Plaid’s first 100 days gamble

Jonathan Edwards

The first 100 days of government when a new administration takes over can often be pivotal for how the new government will be viewed for the remainder of their time in office.

New incumbents, buoyed by a favourable election result, want to hit the ground running to maintain momentum. They also want to take advantage of a period when the political opposition are licking their wounds and are more concerned with inward introspection, especially if a leadership contest is in the air.

In some cases, new administrations find themselves assuming power during a crisis and their formative acts are measures considered vital for addressing the problems at hand.

Famously the Emergency Banking Act introduced by the administration of Franklin D Roosevelt in 1933 stabilised the banking system and averted a collapse during the Great Depression.

Mostly however new administrations want to capitalise on the political capital that electoral victory brings. The first days in office are crucial not only for public perception, but also for how the Civil Service, civil society, the business community and the media react.

To put it bluntly, if new Ministers appear shell shocked at their new responsibilities and lack coherent and concrete plans about their intentions, the whole edifice can fall apart quickly and from there it is a long road back.

For a blueprint of how to put together a well-crafted masterplan, the best example in my living memory rests with Tony Blair’s administration of 1997. On the fourth day of assuming power the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, ceded power over monetary policy to the Bank of England.

The policy had not been included in the campaign manifesto, but was probably the most important tone-setting act of the new administration as it enabled Labour to sustain a narrative of economic competence for a decade and more – the foundation of two further general election victories, until the Great Recession of 2008 exposed that Brown’s light touch regulatory approach to the financial sector had been reckless.

The strategy was crafted by the new Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff, Jonathan Powell, critically independent from the general election campaign. It was novel therefore to see Plaid Cymru at their conference publish what their first actions would be if they form the next government of Wales in advance of the election.

Traditionally the first 100 days strategy is a closely guarded implementation plan aimed to ensure that there is some semblance of structure to the first days in office. Plaid has decided to publish a plan as a part of its communications strategy for the election campaign, presumably to create an impression that they were ready for action.

I am sure the idea sounded great in a Plaid communications team meeting when the plan was hatched. I am sure the thinking was that its launch at the end of the Spring Conference would ensure that media coverage of the event would conclude on the terms set by the party.

The problem, however, was that such a plan was only ever going to work if the document contained meaningful action that ordinary people could relate to and consider as policies that would have an immediate impact on their lives.

Consultations

While many of the initiatives might be worthy aims, most of the pledges refer to launching consultations, commissioning reports, developing strategies and roadmaps, convening summits, beginning plans, examining options and convening task and finish groups. In other words, there are hardly any concrete proposals for immediate action with deliverable outcomes – the complete antithesis of what a first 100-day plan should be about: instantaneous impact.

For those immersed in the Cardiff Bay bubble, a consultation blitz might look like a hive of activity. I am afraid that the vast majority of the people of our county will probably lose interest.

You would think that a national party such as Plaid on the cusp of leading the Welsh Government for the first time would be bouncing with ideas ready for instant implementation.

Shadow Ministers would by this stage be in competition about who would be making the first big announcements of the new government. Instead, the published document leaves the impression that the party lacks any definitive plans, is afraid of its own shadow and will govern by baby steps.

I am sure that the party leadership will retort that they aim to govern based on evidence, consensus and collaboration. However, it isn’t unreasonable to ask if they don’t know what they want to do with the levers of power after all these years in opposition then further procrastination is highly unlikely to yield results.

Furthermore, Plaid Ministers will find themselves running into swathes of vested and institutional interest. The party in government could find itself tied up in knots of its own making.

Fiscal situation

To compound matters, as the recent Institute of Fiscal Studies report found, the next Welsh Government is set to face a challenging fiscal situation to say the least: “In the context of spending pressures in areas such as health, social care and special educational needs provision, it will mean whoever is in government in the next Senedd term will face difficult decisions on tax and spending.

Indeed, without increases in revenues – whether through a boost to Welsh economic growth or increases in tax rates – and/or major improvements to public sector productivity, cuts to some services are highly likely to channel money to other services with growing spending needs. This is important context for any promises made during the election campaign.”

The party conference it seems to me had gone well enough. There was no need to publish the document. It has added nothing and raised more questions about what exactly the party aims to achieve in government. Plaid’s communications operation has been excellent under the leadership of Rhun ap Iorwerth, but has the party leadership neglected the detailed policy work required if the party is to govern effectively? It’s not the fault of the party’s policy staff if the political leadership are prioritising communications over policy substance.

Tax revenues 

Plaid’s manifesto launch in the coming weeks could be the defining moment of the whole campaign. It seems to me the manifesto is going to have to explain how the party’s economic policies will boost Welsh tax revenues to fund any big new spending commitments.

If that document is as insipid as ‘The First 100 Days’ plan, then the party’s election campaign could derail with the finishing line within touching distance.