Labour’s grip on Wales is slipping – and Jeremy Miles knows it

Stan Senior

If a week is a long time in politics, then 18 months is an eon. It was just that length of time ago that Jeremy Miles lost the Welsh Labour leadership election to Vaughan Gething.

Since March 2024, he helped topple the government of his leadership election opponent, returned to office under Eluned Morgan, and now confirms he will lay down his political weaponry in May 2026.

Alongside Rebecca Evans, his resignation is the most surprising given his leadership ambitions and ministerial credentials.

For Eluned Morgan, his resignation is the latest in a string of senior departures. If she is to return to the Senedd in May, she will have lost her economy, health, social justice and legal secretaries.

It is also another huge loss of experience for a leader already struggling to steady Welsh Labour.

Resignation

Jeremy Miles was clear in his support for Eluned Morgan in his resignation letter, praising her “energy and determination”.

But in a week where the party slumped to record lows in the polls, she needs more than warm words. She needs experience and leadership – qualities Mr Miles commanded in abundance.

The confirmation of his exit underlines the party’s waning electoral fortunes. Polling suggests both the health secretary and the First Minister could lose their seats.

It also likely signals Mr Miles’ acceptance that his chances of becoming First Minister are long gone.

He’ll be the first Welsh Government cabinet member for health to not then eventually take the top job since 2013.

Power

But not so fast, cowboy! Jeremy Miles is still health secretary until May, and with that position comes the power to influence the priority issue for the Welsh electorate.

Whisper it quietly, but there has been some positive movement on Welsh NHS waiting lists since he took the portfolio last September.

If he isn’t going to be there on the frontlines of the election battle, then the ultimate parting gift he can give to Eluned Morgan is hitting the target of eliminating two-year waits and reducing the overall waiting list to 200k.

For the wider party, the resignations of both Miles and Gething should represent the opportunity to unify members and sharpen their messaging.

As Mick Antoniw told BBC Politics Wales, the divisions that became so obvious during that leadership election remain “deep”.

Labour, and Eluned Morgan in particular, don’t want the century of political dominance to end.

But clinging to power while remaining divided and exhausted has risked doing just that.

Perhaps the party should accept its smartest move is to step aside, regroup, refresh, and come back stronger.

Stan Senior is a senior policy analyst working for DeHavilland Cymru.