Is Reform a British or English Nationalist party? The question that could determine the fate of the Union
Jonathan Edwards
It is very tempting when faced with an imminent election to look at that event in isolation.
Much of Welsh political commentary is rightfully focused on the elections in May; however in reality the die is already cast as far as May is concerned. Current polls indicate that a change of government is coming to Wales and that Plaid Cymru Ministers will soon be occupying offices in Cathays Park.
One of the joys of writing a political column is the chance to speculate, and to join potential future happenings to forecast the future.
With this in mind, will future historians and commentators look at events that are before us today as a piece in the jigsaw that led to the end of the British state?
Some unionist politicians are warning that a vote for Plaid Cymru in May will lead to independence. Looking at the election in isolation, it is clearly an absurd argument. Firstly, Plaid Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has kicked the party’s long-term objective into the long grass.
He isn’t going to make a speech on the steps of the Senedd proclaiming a unilateral declaration of independence.
The manifesto on which the party stands will not contain a commitment to seek the powers to hold a referendum. Even if it did and Plaid secured a majority, I cannot see the current UK Government signing a Welsh version of the Edinburgh Agreement of 2012 which paved the way for the Scottish vote on the big question in 2014.
However, what may be worthy of consideration is the impact of Plaid forming the next government of Wales (and the SNP winning again in Scotland) on political developments in England.
It would seem to me that the Labour Party, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems are clearly British nationalist parties in that they support the continuation of the British state. They also fundamentally promote a political identity with Britishness at its core. However, the big question is whether the same applies to Reform, the party at the moment in the lead in Westminster polls.
Until recently British and English identity was interrelated. The happy coexistence between Britishness and Englishness has been the central power source of the British state.
However, in recent decades all the academic research indicates that English identity has become more politicised and assertive. A certain Nigel Farage has tapped into this phenomenon and used it to deliver Brexit. Research by the London School of Economics estimates that 70% of English identifiers voted Leave.
Furthermore, support for his new project, Reform UK, is very much concentrated amongst strong English identifiers. So while the politics and values of the SNP and Plaid on the one hand and Reform on the other are poles apart, Reform has succeeded in becoming the political choice for those in England who strongly identify as English, much in the same way that Plaid and the SNP do for strong Welsh and Scottish identifiers in their respective countries.
Identities
The big unknown question going forward therefore is does Farage see Reform as a British or English nationalist project in an age where English and British identities are disentangling.
Faced with nationalist governments in Wales and Scotland, Farage will need to make a choice. Does he seek to exploit grievance in England to nurture and develop his electoral base and outflank the traditional Westminster parties? Or does he pursue a strategy of proclaiming himself as the only possible saviour of the Union and drape himself in the Union Jack at the risk of abandoning a major strategic advantage he currently has over the Tories and Labour?
The answer to that question may well determine the fate of the British state if Reform ends up winning a future UK general election.
Fission event
Therefore, while Welsh independence isn’t on the ballot paper in any meaningful way in May, the consequences of a Plaid government could be a fission event in the chain reaction that leads to the destabilisation of the British state.
What we know of the chain reaction process is that fission events trigger further amplified events in both scope and speed. The Welsh political class therefore needs to prepare because what might appear far off and improbable now might be upon us in no time at all.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24
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Is this a trick question? – obviously an English party.
Not a trick question, but could be clearer. They are obviously (to many) but not openly an English nationalist party. That’s not a stable position especially if you have nationalist// nationally inclined governments in Scotland and Wales. Farage might be forced to some clarity and have to go all out English Nationalist or Unionist. He might not though. Slipperiness is his forte. He’s quite likely not even to recognise the problem -and I can’t see any purported Unionism from him being about anything other than majoritarian domination from England however he dresses it up. I expect that’s as clear as… Read more »
Jonathan is a shrewd politician with his finger firmly on the pulse. He may well be right
When Farrige calls his candidate “Welsh Dave” you can see exactly how he regards Welsh culture, at best a curiosity at worst something to be destroyed.
Follow the money. It is a party bought and paid for to crash the UK and hive it off. No English or UK about it, it is an entity to make people rich and control things.
Why is a church warden a conduit from a billionaire to the tune of 200k.
Who paid for farages house.
https://bylinetimes.com/2026/02/03/in-putins-orbit-the-crypto-politics-of-jeffrey-epstein-and-peter-thiel/
Most and more people in Cymru are realising Reform are an English nationalist party. (Now just filled with rejected Tories). Their new ‘Welsh’ leader just shows us what sort of party it really is. His primary home is a house worth millions and nowhere near Cymru in Bath. Farage gave us Brexit – which has seriously hurt our country – we definitely should not give him the keys to the Senedd. It will be the end of us.
Here’s a simple test. A genuine British party would support teaching the original British language in every school on this island. Run that policy proposal past them.
Don’t confuse British (Albion) with British (Britannia). They’re two different things.
Meaning the island, obviously.
For the avoidance of doubt, “Britain” originates from the proto-Old Welsh Pritani meaning land of the painted people.
Antiquarians used “the British language” to mean Welsh until at least the C17. “British” only started to acquire modern connotations when “Great Britain” was chosen to describe the result of the Union of England and Scotland
It depends how you define English nationalism. There is definitely a pro-devolution form of English nationalism that believes that Wales should govern itself so that England can also govern itself. Arguably muscular unionism is not true English nationalism, it’s more like Anglo-British nationalism.
Muscular unionism is about entrenching a convenient conflation between England and Britain that’s needed to prevent England from rediscovering its own regional Heptarchy-era identities that would weaken the ruling elite’s (Henry’s political descendants dominated by Etonians) grip on power. There’s no future where England governs itself as a single entity. There’s only the status quo of “England plus assimilated territories” run from Westminster or a union of London plus the principalities of Mercia, Wessex, Yorkshire, Northumbria etc.
What a tedious and bizzare response. Why would england balkanise immediately into heptocracy era nations upon independence but wales, which arguably existed as a unified seperate nation from england for far less time, not do so? How is england any more regionally polarised than wales? Why would england be uniquely unable to exist? A vast majority of people today in what was mercia, wessex, what is Yorkshire and what was northumbria identify as english or british and their local identities mostly sit happily with a wider national identity, it doesn’t clash in any way; there is no real demand in… Read more »
As someone who has lived outside the UK the worldwide saying is for Britain see England
The question Mr Edwards poses is surely an example of “Schrödinger’s politics”. You don’t have to open a box to find the answer, just open your internet connected I/O device and THE ALGORITHM will be nudging you through direct and/or subliminal messaging to whatever it is that its programming concludes you are personally most receptive to.
As regards the statement “the die is already cast as far as May is concerned”. We’ll find out whether “there are lies, damn lies … and opinion polls” in three months’ time.
Who cares, Wales feels more like a colony, every time there is a new government in Westminster. Doesn’t matter who is in power. Welsh MP’s, from British establishment parties, always put party before Wales.