Plaid Should Go It Alone

Ben Wildsmith

The shifting sands of UK politics feel less stable than ever before. It can feel slightly surreal watching the Conservative Party thrashing around in irrelevance, hoping that we’ll take notice.

This is the political entity that has set the weather on these islands for as long as we’ve been alive, and before that too. Seizures of power by the Liberals and Labour have been notable because, in the main, the Tories have held sway, embodying an Anglo-centric worldview that could be relied upon to come good under our perverse, nebulous constitution.

The periods when it has been out of power have, largely, coincided with adverse enough conditions as to make power an unattractive proposition. The party remained in opposition, however, a sort of default, to which the country would inevitably revert.

Dead parrot

That’s history now. Jake Berry’s defection today to Reform UK is likely the first of several recognisable figures. The Tory Party, astonishing as it seems, is a dead parrot. The question that remains, is what will happen to Labour?

The febrile and atomised nature of politics these days does not lend itself to a consensus position. Labour’s strategy at last year’s election was to squat over the disinterested centre of UK opinion like an inert toad, croaking inoffensively and promising not to jump left. Such a position can work in politics.

Eisenhower’s terms as US President were distinguished by his reluctance to interfere in the workings of a nation that was flourishing.

The UK, though, is far from flourishing. Stalled growth, crumbling services, and a widespread distrust of institutions mean that a hands-off approach to government isn’t an option.

The party’s offer in 2024 was so broad and vague that satisfying its voters has become an impossibility. It’s one thing launching your General Election campaign in Kent and appealing overtly to the Conservative heartlands, quite another when you have to explain your Osbornesque cuts to the welfare state in Tonypandy.

Insincere

In attempting to be neither fish nor fowl, Starmer’s party has looked insincere, unprincipled, divided, and incompetent. With every U-turn, the whiff of despair rises from it.

It’s abundantly clear that Starmer’s team have written off the Senedd election next year. Every ounce of their political ballast is being expended to shore up English votes against the rise of Reform UK.

The PM’s bizarre claim that Plaid Cymru would attempt to govern Wales with the Tories and Reform betrays the total ignorance and lack of interest that he and his team have in the election.

To counter Plaid effectively, Labour would need to pivot leftwards, at least on matters pertaining to Wales alone. That they aren’t doing this speaks of the Welsh branch of the party being abandoned as collateral damage in the wider battle against Nigel Farage.

Given that ‘Welsh Labour’ can’t so much as order a ream of paper without financial clearance from the UK party, you must wonder what resources will be put at its disposal next year. Beyond that, will its campaign engage meaningfully with Plaid at all, or will funds be dependent on pushing the wider message against Reform?

Potential collapse

In circumstances like these, I suggest that Plaid Cymru needs to reassess its position in light of a potential collapse of the Labour vote. Most polls currently have Reform leading, with Plaid in second place and Labour third. They also show that Labour is leaking to Plaid more than it is to Reform, and that Welsh satisfaction with Keir Starmer as PM is historically low.

All of this is nearly a year out from the election, before most candidates have been adopted. When the mass of the electorate wakes up to politics shortly before the election it will be faced with a new reality: that Labour can’t win. The huge, flabby, disinterested vote that Labour has enjoyed for a century will find out that the battle is between Plaid and Reform. Who wants to back a tied-on loser?

In parallel to this, the travails and mishaps of the UK government will continue against an impossible financial position and the uncertainty of world affairs. There is nothing on the horizon that suggests Labour will have any easy wins at all during this parliament. For every populist bone it throws at potential Reform voters in England, it will make the party’s job harder here.

There is a case for Plaid to rule out any form of governing arrangement with Labour, including confidence and supply. The centre of the pitch is being cleared, first of Conservatives, and then the current iteration of Labour. What’s to come will not be a compromise, a consensus, or a fudge, because the electorate refuse that train of thought.

Dysfunction

A battle for the soul of the UK is underway and if Wales is to emerge with a future, then the party claiming it must do so unashamedly and alone. There will be three years of the UK parliament to run after the Senedd election. The dysfunction and calamity that these will likely bring should spook us all.

From reckless militarism to cruel economic choices, Starmer’s government promises the opposite of the ’Red Welsh Way’ that its Senedd supplicants have recently touted.

Plaid Cymru as a party, and Cymru as a nation can distance ourselves from all that next year. We should be grateful and proceed accordingly.

Governing as a minority, Plaid can use the threat of Reform to shame the rump of Labour and any Lib-Dems or Greens to fall into line and vote for their programme. If, instead, the party relies on Labour as an elder sibling, justified complaints about the Senedd being too cosy will attach to it with predictable results. Time to be brave.