Only Plaid Cymru can stop the Reform bandwagon in Wales

Dr Keith Darlington

Opinion polls show that the forthcoming Caerphilly by-election has become a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform. Labour is in a distant third place. If Reform wins, they will have the momentum taking them into a winning position in the Senedd elections in May next year. In this article, I show that supporters of other parties, particularly Labour supporters, should consider lending their votes to Plaid if they want to stop Reform from winning.

Labour on both sides of the M4 is a spent force

Labour’s abysmally low support in this poll should be of no surprise. UK Labour has offered Wales very little to date. Yet it constantly tries to spin good stories through photoshoots of Jo Stevens, Secretary of State for Wales, and the Senedd First Minister, Eluned Morgan, making announcements that amount to little substance. For example, the recent ½-billion growth fund announcement is hardly different from those planned by the previous Tory government, as was their claim about the Port Talbot steelworks settlement. They have also rowed back on their promises to change the Barnett formula and shortchanged Wales on HS2 funding. Their claim that Labour on both sides of the M4 would improve the lives of the Welsh has been a complete fallacy.

Starmer’s Labour is failing badly because he is too frightened to go near the issues that can really make a difference – such as changes to the Brexit agreement – even when the benefits to the country are so clear. For example, other countries use the customs union and are not in the EU. Canada isn’t anywhere near the EU, yet it has a comprehensive trade deal with the EU that eliminates 98% of tariffs between them. However, on October 7th, the EU announced plans to hike tariffs on imported steel—another blow to the embattled Port Talbot and steel industry in Wales. Timidity has become the hallmark of UK Labour at a time when radical change and new thinking are necessary. It’s hard to see how UK Labour’s aspirations for growth can come to anything when improvements to the economy need impetus, but where is it?

Furthermore, UK Labour does not—and never really has—wanted to extend powers to Wales. They refuse to devolve the Crown estates to Wales – contrary to the wishes of Welsh Labour and all councils in Wales. Neither will they implement judicial reforms, as many experts believe would help Wales. Aside from establishing the Welsh Assembly in 1998, they have resisted all attempts to give more powers to the Welsh government. But now is the time when new ideas for devolving powers are needed more than ever, so that the Senedd has the tools that can help it to solve these problems facing Wales.

Welsh Labour has been in power for over 25 years. Leaders like Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones were popular figures who tried to put Wales on the map and encourage inward investment. But recent incumbents, like their UK counterparts, lack purpose and clarity and are hamstrung by their inability to criticise Starmer’s poor offer and call for a fairer deal for Wales. Opinion polls show that Labour’s days of power in the Senedd are numbered. Wales would have a stronger voice with a Plaid Cymru Senedd government ready to stand up for Wales rather than be muzzled by their UK Labour masters.

The Reform Party has shown no interest in Wales beyond using it as a springboard to success in future UK general elections. Their only MP in the Senedd, a Tory convert, has spoken in favour of abolishing it and is the only Senedd member not to serve on any other Senedd committee. Meanwhile, Farage’s ideas for Wales amount to no more than reviving blast furnaces and reopening coal mines – in violation of net-zero carbon commitments.

Tactical voting choices

An opinion poll, conducted by Survation, albeit on a small telephone poll sample, gives Reform a lead over Plaid Cymru of just 4 points. Reform is on 42%, Plaid on 38%, and Labour trailing in third place with 12%. The Tory vote has collapsed to 4% and the Greens and Liberal Democrats are polling about 4% between them. If this poll is a fair representation of voter intentions, then it means that if a few percentage of voters shift their vote to Plaid, they can win instead of Reform. Labour supporters should realise that they cannot win and, therefore, consider lending their vote to Plaid if they to prevent Reform from winning Caerphilly.

A win for Reform in Caerphilly is likely to give them momentum going into the Welsh Senedd elections in May 2026. It could have a crucial impact, according to a research article written in August 2023 by Mathew Barnfield (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379423000781). He shows that voters rely on opinion polls to help them predict who is going to win elections. When the polls indicate that a party’s support has increased, voters’ expectations for that party’s performance will be higher than they would be without such evidence because the party appears to have momentum. The by-election in Caerphilly on Thursday, 23rd October, could turn out to be one of the most significant ever in Wales or the UK, for that matter.