Is Restore the best hope of stopping a Farage premiership?

Jonathan Edwards

This week’s exposé in Nation that newly elected Reform Senedd Members are considering defecting to the far-right challenger party, Restore, less than a month after being elected to serve in our national parliament is a sign of the febrile political times in which we live.

Political defections have a proud history, sometimes motivated by ideological rifts, mostly by shallow opportunism. It takes some chutzpah for a group of individuals elected on a party vote list system to be already plotting forming a new Senedd group with a different party.

Restore didn’t even contest the Senedd election: it will therefore make a complete mockery of the election if they end up with a formal party group a matter of weeks since votes were cast.

The revelations highlight a wider schism that has emerged in the political far right, which as things stand looks the most likely means of depriving Nigel Farage of the UK premiership.

Reform has led the UK polls since May 2025, and the latest polls this month by YouGov and Opinium give them a 5 point and 9 point lead respectively. The polling for over a year has been remarkably consistent and even a £5m dodgy personal donation to Mr Farage has not moved the dial.

On the surface it looks like a thumping victory is within Reform’s hands. However, not all is well within the theatre of far right politics in the UK as the extraordinary Senedd story highlights.

What started off as a personality bust up between Farage and Rupert Lowe looks like being hyper-consequential to the politics of the remainder of this Westminster cycle.

To put matters into context, Restore was only registered as a political party in February 2026. In less than five months it has already expanded rapidly from its Great Yarmouth bridgehead.

Its vote share in the Makerfield by-election is likely to determine whether Andy Burnham wins the seat for Labour and finds himself moving into 10 Downing St soon after.

Last week’s Survation poll of Makerfield suggests that Green and Liberal Democrat support has consolidated behind Mr Burnham, putting him on 49 points. The far-right vote, however, is split between Reform on 39% and Restore on 8%. Mr Lowe knows that simply standing in the election can harm his former comrade terminally.

Looking at the next general election, Labour strategists can begin to see a roadmap that could lead to victory. I would argue at this point that Labour in a UK-wide election needs to think in the manner that it is leading a progressive bloc of parties and needs to consider ways of getting the Greens, Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid on side.

Concessions to those parties on their core interests cemented by electoral reform would provide the basis for a radical programme of government. This needs to be explored in another article, but success for Labour at a UK level means being less tribal.

Momentum

Returning to the matter at hand, and while I admit I am not an expert in the politics of the far right, if I was Mr Farage, I would be a very worried man.

The Telegraph this week reports that 20% of Reform voters would now support Restore. Momentum is also growing for Mr Lowe. Supported openly by Elon Musk, he has built over 2.6 million followers on social media channels driven largely by content on X.

The party has already established branches in 550 parliamentary constituencies and is actively mobilising, including here in Carmarthenshire.

Some commentators argue that Mr Lowe supported by Mr Musk is trying to influence Reform and Mr Farage in terms of the platform they will fight going into the general election before reuniting. Farage is no fool: he knows that to cement his lead he can’t just energise his base – he needs to detoxify Reform also. The existence of Restore makes that more difficult, pushing Mr Farage into more extreme positions as shown by his response to the tragic death of Henry Nowak.

Building bridges

I might be wrong, but I don’t think Rupert Lowe is interested in building bridges. In an interview with Politico this week he is quoted as saying: “I don’t work with people who try and send me to prison for nothing. Would you?”

With an estimated fortune of £30m and with the support of the world’s richest person who controls one of the most powerful social media platforms on the planet, Mr Lowe is in the political headspace to throw the dice.

The irony of Mr Farage being faraged from the right will be a matter of glee for his political opponents. Being open to attack from all fronts is never a good place to be politically.

The Makerfield by-election next week therefore may not only determine whether Mr Burnham becomes the next Prime Minister but also break the spokes of the Reform cartwheel.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-24