Is the FM’s coalition answer a blooper or a cunning Plan?
Jonathan Edwards
Way back in the lead-up to the 2007 National Assembly election when I was embedded in the Plaid Cymru National Campaigns Unit, much of our thinking was dominated by how we could undermine the all-powerful Labour narrative of the time that Welsh elections were a straight choice between Labour and the Conservatives.
Labour’s message to the Welsh public was simple and effective. A vote for anyone else apart from them was essentially an enabling vote for the Tories. For a challenger from the left of the spectrum like Plaid Cymru, it has always been a difficult narrative to undermine.
The big question running into next year’s Senedd election, as has been the case in every single election in the devolution era, has been whether Labour would win enough National Assembly/Senedd seats to govern as a majority. One of our strategic aims going into the 2007 election therefore focused on trying to get Labour to admit in the run-up to the election, considering the polling evidence at the time, that they would have to entertain working with Plaid Cymru post-election.
Our hope was that should we get such an admission it would also legitimise the vibrant offer Plaid had put together for the election based on the ‘7 for 07’ signature policies.
A few weeks before polling day, a senior Labour source duly admitted to the BBC that should the polls prove correct, Labour would have no option but to entertain such an agreement or face the prospect of losing power to a coalition of all the opposition parties.
The response of other Labour figures was blind fury as they knew it legitimised the narrative Plaid Cymru was endeavouring to sell at the election.
Plaid Cymru First Minister
My reason for reminiscing is that last month in an interview with the BBC, First Minister Eluned Morgan refused to rule out not only coming to a deal with Plaid Cymru after the election but also serving under a Plaid Cymru First Minister.
Clearly the former would be a ridiculous position to take considering that since 2007 there has been a formal coalition, a formal cooperation agreement and a continuous unofficial soft understanding.
However, the second proposition – Labour refusing to rule out working under a Plaid First Minister – is an astonishing admission on several levels and indicates the rapid change at the heart of Welsh politics as we head towards the next Senedd election in a matter of months.
Furthermore, it is an indication of the fall from grace facing the Labour Party in Wales today. Whereas previously the question was whether Labour would be willing to entertain a junior partner, we are now debating whether Labour would itself be prepared to play a junior role in the next government of Wales.
If I had been advising the First Minister – and admittedly it is too late for a change of tack now, following the interview – the holding line should have been that Labour was not in the business of serving any other party.
Labour dominance
Labour has a century and more of dominance in Wales: it could have legitimately argued that a vote for Plaid, Lib Dems, Greens or assorted Independent candidates was a gift to Reform and the Tories.
Furthermore, the First Minister must surely know that should Labour fall behind Plaid, her position would be untenable as Labour leader. In other words, she isn’t going to be able to negotiate anything unless Labour are the ones reaching out. If Labour come second to Reform with Plaid third, then there may be a window she could hang on to help secure a non-Reform administration, but the knives would be out for her in the long-term.
Perhaps the First Minister’s answer has been guided by the fear that Labour could fall behind Reform and Plaid Cymru at the election and that Labour votes would be needed to stop Reform gaining the keys to the corridors of power – an acknowledgment that Labour will be duty bound to provide some sort of stability in the next Senedd no matter how bruising the result, and that she needs to prepare the wider Labour Party for that eventuality considering the seismic shock it would entail.
If so, her aims are admirable and would gain much sympathy from those on the left of the spectrum petrified at what could potentially happen in the not-too-distant future.
Cunning tactic
However, my curious and cynical mind leads me to ask whether there could possibly be a more cunning tactic at play. By refusing to rule out working under a Plaid Frist Minister, is Eluned Morgan trying to undermine the key Plaid narrative message as we approach the election that they offer change, and hence using Labour’s current unpopularity in the country to inadvertently undermine Plaid Cymru?
It is difficult for Plaid to make the case that they are the change option if that would entail an understanding with Labour in whatever form.
It appears to me that there is an almighty battle between Reform and Plaid Cymru for ownership of the change narrative as we approach the election. If Plaid loses that battle, its currently lofty position in the polls could evaporate. The First Minister might be calculating that in what looks like being a very difficult election to say the least for Labour, the priority if she is to stay as FM is to secure more seats than Plaid Cymru. Even if Reform win, then Labour would be in pole position to lead the government. Is she the political equivalent of the angler fish, luring her prey as an easy meal before consuming the victim whole?
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24
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Lifelong Labour voters will have to hold their noses and make the jump to Plaid Cymru in order to ensure that Wales’ interests are protected. They already know that Labour’s brand is tarnished, and the Tories are a busted flush.
If we want Welsh democracy to endure, Rhun ap Iorwerth will have to be given the means to form a government.
Think that is the intention. The possibility of Plaid working with Labour dulls the edge of Plaids “change” narrative. It also decreases the point in people shifting between Labour and Plaid if the outcome will be some jumbling of the same. Labour’ll start talking about keeping Reform/Farage out as well before claiming voting Plaid will split the anti-Reform vote.
So really; nothing new from Labour here. No solutions. Just managing of the situation.
Plaid will have a fair bit of infighting if it comes third I imagine. So they wont be forming a government from there.
In my opinion, the most likely outcome remains a Plaid/Labour government of some description, so they are both going to have to find a way to sort it out whoever finishes first, second or third. But it will be difficult, particularly if Reform is the largest party. They only have themselves to blame having introduced this daft closed list voting system.
In all this conjecture, Eluned is hamstrung by what Starmer does or doesn’t do in London. She is just the latest down the line (Western) Branch Manager of the Labour Party, for whom Westminster Labour have nothing but contempt. (Witness the dismissive attitude of the current Viceroy for Western Colonies, Jo Stephens.) But more roundly, the discussion – for what it’s worth – is about ‘the survival of (Welsh) Labour’ or ‘Can Eluned keep her job?’ Nothing – repeat, nothing – about any common good for the Cymry and Cymru itself. They’ll have had over a century seemingly trying to… Read more »
It’s nonsense to react with fury in the face of political reality. Labour would clearly entertain the prospect of another coalition with Plaid Cymru their policies have a lot of overlap. It’s a bit weird for Plaid to challenge to the contrary as well. Ultimately it will depend on how the votes fall, but I see a strong likelihood of a Plaid Cymru led coalition in the next Senedd, most likely with Labour but it’s possible the Lib Dems might do better than some of us are thinking. At the moment, I think it’s unlikely that Plaid will win government… Read more »
This thought provoking article by Jonathan Edwards brought me a wry smile. I well remember that when Labour lost control of Swansea Council from 2004 to 2012 I was part of an Independent / Liberal coalition that ran the Council for eight difficult years with a very slender majority. We faced an active Opposition Group who worked very closely together. That group consisted of Plaid Cymru (led by Darren Price) working closely with Conservatives (led by Rene Kinzett) and Labour (led by David Phillips). After 2012 Labour came back very strong in Swansea and Plaid Cymru lost every Swansea seat… Read more »
‘horizon’ is an interesting way to put it…
Yes. I used ‘horizon’ as it’s past spent history. For the curious, just put his name into a GOOGLE search.
Problem is no independent has a realistic chance of being elected under the closed list system. It’s all designed for the benefit of political parties and party hacks.
DJ Eluned, Drakeford, Miles and co do not deserve another term. We’ve raced down the PISA education tables, the economy is horrendous, the NHS is bottom of the class etc. They should all resign and let PC go it alone. If the DJ, Miles etc are still in any sort of power by the end of next year then it would be the most shameful moment in WG history.
I sympathise; but the reality is that no one is going to win a majority. Plaid has already ruled out working with Reform and the Tories. It is highly unlikely that there will be enough Liberals or Greens to make the arithmetic work, so by a process of elimination Ap Iorwerth is left with the clapped out rump of Welsh Labour as a coalition or at least someone to support his budget and major legislation. It will be his biggest problem.
Keep up. Drakeford isn’t standing. He’s an excellent politician and will be sorely missed. A breath of fresh air during the COVID crisis compared to the outrageous behaviour of the Tories filling their funders pockets with tax payers money. We’re still paying the price.
Plaid should rule out coalitions. If they are the largest party without an overall majority, they should form a minority administration — and then seek the votes in the Senedd to institute their programme of change without fear or favour. This is exactly what the SNP did (very successfully) before winning an overall majority.
I agree – if that turns out to be the situation. Would Labour really want to vote with Reform and de-stabilise the government or even vote with Tories and Reform to stop Rhun ap Iorwerth becoming FM?
I think the most likely outcome is Reform UK getting the most votes and most seats but Plaid forming a Government in a coalition with Labour with Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister.
Your opinion seems curiously unpopular, but as things stand right now that seems to me too a quite plausible outcome after the elections next May.
But there are still eight months to go – enough time for the situation to change.
If voters want to punish UK Labour by making an example out of Welsh Labour next Senedd election will be harming themselves in the process of they put their trust on a Tory called Nigel Farage. Do you seriously think he and Reform cares about you or Wales. No. Wales need to vote Plaid Cymru and elect Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister next May. Nigel Farage should have been at PMQs today in London but he was not. This cretin was awol being in America sucking up to Donald Trump and his MAGA faithful. In reality he, Farage, should… Read more »
Democracy Denied: The Coalition That Wales Didn’t Vote For In a country where the ballot box is meant to speak louder than backroom deals, Wales now finds itself staring down a political betrayal. Reform UK leads the vote Yet Plaid Cymru and Labour—two parties whose combined record has failed to deliver meaningful change—are now whispering of a coalition. Not to honour the public will, but to override it. This isn’t democracy. It’s damage control. For years, Plaid and Labour have danced around each other in Cardiff Bay, trading gestures of cooperation while Wales stagnates. Our NHS buckles. Our schools falter.… Read more »
Looking at Peoples Voice Cymru’s website it appears to be just a mouthpiece of an Little Imperialist England [LIE]movement.
Vote Reform get LIE
People have never chosen their leaders in the UK. That requires a presidential system.
And there’s nothing democratically legitimate about a government that doesn’t have the support of a majority.
It’s not enough just to come first if the majority want someone else.
Just because a political party happens to have the largest vote share does not mean that they are endorsed by a majority of the electorate. Thats the undemocratic nature of First Past the Post. If Plaid and Labour’s combined vote share is higher than the combined vote share of Reform UK and the Conservatives then they would have more of a democratic mandate to form a government. With the exception of independence Plaid and Labour voters probably share a common ground, so if even if Reform were to become the largest party but fail to win a majority they would… Read more »
Just because a party has the highest number of votes doesn’t mean that they are endorsed by the majority. Thats the undemocratic nature of first past the post. If the combined vote share of Plaid + Labour is higher than the combined vote share of Reform + Conservatives than Plaid and Labour would have more of a democratic mandate to form a government. Reform voters do not have the right to claim its undemocratic simply because no other party will want to work with them.
sorry duplicate post
Unfortunately, that has been why Wales is in the state it is!!!
Things are as they are because central government shut down manufacturing and industry and “fixed” the resulting unemployment problem with government jobs moved out of London. Devolution hasn’t been able to rebalance things because the economy isn’t devolved yet.
Devolution hasn’t been able to rebalance things because the economy isn’t devolved yet.
Are you real!!! the economy is under the Welsh Government supported by Plaid for a long time!
Wales is part of the UK economy which is controlled by Whitehall and the Bank For England. Not only are all fiscal powers still reserved to London, it’s actually now illegal for the Welsh Government to make Wales more attractive to investors than England under Boris Johnson’s Internal Market Act. Even something as simple and harmless as controlling APD to lure some flights from Heathrow to attract global inward investment is rejected because that might harm London.
I know isn’t going to sound very popular, but Plaid may have made a mistake by ruling out a deal with the Conservatives. The threat of a rainbow coalition in 2007 gave them real leverage over Labour. Without that possibility, Labour can afford to take Plaid’s support for granted.
They were right to rule out a deal with the rabble that survived Johnson’s 2019 purge of the moderates. But if that lot all jump ship to Reform, as it looks like they might, and are replaced by honourable and decent centre-right small-c conservatives then that must surely change things.