Is Wales ungovernable?
Jonathan Edwards
In the lead-up to the Senedd election I wrote a series of articles considering the likely governing options and gave each one a stability rating.
Considering the polls in advance of the election and the statements of the soon-to-be First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth, that he favoured a Plaid minority administration if the party did not achieve a majority, I gave much thought to the problems such an arrangement would face.
I will not rehearse those arguments in detail here, but I concluded that the Welsh Government would be inherently unstable, primarily as it would find itself at the mercy of its opponents to pass Budget and legislative measures.
There were particular dangers in relying on Labour votes alone to win key votes, considering that they would more than likely be more concerned about the existential threat faced by their party in our country as opposed to ensuring that the governance of Wales was functioning.
Even so, I didn’t expect Labour to make such a bold statement as witnessed this week with the big vote on the Supplementary Budget. Following their humiliating result in May, I expected Labour to lick their wounds, introspect and regroup before asserting their influence on the seventh Senedd.
To be clear, the Supplementary Budget vote is not a major occasion – it’s normally something that “goes through on the nod”, with the big manoeuvrings kept for the actual Budget.
In voting down the Supplementary Budget, Labour have placed a line in the sand that they are not going to do anything to help the new Welsh Government and that they are going to take a purely oppositionist role.
So much for the new politics of Welsh devolution: this is pure Westminster tactics and potentially has huge ramifications for Welsh politics going forward – especially considering that the voting system employed for Senedd elections makes it virtually impossible for a majority government to be formed.
Whether or not this is wise from Labour is for others to fight over the narrative. However, it seems obvious to me that the non-politically engaged are more likely to blame the governing party for not being able to implement its programme, as opposed to the opposition, and I suspect this would have been a major factor in the thinking of the Labour Party.
Considering that they must have known they were going to lose I am surprised that the Welsh Government did not pull the vote. What could have been contained to a Cardiff Bay bubble story is now a full-blown national crisis for the government of our country.
Gone are the days, therefore, of a quarter of century in which Plaid Cymru has effectively enabled a Labour-run Welsh Government.
Unless I am very mistaken, we are living in a new political environment in the Senedd. The only solution would be for the Welsh Government to come to some sort of arrangement with Labour, but matters may already be too sour between both sides for such an accommodation, and I detect no appetite from Labour that they want to make life easy for Plaid Cymru in return for a few financial and legislative concessions. In short, Welsh Government ministers should be very worried.
Count Binface
The one ray of light for Plaid might be the troubles facing Reform.
To indicate how quickly politics can change, I wrote only a few weeks ago that Mr Farage had a Teflon-like ability to avoid damage to his dubious financial dealings. Perhaps it was a case of a commentator’s curse, and if so, long may it continue, as Mr Farage now finds himself fighting a head-to-head by-election against Count Binface. If he prevails, he will then probably face immediate suspension from the House of Commons, a recall, and another by-election.
Instead of looking like a Prime Minister in waiting, his credibility is clearly severely damaged.
Can he recover – who knows? – but the odds are shortening that he may leave politics altogether.
This does provide a semblance of hope for the Welsh Government, leaving aside the argument that a semi credible British unionist right wing threat gives Welsh nationalism something to polarise against. If Reform plummet in the polls, Reform MSs who thought they had banked four years of a nice salary and pension contributions beyond the dreams of most working people, might think twice about bringing down the Welsh Government and forcing a snap Senedd poll.
I think we will find, come future big Budget and legislative programme votes, that sufficient Reform MSs might not be on active Senedd duty.
Regardless, what concerns me over the long term is that in deciding to take a purely oppositionist role, the political culture of the Senedd will change going forward.
Intransigent
In future Senedds, Labour might find themselves in pole position facing its rivals acting in a similarly intransigent manner. It is true that Rhun ap Iorwerth ended the Cooperation Agreement on becoming Leader of Plaid during the last Senedd, but even after that, he didn’t go nuclear on votes
that would have meant that the Welsh Government wasn’t able to operate.
If we are now in that territory, the nature of the game has clearly changed. Senedd politics will be in permanent crisis, and it doesn’t take a political genius to work out which political forces will benefit from such an outcome.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr from 2010-2024
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Labour are showing their true colours. They will try to prevent Plaid from governing even it if it is at the expense of the Welsh people. They hope that they can get the Labour gravy train running again in the Senedd, even if this means voting with Reform and the Conservatives. Labour have absolutely no morals. This proves that they are, and always will be, in politics only for themselves
Yesterday Plaid Cymru voted with Reform and Tories to kill badgers.
Of course Wales is not “ungovernable”. Experience all over Europe shows that if anything PR makes it too easy to achieve governability, provided that you settle for bland, centrist politics. Pretty soon we will see the Tweedledum-Tweedledee act restored, once the two parties realise that they have no choice but to work with each other. The numbers in the Senedd preclude any other outcome.
Welsh Labour are truly pathetic. This is why they were ejected from office in May. This is a deliberate and cynical ploy by them. To form an unholy alliance with Wales-hating democracy dinosaurs English Reform and the Conservatives to vote down a budget that would have helped the most vulnerable in society makes my bloody skin crawl.
And this is why they’re headed straight for the history books. They despise Wales just as much as reform.
The bigger picture is not about Labour, Plaid or any other political party – it’s about the future of the Senedd as a functioning Parliament. In my view, there was a degree of inevitability about this post election so it doesn’t mean Wales is ungovernable; but if they (all) can’t get their act together then it will be the credibility of the institution that suffers.
Labour can say goodbye to any kind of comeback now. I doubt even Burnham can save Labour in Wales.
Thankfully.
The scene is already set for a disaster with minority Govts the order of the day with the new system
Plaid need to face up to the fact that all the opposition parties want them to fail miserably .
Every single issue they will have to negotiate
Time consuming and laborious
To the public seeing Plaid members leaving the chamber Others bristling wiith indignation & frustrated ,It’s going to impact negatively.
We are in for a rough ride
Strap in
Both Tories & Labour have the extra votes needed to take any proposal across the majority winning line. Plaid should be offering them both something reasonable that they say they want for their constituents and accepting the least offensive request (though nothing too ridiculous). Try to play them off against each other. If neither play ball then Plaid can rightfully attack them in the media, especially if they failed to engage in discussions or their requests were demonstrably totally unrealistic.
Plaid Cymru and Labour were in discussions.
Labour wanted £100 million investment. This would be over 2 years.
Then the goal post changed to £100 million now.
This is my information.
All the same, talks were taking place.
This is my understanding: Plaid Cymru were prepared to put £40 million towards the ALN budget this year. At the negotiation table it was indicated that Labour were agreeable to £100 million over two years. This position suddenly changed and Labour wanted £100 million this year. What or who influenced that change? I have a good idea. Let’s not forget the £300million+ in year pressure the NHS is under. Something inherited from Labour. Labour were rocked by their defeat and are now acting like petulant children. It appears to me that digging their heels in and not cooperating is the… Read more »
Or to put it another way: Labour are throwing their toys out of the pram.
All representatives should be voting in the interests of their constituents, not to impress their socials or overseas masters. How many Conservative, Reform, Dem and Labour voters would’ve pressed the NO button for an extra £145m to cut waiting lists?
No! Wales is not ungovernable. The Plaid Cymru government should just get on with bringing in the change they promise. Welsh Labour must know that if they continue to be associated with Reform, what little rump they have left will disappear. Plaid should not let these tacticts divert them. Front up, get on with their program of improvements and let the opposition worry about tacticts.
Yesterday, Plaid Cymru voted for Reform’s motion to kill badgers.
It’s a perfect storm. An utterly bonkers budget (free childcare for those who could afford it and those who aren’t working and therefore don’t need it) and a ruling party that gained just over 20% of the potential vote and just over 40% of the vote from those who could be bothered to put an X in a box. This is it for the next 4 or 5 years. Paralysis while we continue our slide down all the league tables you could name. Nothing will change and nothing will be achieved. They are already scrambling around for things to do,… Read more »
Ha! Loved the last line (my comments on similar lines didn’t go down well with readers). But yes, we need a government who gets on with the work of positive change. This means quietly negotiating supplementary budgets and being cooperative when they need to be. But over past 2 years plaid has focused on being an opposition party first and foremost, and not one with creative and well thought out solutions to get us up those league tables in education, health economic development. They’re struggling to get out of that mindset. Plus they have an uncosted manifesto – Eluned has… Read more »
Unionist parties are a real danger to Cymru.
They’re demonstrating this very well.
Does Rhun ap Iorwerth want to lead our nation or just his party?
Rhun became leader in June of 2023. The agreement didn’t come to an end until May 2024.
He absolutely should have ended it on becoming leader. But hey-ho.
Fact is Plaid will have to work with Labour and/or the Tories. However unpalatable that is there is no mathematical alternative. The SNP worked with the Tories in the early years of their government to get budgets through.