Plaid Cymru’s strategic dilemma
Jonathan Edwards
Last week’s article focussed on the major strategic decision facing the Labour Party in Wales in the lead up to the Senedd election in terms of where to locate itself in relation to the wider Labour Party at UK level.
The full-frontal attack of Jeremy Miles, the Health Minister, on the UK Government’s welfare reform proposals at the weekend indicates that they will not be shy in distancing themselves from their colleagues in Westminster.
The other parties face similarly defining strategic choices, especially on the back of another poll which indicates that matters are going to be very close between Labour, Reform and Plaid Cymru next May.
This week’s Survation poll indicates the difference between the three parties is only 3% (Labour 27%, Reform 24% and Plaid Cymru 24%). While it is not easy to decipher the result in terms of actual seat numbers, we are talking about perhaps a handful of seats between the three and no one having anywhere near enough seats to govern by themselves.
First Minister
As this column has emphasised over the last year, the political situation gives Rhun ap Iorwerth a realistic shot of sitting in the First Minister’s chair in 13 months’ time.
The stakes are enormous for the party: they will never have a better opportunity of winning an election. The question the party will have to face in the lead up to the election is how will it configure the next government; in other words who are they going to work with?
There is nothing new in this dilemma for the party; it was the same question the party faced following the 2007 National Assembly election and every subsequent election.
Is it Plaid Cymru’s strategic aim to replace the Labour Party in Wales as the party of government or is it to act as a bulwark against the advances of the British unionist right?
If the aim is to replace Labour, then based on the likely Senedd results the party will have to work with Reform as the Tories are unlikely to get enough seats to get to a combined magic number of 49.
Plaid have form here of course: they would have been quite happy to have received the support of UKIP and the Tories following the 2016 election to elevate Leanne Wood to the fifth floor of Ty Hywel.
This would also be a strategic evolution of the tactical decision by Rhun ap Iorwerth, which has arguably worked so far, to distance his party from Labour by ending the Cooperation Agreement and the full-frontal attacks we are witnessing against the Welsh Government from the Plaid Senedd Group.
British Nationalists
The alternative strategic path is to recognise that at this point in the political history of our nation there will soon be a very strong contingent of British nationalists who are openly hostile to Welsh political autonomy elected to the Senedd. Therefore, the overriding imperative is to protect and preserve our political institutions from what could be a very dangerous period for the devolution project.
In my time I always thought the party strategically had to keep both options open, mainly as if maximum concessions were to be gained from Labour, they had to believe Plaid would be willing to remove them from power. Once an alternative government was off the table, Labour could rest at ease.
However, a deal with the Conservatives is one thing; Reform is a completely different prospect. I would imagine that many voters of a progressive persuasion would find it impossible to vote for Plaid Cymru if there was any danger that they would allow Farragists a direct influence on Welsh Government policy.
Similarly, if Plaid aren’t serious about removing Labour from power, it risks losing a huge swathe of current supporters yearning for change in Cardiff Bay. It is for this reason that the party will try and fudge the debate over the next year, but I fear for them that this will be difficult considering continuous polls which indicate we are heading for stalemate in May 2026.
Coordination
If there is coordination between Plaid Cymru policy and political strategy we will have a good idea, while recognising that the two don’t always work in unison in modern politics. If the party offers “continuity Labour” in its policy programme, that lends itself to one strategic path. If it is offering a complete change of approach, then the alternative strategic path seems the logical one to follow.
Eluned Morgan could play a shrewd card by saying her party will not serve under a Plaid First Minister. I might be way off the mark here, but I cannot see how Labour would agree to be a junior coalition party after over a quarter of a century as top dogs, so such a statement wouldn’t be surprising. What would Rhun ap Iorwerth do in response would then be the big question.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24
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Plaid’s strategic plan is brilliant.
Plaid’s strategy is to blame everyone.
An enjoyable and thoughtful read.
I think a pre-election fudge is far more likely. The usual language around fighting for every vote etc. I simply cannot see Plaid doing any sort of deal with Reform – they would lose all credibility overnight. But nor can I see them “replace” Labour if the polls are broadly correct. They might win a couple more seats; but that doesn’t mean replacing. At present, it looks like a binary choice between a coalition of the Left or Right. The dangers around the likely stalemate are very real though.
Plaid can aim to replace Labour at the 2030 election. It doesn’t, and quite frankly won’t be achieved in 2026.
But Plaid can act as a bulwark against Labour and offer a strong alternative in the Senedd.
Reform won’t have enough seats in Wales to govern on their own next year and Labour will spout the usual, “make a deal with us to keep the other lot out”. In reality, it’s about keeping Labour in power for a little while longer and I sincerely hope Plaid do not fall for it.
Whether they can replace Labour is wholly dependent on whether they go into coalition with them. We’ve got a few more years of Labour rule in Westminster; and as the saying goes “Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.”
So is the likely outcome an even weaker Labour minority government?
I genuinely don’t see how they can even think about joining with reform. I know that a lot of immigrants in Wales support them, but on the whole, the genuine Welsh people seem to absolutely despise them (good to see))
Whilst I would happily support Plaid now, if they ever had any kind of relationship with the fascist liars party, I would not support them for life.
Reform want Wales to continue to be plundered and stolen from as a little county of England, in much the same way as both Tory parties.
You seem to be anti-immigrant and anti-Reform, which seems a little contradictory.
You might also wish to consider the fact that this article omitted another statistic from the Survation poll: Farage secured a 33% approval rating – significantly higher than ap Iorwerth, Morgan, Millar or Dodds (or the Westminster party leaders). Whatever your definition of immigrant vs ‘genuine Welsh’, I think you would have to concede that a lot of ‘genuine Welsh’ support him too.
https://www.survation.com/senedd-polling-points-to-a-three-way-split/ (the leader approval ratings are hidden in the data tables linked at the bottom of the page).
I use the word immigrant in the non offensive manner, as in moving from one country to another.
Reform use it to promote fascism, hatred and incite riots and destruction.
I’m really not “anti immigrant”. I am indeed anti reform as I’m afraid I believe that the allies had a very efficient way of dealing with fascists on the beaches of Normandy.
Regardless of the numerous surveys, I’m afraid I will always treat reform, fascists and their supporters in the same realm as child abusers and rapists.
If you support any kind of fascism, I’m afraid you’re not “genuine Welsh”.
They’re booming in the valleys amongst Welsh people, don’t know where you get the idea that it’s all English retirees pushing the country towards Reform. We have a serious problem where “the migrant crisis” is becoming the default scapegoat, even though most Welsh communities have barely any non-white British incomers in absolute terms. This is something hat has been readily encouraged by Farage and his cronies in South Wales for a decade at this point. Wales has a addiction to xenophobic excuses, and it is making it hard for people to see the real problems. That’s what we need to… Read more »
Plaid has not addressed its legacy member bullying problem. Good as Rhun is, but until Plaid does, the strategy does not matter.
I see no dilemma. There’s a simple choice to be made next May Senedd election. It’s either vote Plaid Cymru or have more of the same stagnant Welsh Labour rule. See, we can either stand up and fight for our rights as a country with Rhun ap Iorwerth & Paid Cymru or choose parties like the Welsh Conservatives or Reform UK that want to use & abuse Wales, abolish our Senedd Cymru, returning us back to being vessel state of England where we are seen but not heard. Us real Welsh Nationalists want a better future for Wales not a… Read more »
It’s hard to believe that this still needs explaining to people, and a little worrying.
It’s cause & effect. The dumbing the down of Welsh society is our political Achilles heel. Social media mis & disinformation. A national broadcaster that’s not representative, a paper media too. And If 26 years of Welsh Labour Senedd rule that’s resulted in little change and lost opportunities , or 14 years of dictatorial Conservative & 1 year of chaotic UK Labour proxy control from London that’s insulted us a people & country. With that said. If what I’ve said said hasn’t opened our eyes to home truths, sadly we get the country & rule we deserve. Not all’s lost… Read more »
Yes; but the reality is that Plaid (nor anyone else) is going to win outright!
So? Coalition governments result in better governance because it fosters collaboration and compromise, and punishes narrow ideology and self-interest.
Really? Confused Plaid and stagnant Labour (again) or perhaps an assortment of right wing loons? Dim Diolch. Coalitions result in lowest common denominator policies which is not what Wales needs at all.
Ok but what’s your diolch don’t tell me Plaid and Labour again. Same old.
No – increasingly short term deadlock may have a silver lining. The current model of devolution has failed. A little bit of paralysis might bring something better.
If you’re pinning your hopes on an NI style deadlock that results in Westminster taking back control be aware they (Westminster) left Northern Ireland with the worst public services in the UK and on the brink of collapse despite NI having the highest per capita funding.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/apr/07/northern-ireland-public-services-at-risk-of-collapse-report
That’s what happens everywhere else in life so why not politics. Try organising an event with friends someplace that the majority don’t want to go.
I don’t see how Plaid can ally themselves with Reform or Labour. Maybe it’s wishful thinking on Labour’s part that Plaid will bail them out to keep them in power a bit longer but that isn’t going to happen and Plaid would be foolhardy to even consider it. Even if Reform get most seats next year, they won’t be able to form a government. I’m not even sure the Conservatives under Miller would work with them. They can shout about it but without a clear majority, they won’t be able to dismantle Welsh devolution. Likelihood is that Labour will have… Read more »
Whilst there is a case for some additional Senedd members, doing so by 40% is simply folly, this should have been done in small increments. Because of this “shock” combined with all the other societal shocks, learning about DOGE in the US, and not being able to see the doctor, but feeling potholes, not being able to vote for the individual (some like people more than parties) etc etc – Senedd 2026 is likely to attract a huge protest vote.
I think 96 is too many but 86 is fine.
I agree, terrible, and even insensitive timing going into austerity mk ii. I feel it plays into hands of reform and those on the right.
‘Senedd 2026 is likely to attract a huge protest vote.’
Since no Senedd election has yet achieved the participation of 50% of the electorate, ‘huge’ might be a type of progress!
Agitating the non participating c.50% into action is a double edged sword. I’ve preached for years that any useful political party would see that slumbering 50% as a group to be addressed with plans, policies, facts, figures. No one has thus far.
So now we have the alternative ” agitation” that might work for Reform as it did over the Brexit vote. Ironic that wakening the sleepers just when there’s a dodgy electoral system could present Reform with the scope to influence and/or interfere.
You make a rather depressingly credible point.
Is democracy something to be embarrassed about?
I agree with ex Plaid statement – Prosiect Pawb has not been addressed. This misogyny stretches to the WRU and South Wales Fire Service that we know of and can prove. I conclude that Cymru is a misogynistic country. To illustrate further the Plaid mantra – trans women are women and trans men are men is further proof. The Democrats in USA lost partly because of their stance on trans issues. We’ve had several court cases in Britain – and currently in Scotland- to uphold the Equality Act 2010 that includes sex as a protected characteristic not gender and confirms… Read more »
I am surprised that Jonathon, with all his experience of Plaid, can find any connection between Plaid Cymru and strategy. They have bumbled along throughout devolution, without any apparent sense of purpose. Sometimes a party prepared to take a minor role, but mostly a party of protest. Blame Westminster, blame the Welsh government, without giving a clue as to how they would do things differently, better. The last Senedd election was a true indication of their strategy prowess. Welsh Labour was expected to lose considerable ground. They didn’t. Plaid was expected to make significant gains. They didn’t. With the Welsh… Read more »
Have no problem with putting some Tory Mandi Maldwyn in charge of museums as long as Plaid Cymru get to run the important stuff. Any reform wreckers can then have bun fights with Labour leftovers in the corridor.