Is Reform UK losing momentum?

Martin Shipton

Is the tide turning against Reform UK, and if so why?

So far as the politics of Wales is concerned, the YouGov poll the other day that gave Plaid Cymru a 14 point lead over Reform suggests that support for the far right party may have peaked and is now on a downturn.

It’s only one poll, of course, but the trajectory is, though more marked, similar to that of other poll findings.

Across Britain as a whole the situation is less clear, although Reform’s wish to be touching 40% increasingly seems like a pipe dream. Some polls have them as low as 25%, although others still put them above 30%.

My sense is that Reform is losing momentum, and that there are two groups of reasons for that, some domestic and some associated with Trump’s America.

We must not overlook the fact that a sizeable number of people have been captivated by Nigel Farage’s perceived charisma and believe in his essentially racist narrative of the current state of Britain. By seeking to pin the blame for Britain’s ills on migrants – and the vilification extends beyond small boat arrivals alone – Farage and his followers are consciously seeking to divert attention from the huge inequalities that exist in our society, especially those relating to wealth.

I believe increasing numbers of people are seeing through this deceit, and coming to the conclusion that Reform’s extremely wealthy donors aren’t supporting the party out of altruism, but because they want an incoming Farage-led government to serve their narrow interests. That would entail reducing workers’ rights and neutering the ability of regulators to curtail activity that damages health and / or the environment. Keeping such activity in check reduces profit margins and therefore has to be stopped.

Reform-controlled councils

I also believe that concerns over the performance of Reform-controlled councils in England are cutting through. The party won a swathe of local authorities last year on the promise that it would be able to freeze council tax by cutting wasteful expenditure that would supposedly be easy to identify. As was predicted by those with a knowledge of how local government actually works – with the vast majority of its resources committed to spending on essential public services including the mounting cost of children’s services – the promise of big cuts would be impossible to meet. Local authorities have legal obligations to provide their core services and Reform has had to accept that council tax rises are inevitable.

A Labour friend has pointed out that local authorities of all political colours are having to propose council tax rises. But in my view that’s missing the point. The fact is that Reform won control of quite a few councils by making a promise they could not deliver, and they are now being called out for it.

Another factor is that Reform is essentially a rebranded Conservative Party, with dozens of prominent Tories having jumped ship from their own sinking ship out of pure opportunism.

Farage’s appeal has partly been based on the fact that he’s seen as someone from outside the mainstream of politics, with many not realising that he was once a Conservative because so much time has passed since he was. But in addition to his own past affiliation, Farage is surrounded by former Tories who have defected to Reform not out of conviction but because they believe that in the current political landscape they will be in a party that has a much greater chance of getting elected.

Defectors

The case of Robert Jenrick illustrates the absurdity of the defectors’ position in its most blatant form. Here is someone who played a major role in the last Conservative government, taking an active role in migration policy, who previously castigated Nigel Farage in the most trenchant terms conceivable but is now praising him as a latter-day Messiah.

Reform, likewise, has previously castigated Jenrick over his failure in government, but this week welcomed him as a highly prized new asset. As well as the clear inconsistencies in both sides’ positions, there was an element of farce as Jenrick was bounced into announcing his defection prematurely because Kemi Badenoch had been tipped off about his intentions. Her decisive action in kicking out a once and likely future leadership rival earned her some deserved respect.

The sheer number of Tories defecting must surely give pause for thought to some of the most enthusiastic Farage supporters. How can they be expected to take seriously a group of Tory-sounding politicians attacking the previous Tory government to which they previously belonged as if they had no baggage? The amount of baggage is like the hold of an aircraft that is so stuffed with suitcases that it can’t take off.

In Wales there’s some bread-and-butter politics involved too. While Reform, aided and abetted by the Senedd Tories’ embittered former leader Andrew RT Davies, spend their time railing against the Nation of Sanctuary and the planting of trees in Uganda, a sensible Conservative councillor told me the other day that people he canvasses don’t mention such initiatives, which whatever one thinks of them cost only a miniscule proportion of the Welsh Government’s budget. People are instead preoccupied by the continuing cost of living crisis and NHS shortcomings.

Momentum

All of these elements are playing a part, I believe, in halting Reform’s momentum. But the turmoil created by Donald Trump’s reckless behaviour and threats is also causing more people to worry about how Farage would behave as Prime Minister. Many of us are concerned about the failure of Keir Starmer and other Labour ministers to denounce Trump’s flagrant abuse of international law in kidnapping the President of Venezuela.

He has, it’s true, joined other European leaders in opposing Trump’s threat to take over Greenland. Imagine how Farage would react if he were Prime Minister. He is close to Trump and not averse to playing the sycophant. One could easily envisage his joining the deranged president in a reckless foreign adventure. Trump is doing his best to wreck the world order that came into being after the Second World War, triggering permanent uncertainty that frequently descends into mayhem, causing untold economic damage. Most of us don’t want that.

The cold-blooded murder by ICE agents of Renee Good in Minneapolis also gave us a flavour of how any attempt by Farage to replicate mass deportations of migrants could play out. When law enforcement agents behave like the Gestapo, it’s time to call a halt.

The grievance-based politics of Reform is aimed at turning as many people as possible into angry fanatics. For many good reasons, we need to stop it in its tracks – and I sense that more people are waking up to that realisation.