Plaid’s calculated Budget gamble

Jonathan Edwards

Along with momentum, relevance is the most important political commodity. Relevance makes the electorate take you seriously and the media, providing a virtuous self-fulfilling cycle.

During the devolution years to date, the annual Welsh Government Budget negotiations have provided opposition parties and sometimes independent sole traders the opportunity to gain relevance by helping the Welsh Government pass their annual financial plans.

Plaid Cymru, when not partnered in government, would normally therefore bite off your right hand to strike a Budget deal to provide some tangible examples of what the party had achieved.

Relevance is not an issue for Plaid Cymru as we approach the end of 2025. In the lead in the polls; basking in the aftermath of a stunning Caerphilly by-election victory; and with Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth hot favourite to be First Minister after May’s Senedd elections, the party is scaling previously unimaginable heights.

Considering that the party’s strategy going into the Senedd election is to portray itself as an alternative to Labour, there are obvious risks in striking a deal to help the party they say is unfit to govern Wales and must be replaced.

The backlash from the Tories and Reform to the Budget deal news was completely foreseeable as they sense a gaping weakness in the narrative Plaid Cymru is attempting to sell to the people of Wales, especially to those who are desperate for a change of direction next May.

Considering that the Rhun ap Iorwerth Leadership project has been based on distancing himself from Labour, there is also a lack of coherence. Why end a formal Partnership Agreement where the party had influence over policy as well as financial allocations if only to prop up Labour via a Budget deal?

The £300m extra secured for frontline services is the ‘win’ the party is trying to spin for its decision to strike a deal. However, I don’t think many Plaid leaflets over the coming months will be referring to the Budget deal as a reason to vote for them next year.

It is very much a stand-alone statement. Plaid will be hoping that Welsh voters will forget the whole affair long before the Christmas festivities are over.

My feeling, therefore, is that the Plaid leadership was not desperate for a Budget deal this year. Why therefore have Plaid decided to strike a deal on this year’s Budget?

Caerphilly

Firstly, the party in this regard is a victim of its own success. Winning Caerphilly meant that last year’s avenue for the Welsh Government of striking a deal with the sole Liberal Democrat, Jane Dodds, was a no goer.

Plaid Cymru politicians are mostly motivated by doing the right thing for the country as they see it. The wider Plaid project is based on devolution working.

Getting the Budget through means that the election will be fought in a degree of stability.

While most opposition parties in more established institutions would revel in seeing the government of the day squirm, a dysfunctional Senedd is not something that would benefit the argument for more powers.

Secondly, I would imagine that Plaid strategists have calculated that chaos following failure to get the Budget through, while damaging Labour, won’t necessarily benefit Plaid Cymru come the election.

The anti-politics of Reform UK Ltd has most to gain from a Senedd in Budget paralysis a mere weeks before the polls open.

Thirdly, the reported extra cash for local government in an election year will be handy to reduce expected council tax increases and stave off reported potential bankruptcies. Plaid and Labour continue to run swathes of councils. It’s a flank they don’t want exposed come May where council tax increases will agitate voters to put it mildly.

Fourthly, the reported extra capital investment for immediate spend after the election could be a handy tool Plaid will be hoping to deploy as part of a first 100-day programme. A new Plaid-led government in May could have attempted to pass an emergency Budget of some sort, but this would be a perilous position with no majority. Better to have the kitty ready to spend on some early wins.

Labour support

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, Mr ap Iorwerth will need Labour support if he is to become First Minister in the next Senedd if the numbers fall as currently expected considering Plaid’s strategic choice to not entertain working with Reform or the Tories. He would have burnt bridges with his decision to end the Partnership Agreement; nodding the Budget through might provide some atonement in the eyes of the Labour Party.

Observing matters from afar, it seems that there is more long-term strategy at play therefore than short term tactics.

Political gambles come in many forms. How the cookie crumbles on the Budget deal in the eyes of Welsh voters who want change in the next Senedd could go a long way to determining the election result next May.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2015-24