One million Welsh speakers: A meaningless and unaccountable pipe dream

Stephen Price

A news report from Alun Jones for the BBC last month shared shocking statistics from the Welsh Government’s own Annual Population Survey, January 2025 showing a decline in the number of Welsh speakers – the lowest in eight years.

Analysing the Welsh Government’s statistics, Jones writes: “The percentage of people able to speak Welsh is the lowest recorded in over eight years at 27.7%, government statistics indicate.

“There were around 851,700 Welsh speakers in Wales in the year ending 30 September 2024, according to the annual population survey – around 1.6% lower than the previous year.”

According to the 2021 census, the percentage of Welsh residents aged three or older in Wales saying they can speak Welsh who consider themselves Welsh speakers stands at 17.8% – approximately 538,000.

Concerningly, the census statistics show that the percentage of children and young people aged 3 to 15 years who can speak Welsh has been decreasing in general since the beginning of 2019,

Jones’ analysis also found that “the highest estimated numbers of Welsh speakers are found in Gwynedd (93,600), Carmarthenshire (93,300) and Cardiff (83,300),” while Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil have lowest estimated numbers of Welsh speakers, at 9,500 and 10,600 respectively.

One million Welsh speakers

These depressing statistics come in the early days of the Welsh Government’s much-discussed (and pilloried) target of 1 million Welsh speakers by 2050.

A drive to almost double the number of Welsh speakers to one million by 2050 was unveiled by the then first minister, Carwyn Jones, at Y Fenni’s Eisteddfod in 2016.

Carwyn Jones stressed that the workplace, family, schools and the planning process would be the key areas for action, while Alun Davies, minister for the Welsh language, admitted it was a “deliberately ambitious” target.

And even back then, some eight plus years ago, Plaid Cymru’s Sian Gwenllian called the announcement “another superficial stunt”.

Fast forward to December 2024, and a Senedd Committee report has stated that the Welsh Government will not hit its target of 1 million Welsh speakers by 2050 “without a substantial increase in Welsh speaking teachers”.

The report by the Senedd’s Communication, Culture, Welsh Language, Sport, and International Relations Committee found shortcomings in how local authorities are planning and expanding Welsh language education across the country. The report finds not only a lack of staff to support the necessary growth in Welsh-medium schools but also a lack of Welsh-medium teaching in English-medium education.

Dyfodol i’r Iaith, who campaign to increase the numbers of Welsh speakers, estimate the need for 17,000 teachers to be enrolled on the Sabbatical Scheme if the Welsh Government is to hit the 1 million Welsh speakers target by 2050.

Delyth Jewell MS, Chair of the Culture, Communications, Welsh Language, Sport, and International Relations Committee, said: “Welsh is a language that belongs to all of us in Wales and it should concern us deeply that the number of speakers isn’t increasing. This Committee is supportive of the target of 1 million Welsh speakers by 2050, but that ambition is in serious jeopardy if things continue as they are.

“It’s clear that having enough teachers who can speak Welsh is crucial to addressing this issue and we need the Welsh Government to show real ambition over the next few years. More teachers should be encouraged to learn Welsh and those working in early-years education should also be able to access the same opportunities.

“We should also recognise that the linguistic map of Wales is quite varied and that a one-size fits all approach might not always work. We would like the Welsh Government to explore a training and accreditation system for Welsh-medium teachers so that each child has the best opportunity to learn our language.

“Wales has reached a crucial moment and now is the time to introduce change. We urge the Welsh Government to accept and implement our recommendations before it’s too late.”

The answer

In a BBC news item announcing the target back in 2016, the decline in Welsh speakers in Wales was put down to the (enduring) fact that: “Traditional Welsh-speaking communities have been said to be under threat from young people moving away to find work and new housing developments attracting incomers who do not speak the language.

Post-Covid Wales, with its measures to address second home owners can do nothing to swell the tide of English incomers who are reflecting a shift in populations across Wales – from the Irish Sea to Clawdd Offa, from the grandest houses to the cheapest rentals, HMOs and social houses.

A Sunday Telegraph article last year highlighted a record high in migrants from England moving to other parts of the UK amid cost of living struggles – with Wales seeing the most dramatic increase.

Discussing newly published data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), Economics Reporter, Melissa Lawford, shared that net migration out of England to other nations in the UK ‘soared by 53%’ in the year to June 2023 to hit 31,393.

The levels of internal migration are the highest since comparable data began in 2001-2, excluding the height of the pandemic.

And the answer from Wales seems to be “But if they learn Welsh they’re better than those lazy folk in Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr.”

It’s a strange truth, but we have to tread carefully when we discuss Welsh people as a distinct people, or their right to even be considered Welsh, don’t you know. We can only measure them on their language skills. Very strange that.

At what learning level does someone become one of the good guys? Does attending a night class, or having the DuoLingo app make this population shift acceptable? Are Welsh people who don’t speak Welsh lower down the list in the game of ‘I belong here most’ Top Trumps?

As a second language Welsh speaker, or new speaker, I’ve put my head down and studied – GCSE, A Level, Degree, and quite frankly when I go to speak Welsh, I still crumble, I still resort to Wenglish at best. I’ll top and tail an email with greetings, but I’m fooling no one.

And for every news article the BBC, Nation.Cymru and others write praising Welsh learners at home and abroad, we (and I include myself in this) are doing nothing, or less than nothing if we go by the statistics, to make any real impact on the use of Welsh in Wales.

The one and only way we will achieve 1 million speakers is by ensuring all young Welsh people leave school fluent in the language of their country.

Why is this even something up for debate?

Every day we perpetuate the work, the treachery, of the Blue Books, cementing Wales’ children’s linguistic future in a language of the oppressor, when the innovation exists to work towards making every school in Wales bilingual and, eventually, Welsh medium.

Supplementing this is making Wales’ Welsh speaking heartlands economically viable and vibrant, but this is perhaps something that can only be done from the ground up.

If young people want to move to Cardiff, London, Berlin, they simply will. What will keep them in their communities is life, energy and money. We could increase teachers’ pay for a start.

Give everyone here a living wage too, while we’re at it.

Heads won’t roll

If one thing defines the modern era to me it’s accountability, or the lack thereof, and the target of 1 million Welsh speakers is a prime example. And don’t get me started on ‘strategies’.

If we don’t get 1 million speakers in 2050, however, it’ll be much the same as any other un-met target of the modern era.

“Ah we tried. We reached for the stars but ended up further back then before…

“But if we add up all the people who downloaded DuoLingo across the world or bought a Welsh dictionary or tried out ‘dw i’n hoffi coffi’ on a busy native Welsh speaker then we’ve got a million.”

It’s not the job of retirees, white saviours and hobbyists with a love of quirky, Tolkien Welsh who would have learned Klingon before 2020 to ‘save the Welsh language’ and make Wales a bilingual nation.

What nation is that even? Not mine, anyway.

Ensuring Welsh is spoken as a living, thriving, and non-performative language is the job, the legacy, the birthright even, of the people of Wales.

Many of the politicians behind the target will be long gone in one form or another come 2050 (and not still on the list, that’s cheating), but those who are still above ground will be able to shrug their shoulders, blame it on the lack of teachers, Reform doing well in 2026, or resort to good old spin and politician-speak.

We have 25 years left, and if tangible efforts aren’t made soon then it’s time to accept defeat.

Labour isn’t fooling anyone with the status quo, the sleight of hand, the photo ops and spin.

The numbers speak for themselves.