Plus ça change

Ben Wildsmith

Devolution is always, at best, a negotiation with the potential to become a series of tantrums on both sides if it is handled badly.

The quasi-parental nature of the relationship between the Welsh Government and Westminster feels humiliating to many in Wales, whilst others find a comfort in the perceived security provided by being part of a larger state.

Those dynamics require ongoing balancing as events demand. Nobody said it would be easy.

The stated aims of the new Burnham government, however, have the potential to complicate all of this beyond management.

We are used to Westminster politicians, some of them representing Welsh constituencies, who are ambivalent about, or hostile to, governance from Cardiff. Now, though, we are faced with a UK administration that is gung ho for devolution but which favours a model that conflicts with ours.

This will require a new approach from the Welsh Government, which risks being bypassed if Labour’s new model of regional governance inches westwards.

Politically, this is a nuanced problem for Plaid Cymru. Setting out points of difference with UK governments has been a stock in trade for Senedd politicians since Day One. Policy offers and messaging have all been geared to emphasise the unique priorities that most voters here consistently favour.

That was simple work when the Conservatives were in power.  We were progressive and they weren’t, there was little else to discuss. Keir Starmer’s mis-advertised administration left Labour in the Senedd unable to criticise what transpired to be a regressive programme and that vacuum in dissent did much to secure victory for Plaid.

As Andy Burnham pivots left, however, the old way of doing things isn’t going to work.

Now look, for we on the left, there is much to be alarmed at in Burnham’s early sketches of a programme. Allowing American use of UK bases to prosecute the illegal war against Iran will be a point of principle that some will refuse to overlook.

Likewise, any movement towards drilling in the North Sea would meet implacable resistance across the UK.

These are not Wales-specific issues, however, and the general direction and atmosphere of this government is indisputably aligned with the economic and social instincts of a great many Plaid voters, particularly those who have migrated from Labour.

The argument for Wales, then, needs to shift from matters of principle to those of delivery.

It is no good being the awkward squad amidst a programme of wealth taxes and increased spending on public services. Most people here will welcome that direction, so it is crucial that Plaid do not allow themselves to be cast as obstructive. Instead, Rhun ap Iorweth needs to make a clear case why the implementation of such welcome changes in Wales must happen from Cardiff.

The labyrinthine geographical and social complications of our nation, usually the bane of Welsh governments, are of assistance here.

The First Minister should argue, publicly if necessary, that systemic change in Wales is impossible to implement without specialised experience that has been accrued over the last 28 years of devolution.

In the context of a UK government that aligns broadly with the beliefs of most Welsh voters, the remaining argument of principle becomes far less diffuse than it usually is. Wales is a distinct nation that must be treated as such. North Wales is not a suburb of Manchester or Liverpool; South Wales is not a suburb of Bristol.  That is a non-negotiable fundament of civic life here which has been mandated twice by the Welsh electorate.

Platitudes

All of this, of course, assumes that Burnham’s government behaves as we have been told it will. It could well end up as another centrist catastrophe, mouthing platitudes about change that it is unable or unwilling to deliver. Until there is evidence of that, however, Plaid should ensure that its politics neither obstruct nor can be perceived as obstructing an economic rebalance that would disproportionately benefit people in Wales.

The faction from which Andy Burnham operates in Labour is understandably high on its own supply at the moment. Stephen Kinnock’s appointment as Secretary of State for Wales can be viewed in the context of Kinnock Sr’s position as a grandee of the ‘soft left’.

This perpetually disappointing and self-regarding collection of wetwipe liberals are currently convinced that they have rescued the Labour tradition from ideological oblivion under Starmer and Morgan McSweeney. The party will be over soon enough, however, and the idea that the whole of progressive Britain is going to fold into its plans without objection may well meet its first and most serious challenges in Edinburgh and Cardiff.

Incensed 

The appointment of Kinnock Jr. will have incensed many who doubt his commitment to devolution. Indeed, straight out of the traps, he has expressed doubt over the need for extra powers being devolved to Cardiff. I’m inclined, though, to put this down as an expression of ignorance on Burnham’s part as to the extent of Kinnockmania in our neck of the woods rather than a sinister indicator of intent.

Look at it this way, if you were looking for an enforcer to impose constitutional tyranny over a neighbouring nation, would your go-to guy be Stephen Kinnock?

With that in mind, the First Minister would do well to insist on hammering this out with the organ grinder, as much as an assertion of status as anything else. He holds a powerful hand of cards that includes specialised knowledge of how Welsh governance actually works, a settled mandate from us that we are to be governed from Cardiff, and a proven record against a common adversary in Reform.

The trick here is to sell the Welsh Government as best placed to collaborate on the broad agenda that Burnham has laid out, whilst explaining that this can only be achieved here by marrying it to Welsh self-determination.

Disagreements

If Burnham’s vision of devolution cannot tolerate the granular disagreements inherent to such a relationship it will fail across the board.

There is much that these two governments can agree upon, more, perhaps, than ever before. For that to result in meaningful change, however, such agreements must rest upon unshakable respect for the wishes of the Welsh people.

If that is not readily forthcoming, then the First Minister should not be shy of demanding it.

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