Is there a progressive bloc?

Desmond Clifford

During the Senedd election this year, pollsters told us about the “progressive bloc” and the “conservative bloc” in the Senedd. The theory ran that, during the election campaign, only a few voters moved between the two blocs and that the real competition was within broad groups.

In practice, the theory went, there was a contest between Plaid Cymru, Labour, Lib Dems and Greens within the Progressive Bloc. Within the Right/Conservative Bloc, the choice was Reform or the Conservatives.

The concept held up well as an explanation of developments in politics. Plaid Cymru won hands-down within the Progressive Bloc, stealing Labour votes and becoming the biggest party. Reform did something similar on the other side, taking votes from Conservatives – and some from elsewhere – to become, by a good margin, the official opposition party. The overall Senedd split is roughly 60-40 in favour of the “progressives”.

So far, so clear, but how will this work in the Senedd? There was a vague assumption that the progressives would work and vote together, if not all the time, then at least when it mattered. It was similarly assumed that Reform and the Tories would find common cause on the right wing.

The evidence, so far, is ambiguous. At the Supplementary Budget debate in July, Labour and the Welsh Government failed to strike a deal. This resulted in Labour joining Reform and Conservatives to block the budget revision. Neither Labour nor the Welsh Government came out of the row looking good.

Labour insists they voted on the substance of the issue – the appropriate level of Additional Learning Needs provision – and reject the charge they were “voting with Reform”. Nevertheless, Labour won’t want their voting record to show habitual alignment with Reform and the Conservatives.

How soon lessons are forgotten. As First Minister, Mark Drakeford always aimed to isolate the Conservatives in the Senedd. It was a bad day for him whenever Plaid Cymru and Conservatives voted the same way; he saw it as a failure of political strategy.

Drakeford was skilled at handling relations with Plaid Cymru, and – even trickier – the accompanying backlash within his own ranks. He managed Plaid through respect and generosity of spirit. He managed Labour’s ranks by dismissing rancour and spelling out the realities of minority government.

The Welsh Government may have been reflecting a little on this. Last week First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth ate a little humble pie and recognised, publicly, that lessons need learning and that a different approach is required.

Good. Voters like this sort of thing. Many politicians are reared in the “never explain, never apologise” school of politics. They’re wrong; the public is more forgiving than many politicians imagine. They don’t expect a leader will always be right. Why would they? No one is. More impressive is the leader who makes a mistake, learns from it and does better.

If there is to be a Progressive Bloc in the Senedd it needs to be built on trust and shared ambitions – not least the shared ambition of keeping the right wing out of government.

Plaid should act like a minority government. As part of the upcoming budget process the Welsh Government should put on the table a meaningful sum of money for discussion with the progressive parties. If it’s available, they should develop active relationships with Labour on agreed issues in return for budget support. If the Greens and the lone Lib Dem can be brought into the tent, so much the better.

Labour lost its bridge-builders at the election. Ken Skates needs to take a strategic view and not be bullied by rancorous conservatives in his group. A broad agreement would energise a Senedd Progressive Bloc and create momentum from which all the parties could draw credit over time.

The alternative is the tyranny of small differences and a grim test of wills running on autorepeat – and a Senedd deadlock which can only comfort the right-wing bloc.

Grown-up government

Senedd co-operation between Labour and Plaid represents grown up government for Wales. We’ve had it before. Labour-in-government had a good track record on this. Each of Rhodri Morgan, Carwyn Jones and Mark Drakeford made serious and successful efforts to work with other parties – Plaid Cymru most of all – and they invested political capital in doing so. Generosity is strength in politics, not weakness.

In August Ken Skates gave a long-form interview on the BBC Wales political podcast, “Walescast”. He handled the personal side well. He is friendly and talked thoughtfully about mental health struggles.

His political positioning, though, was confusing. It’s not clear he really understands the difference between decentralisation and devolution. Surprisingly, Ken had virtually nothing to say about devolution, identity and Wales’s future. You’d expect more from a Labour leader hoping to be First Minister one day. On the Supplementary Budget impasse, “Not my fault guv!” was about the size of it.

Labour must accept they’re no longer in government and can’t simply dictate terms. Even when confronted with the reality that what Labour asked for in July – £100m funding for ALN – couldn’t now be spent in any case, even if it was delivered in full, Ken remained implacable.

Flexibility

Credibility needs flexibility, not intransigence. He might learn from Andy Burnham, a master of ambiguity who, at least so far, is skilled at keeping doors open.

Labour-in-government showed relative generosity towards Plaid Cymru. They also exploited a political logic which said Plaid would never apply the ultimate sanction and collapse the Senedd to force an election. In the end, Plaid always recognised the bigger picture that devolved government in Wales needs to work.

Plaid Cymru was right. If Labour were seriously to contemplate collapsing the Senedd and forcing an election (which is what happens eventually if a budget can’t be passed) it might be the last thing they ever do in it.

There’s a lot to sort here. Reform is going through a bad patch after their extraordinary rise, but anyone who thinks it’s all over for the right-wing is getting way ahead of themselves.

If the progressive parties can’t work together, Reform will benefit. Labour and Plaid should conclude a deal on ALN where each party compromises a little and then move on to other pressing issues. Leaving independence aside, they disagree fundamentally on very little, and that’s the real political problem: two parties contesting largely the same ground and so trying to look as different as they can.

In his podcast interview Ken Skates showed little understanding of why Labour was destroyed in May. He has subcontracted the thinking about this to a panel of “experts” who will, apparently, reveal all.

I can hardly wait.

Home truths

It’s strange leadership. Four months after the election, Labour’s leader should be delivering home truths to his party and breathing life into the corpse. Ken isn’t overly blessed with talent in the Senedd but there are people who can help him.

Ken acknowledged the problem of “incrementalism” for incumbent governments, the awkward need to layer onto existing policies when you’d rather start again.

Labour now has that chance and should seize it as a liberation and reset. Retrenching into conservatism linked to their previous performance – the performance which brought about their downfall – would be the very worst path to follow.

Six months ago, a victory for progressive parties in the Senedd was by no means a certainty. It is by no means a certainty next time either.

One day, if it can recover rather than kill itself, Labour can hold power in the Senedd again. If it does, it will share it with Plaid Cymru; that amount of change looks permanent. If Ken Skates doesn’t believe that then he should throw the towel in now. If he does believe it, he shares responsibility for sustaining, not eroding, the powers and integrity of the Senedd and Welsh Government.

Judging the parties and their leaders too harshly at this stage is, perhaps, to under-estimate the scale of May’s political earthquake.

Dead-ends

The new territory is unfamiliar to everyone and small wonder if it takes some trial and error, and a few dead-ends, for leaders, ministers and members to adjust.

Rhun ap Iorwerth’s willingness to acknowledge a mistake and do differently is refreshing and a sign of good judgement. Labour should show similar spirit. It would be strange if the party that won a stunning victory shows humility, while the vanquished party remains preening and arrogant.

This is the Senedd term when the “Progressive Bloc” could become meaningful as a dynamic force pushing Wales forward on agreed issues. If not, it becomes a mirage and of use only to opinion pollsters at election time.

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