a nimble, entrepreneurial body with a more bureaucratic apparatus. Since then, economic development has been fragmented across multiple agencies—Invest Wales, Business Wales, Development Bank of Wales—but none have matched the WDA’s impact. Now they want to put up a Statue of Rhodri Morgan in Cardiff and call him ‘The Father of Wales’ I’m sure the seagulls will act… Read more »
Agreed. The WDA was far from perfect; but it had impact as you say. Rhodri Morgan was a decent man; but nowhere near as good a First Minister as many claim. That first decade or so of devolution was a massive lost opportunity on economic development, education, health and so many other policy areas.
I’m not sure the WDA could exist today because the first class flights, expensive hospitality and “jollies” to international investment conferences all on the taxpayer dime wouldn’t go down well with GB News, even if it was bringing in 100 times the investment.
There are still plenty of jollies going on; but little business being done.
Labour have been running Wales for a very long time now. They have had an ideal opportunity to show what they can do and all that I can see is they have shown that they’re not really very interested. I wonder if the Labour Party think of Wales as ‘a Labour voting area anyway so why worry about them?’ At least our present first minister is trying to stand up for wales but (especially after the fiasco of the previous idiot) I think it’s too little, too late. Starmer it would appear would like to surround himself with yes men… Read more »
‘… and all that I can see is they have shown that they’re not really very interested.’
I think that they are actually quite interested. It’s just that they haven’t proved to be all that good at it. Though in fairness I suppose the limits to the autonomy which devolution practically offers to them makes the task more challenging.
The “Not the Welsh Labour Party” are possibly heading for a self inflicted defeat next May . If there is anybody who can name five things that have improved our living standards , the NHS, improved travel communications or have given the Welsh public anything to smile about ,let us here about it .
Perhaps we need a referendum on something. But this time a multiple choice question with no easy answers and no status quo option.
In my view, it would be great to see Reform or Plaid cymru lead after at the next senedd election, so we can assess whether they are able to govern more effectively. That outcome would serve as a measure to see if they can do any better. My own suspicion is that things will not improve significantly, in fact almost ceratinly thigns will worsen. Which would push the debate in one of two directions for me: either toward deeper devolution with greater powers for wales, or toward rolling back devolution and returning more power to Westminster. As much as it… Read more »
If you’re convinced that highly centralised government is the way to deliver the best governance why don’t you book yourself on a speaking tour of the USA and advise them to abolish their states and run everything from DC.
I’ve not convinced that’s the answer at all. Did you read my post? Especially the last line re mayoral posts. Don’t get distracted, read to the end in the future.
That sai the results do speak for themselves. The highly centralised government is performing far better on education. How do you feel about that?
You spoke of “rolling back devolution and returning more power to Westminster”.
And on education, who knows how the highly centralised government is fairing because they won’t publish PISA data for their poorest regions so must be hiding them behind exceptional results in the very wealthy south east.
Always an excuse. But unfortunately the buck stops at Welsh government and they’re failing.
If you bothered to look at English results, rather than hearsay, you’ll see school attainment has risen whilst the same time Wales has dropped, despite not having regional devolution on england. You’ll also from one poor region, a school managed to send more students to Oxbridge than Eton college this year. Devolution in it’s current form is holding us back
Imagine a football tournament that worked like this.
12 teams, 3 independents and 9 owned by a billionaire. The indies thrash half of the teams owned by the mogul who only invests in their best three teams. Yet at the end of the season the group of 9 pool their wins to come joint top of the table and push the indies to the bottom.
Not very sporting, is it?
Peter J doesn’t need to travel to the US to do that (if he was so inclined). He could tour Wales. All we’ve done is swap one highly centralised government in Westminster for another in Cardiff. The current model of devolution and its various developments simply have not delivered. No getting away from it.
If you’re saying the answer is more devolution then I won’t argue. But if you’re saying it’s not delivered because reinstating imperial rule is needed then you need to explain why the most successful economy in human history didn’t also need to run everything from Washington to become the most successful economy in human history. Alternatively you could explain how Germany or Australia should adopt the same despite both being far more successful economies than the UK. Take your pick to make your case.
Easily done using your examples. Both Germany and Australia have strong regional arrangements – lander and states respectively – with a clear division of responsibility between them and the Federal governments. We need the same or similar. Fewer local authorities; but with much more fiscal and other autonomy. Why should devolution stop at Cardiff Bay? Problem is that the Senedd prefers the status quo despite the fact that it obviously doesn’t work.
Then we have an agreement: devomax and stronger local government.
But the Welsh Gov have been devolving powers to the local level. Second home surcharges, visitor levies and 20mph exemptions are three recent examples.
There I must disagree. Welsh government has not devolved powers to a local government. On the whole, they use Councils as outstations for implementing their policies as per your examples (although I concede a degree of local discretion). Devomax and autonomous local government, yes. But not the former without the latter. If the last 26 years has taught us anything, that won’t work.
If local government can choose to keep most local roads at 30mph, not implement any visitor levy and not implement a second home surcharge then they are using devolved powers to not implement these national flagship policies. And this is the whole point of decentralised government – bringing decision-making closer to the people. Powers should sit at a level where they make sense. Just as it’s not for a mandarin in Whitehall to decide if your neighbour can open a 24hr nightclub (they’d say yes for economic reasons because they don’t have to live next to it), at the other… Read more »
The Labour party have themselves to blame for their unpopularity. People had 12 years of austerity under the tories and were hoping for something different after voting Starmer as Prime Minister last year. Instead the first thing they done was to stop the Winter fuel payment and then disability benefit cuts, no help with the cost of ling crisis and high energy hikes. People feel let down so in anger are now turning to Reform. What Plaid need to do before next years elections is show the public that there is an alternative to austerity and no more cuts and… Read more »
In what world was Labour going to start giving out cash when the whole economy is being downsized to fit a future outside Europe. The vote in 2016 killed off the possibility of reversing austerity. It’s what the majority wanted.