Reflections on the Senedd Election and what comes next 

Beth Winter 

The Senedd election marked a historic turning point in Welsh politics, signalling the collapse of the Labour party’s century-long dominance in Wales with Plaid Cymru emerging as the largest party in the Senedd, and the Green party winning two seats.

It was an immense relief that Reform failed to become the largest party. Yet its rapid rise cannot be ignored. A party once marginal in Wales is now a significant force.

If current trends continue, the possibility of a Reform-led UK government by 2029 can no longer be dismissed.

Wales now stands at a critical juncture. Old loyalties are eroding, trust in institutions is weakening, and people are searching for alternatives.

The question is no longer simply who wins elections, but whether progressive politics can offer a genuine vision equal to the scale of Wales’ challenges.

The underlying structural crisis

After 27 years of devolution, deep-rooted problems remain – increasing inequality, economic insecurity, democratic decay and climate breakdown. Younger generations leaving in search of opportunity. And the exploitation and extraction of our wealth persist. People feel completely disconnected from politics.

This has created a dangerous vacuum and fertile ground for anger, division and hate to grow.

Reform has successfully channelled some of that, but the underlying causes remain unresolved.

Unless progressives address them honestly and boldly, the political instability we are witnessing will only intensify.

Lessons from Voice for our Valleys campaign

A different approach is needed—a politics that is outward facing, rooted in communities rather than institutions, not beholden to party machines or corporate interests, underpinned by socialist values, putting people, planet and peace before profit.

The Voice for Our Valleys campaign in Pontypridd, Cynon, and Merthyr Tydfil embodied this. It began from a simple belief: to turn politics on its head.

Real political power shouldn’t come from the ‘bubbles’ of Westminster or Cardiff Bay but from communities themselves.

Real change begins in streets, schools, workplaces, community centres, and local networks, where collective power is built. It involves citizens becoming activists and political leaders – with the support, knowledge, information and confidence to own the process of change.

The campaign sought to create a politics of belonging, solidarity, and participation that rejected distant, top-down politics in favour of visibility and integrity.

The campaign rivalled that of established parties and helped shift the wider political conversation locally.

The most important lessons came from voters themselves. The disillusionment with politics was palpable with many choosing not to vote at all.

Others were voting Reform not necessarily out of ideology, but out of a desire to disrupt a system they felt had failed them. At the same time many others were voting tactically for parties they felt could stop Reform, rather than because they supported them.

Generally, there was a deep sense of abandonment within these communities that had once been the industrial powerhouse of Wales.

The election process reinforced many of these challenges: a voting system, which voters didn’t understand and which favoured larger establishment parties; oversized constituencies distancing politicians from communities; and a media landscape shaping political messaging and amplifying well-resourced parties.

Debate was reduced to soundbites and simplified narratives, narrowing discussion and entrenching a two-horse contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform.

In this situation, our Voice for our Valleys campaign did exceptionally well thanks to hard work, honest discussions and grassroots politics. A huge thank you to everyone involved!

Looking to the future

A two-pronged strategy is required now. First, progressive forces must cooperate to prevent further gains by Reform in 2027 and 2029. Reform’s growing influence threatens to normalise hostility towards migrants, undermine trust in democratic institutions, and deepen social division through fear-based politics and cultural scapegoating.

The risks posed by rising far-right populism are real and must be stopped.

However, opposition alone is insufficient.

The second priority is building a credible alternative based on social justice, economic democracy, and community empowerment. Across Wales, people are crying out for a politics rooted in everyday concerns. This means ending austerity, redistributing wealth and power, strengthening workers’ rights, investing in public services, averting climate catastrophe, creating and retaining wealth in Wales. Democracy must be rebuilt so that communities have real power in shaping decisions that affect their lives.

The 2026 Senedd election marked the end of political certainties, but also the opening of new opportunities.

To achieve these requires more than short-term electoral thinking or tinkering around the edges. It demands courage, imagination and a shift of power back to communities. Honest debate on key issues such as independence, community wealth building, public and community ownership (including the role of any National Development Agency), implementing the Future Generations Act, and the role of Trade Unions must take centre stage.

Wales’ traditions of solidarity and collective action remain a source of hope. And my message to the Senedd and UK Government is – stop asking how can we sell Wales, and start asking how the people of Wales can own, control and benefit from the changes needed.

With political vision and the political will to act in tandem with grassroots organisations this is achievable.

Beth Winter was the Labour MP for Cynon Valley 2019-24 and stood as an Independent candidate in the Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr constituency in the recent Senedd election.