Is there a future for the UK?

Mick Antoniw

The UK is slowly but assuredly fragmenting and its democratic structures are slowly disintegrating. The rise of nationalisms in all four countries is proof of that.

Andy Burnham has identified the need for change but it is not yet clear whether this aspiration can become a reality.

It is a challenge for both Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru to break out of the constitutional straitjacket they have created for themselves; one a centralist sovereignty control mantra and the other a romanticised national independence vision, both outdated and both running contrary and with disregard to the evidence of the numerous commissions and think tanks over the past two decades.

Westminster cannot continue ostrich-like with its head in the sands of constitutional denial. Knee-jerk responses from politicians that these issues are unimportant and have no bearing on the challenges facing the public are increasingly facile. Simplistic assertions of an ill-defined independence are a political cul-de-sac.

The way power and wealth are exercised and distributed across the UK go to the heart of our civic politics. Not overtly, but you can look at almost any social problem or civic controversy and the dysfunction of an archaic and outdated concentric Westminster structure becomes obvious.

Put simply it no longer works!

Breaking out of this constitutional political straitjacket is a challenge for all political parties but in Wales it has direct resonance with the political strategies and future direction of both Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru.

Welsh Labour has had a historic bipolar relationship with devolution. During Starmer’s leadership the party became increasingly authoritarian and London-centric, with power over policy over-centralised; sometimes with a contempt and even hostility to devolution.

Disregard for long-established Welsh Labour party and Welsh Government policy became ingrained.

Instead, the counter strategy became increasingly focused on a futile attempt to create a “British” flag-waving soft unionism alternative to Reform and Conservatism.

The change of direction many in the Senedd hoped for when Labour became the UK government failed to materialise. However, with the new leadership of Andy Burnham there are now genuine opportunities for a policy reboot.

It should start with a government review of the overwhelming plethora of evidence of the need for change and reform. Moving away from the previous approach which had more to do with control rather than progressive change is essential if unity and hegemony are to be achieved.

Welsh Labour in the Senedd is currently lacking any clear ideological and strategic direction. This may come but it is not there yet.

Oppositionism

A strategy of oppositionism cannot in the long-term succeed in winning political support from the many former Labour supporters who abandoned the party in May. Creating a radical Welsh Labour centre-left identity and vision is vital.

Plaid Cymru faces similar challenges. Overt populist pre-election promises have become something of a millstone. Promising to support the striking health visitors in opposition and then abandoning them in government is a missed opportunity. People do not forget these betrayals.

Lack of governmental experience may have contributed to a failure to recognise, as Welsh Labour Governments always had to, that the starting point must be to build a partnership or co-operative arrangement to achieve a majority vote for the implementation of policy reform and budgets. This is an essential part of the political process; but it is early days.

The recent tripartite conference of Plaid Cymru, Sinn Féin and the SNP only emphasises the urgent need for UK Government to address the demographic and political changes taking place across the four nations of the UK.

Plaid, however, made a major tactical mistake, becoming drawn into the political agenda of Sinn Féin and the SNP announcing the end of Westminster. Wales is different. Independence resonates with less than one-third of the population and politically few regard it as a priority.

Nationalistic romanticism

The announcement that Westminster politics is dead is not only premature, it is a meaningless posture.

Whatever happens Westminster exists and will survive. How it survives is the challenge. Shrouding oneself in nationalistic romanticism is self-defeating.

Wales has changed. Welsh Labour threw away its dominance when it became overwhelmed by Westminsterism and lost the hearts and minds of many of its supporters. Plaid Cymru now faces similar challenges. They do not want an independence referendum which they know they will lose yet it is the political umbrella which underpins their diverse unity.

Labour lost its unity when it abandoned its own Welshness and radical political diversity. That may now change to Welsh Labour’s benefit although the early signs are, as yet, uncertain.

Interdependence is a far more meaningful starting point for constitutional reform. Plaid Cymru’s weakness is its inability or reluctance to recognise, as most of the population do, that we are economically, socially and politically interdependent upon one another and that there are political levers that are far better exercised at a UK level than in a devolved structure.

Plaid needs to show that they are radically different but face the same political and constitutional straitjacket faced by Welsh Labour. Constructive engagement over thought-out reform is far more likely to gain traction on a cross-party basis than hyperbolic assertions of independence which only appeal to the faithful.

Renewing

Gordon Brown in his report “Renewing our democracy and rebuilding our economy” highlighted the need for change and how it was vital to renewing and renourishing our political democracy.

But the report has up till now been ignored by Labour and Plaid Cymru; yet it could provide the cornerstone for radical reform. But where are the Welsh politicians prepared to speak up for the report, for Wales and for the UK? Where is the debate in Westminster and in the Senedd?

As a former Counsel General and chair of the Senedd Legislation, Justice and Constitution Committee I have long argued for a Constitutional Convention as a means of bringing all four nations together to create a stable foundation for the future governance of the UK.

Will it ever happen voluntarily, or will it be too late as the UK increasingly fragments politically to the disadvantage of all? What are we afraid of? This is the challenge for the UK that I see becoming increasingly important to the long-term interests and survival of the UK.

Mick Antoniw, former MS, Counsel General and Minister for the Constitution

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