Reform as the Official Opposition poses a major test for devolution

Jonathan Edwards

Whatever happens between now and the beginning of May, Welsh politics is facing an earthquake moment.

Last week’s YouGov MRP poll further confirmed the increasing polarisation of Welsh politics between left-wing nationalism in the form of Plaid Cymru and right-wing unionism led by Reform.

With a respective combined vote share of 60%, both these parties will dominate the next Senedd.

It’s a huge changing of the guard moment in the political history of our nation.

Based on the poll, the current governing party and the current official opposition, Labour and the Conservatives, have lost a combined vote share of 51% since the last election.

To say it is hugely unusual for both main parties to implode simultaneously is an understatement. It’s a long road back for both parties to get anywhere near being in contention to winning the election, and I don’t suspect many will be betting their mortgages on such an eventuality.

From an observer’s point of view, events are clearly very exciting. Continuous Labour victories had become the norm.

Every democracy needs a change to bring in fresh ideas and personnel. The First Minister, Eluned Morgan, knows that the winds of change are blowing in Wales, hence the election slogan ‘A New Chapter for Wales’. The problem for Labour is that the electorate are likely to conclude that her party is not the vehicle for the nation’s ‘new chapter’.

If Labour can regroup – and I emphasise the ‘if’, so dire is the projected result – a period in opposition will also do it some good. It needs to come to a decisive decision on where it stands on the nationalist – unionist axis once and for all. Third way triangulation-based positioning has run its course.

It is a decision that could have far-ranging consequences for our country considering the Westminster dynamic.

My fellow columnist, Desmond Clifford, expertly asked what a Reform-led Welsh Government would look like over the weekend. As he mentions, it is highly unlikely that Reform will form the next Welsh Government even if it wins the most seats.

However, their influence on our politics will undoubtedly be significant as the new Official Opposition.

As Martin Shipton also noted over the weekend in his column, in a functioning democracy competent opposition is a vital component of good governance. The question that needs probing therefore is what sort of role will Reform play as an Opposition with, based on the last poll, nearly a third of all members?

Disruptive theatrics

The best precedent we can look towards is the actions of the party’s predecessor party, UKIP, in the European Parliament.

In Brussels UKIP MEPs persistently engaged in disruptive theatrics with the aim of deliberately undermining the institution.

As the Official Opposition the party will have the perfect platform to pursue a similar strategy. If they win most seats and are shut out from power, they will then have a moral crusade of a stolen election to turbo boost them.

From an electoral strategic point of view, Reform will quickly focus on the next Westminster election and turning Wales light blue. I would imagine that many of their new Senedd Members will also be looking to use the next few years advancing their ambition to get to the House of Commons and to help form the next UK Government, safe in the knowledge that once elected to London the next in line on the Reform list will take their place in the Senedd.

Thereby once again underlining another major weakness of the new electoral system.

It doesn’t take a genius to work out what sort of antics will best help them. Somehow, I don’t think their priority will be sitting in scrutiny and bill committees doing the dog work required to make the Senedd effective in its core responsibility.

Considering in modern politics that most elected members these days believe that a day’s work equates to writing a social media post, it’s the perfect culture for anti-politics tactics. Facebook, Instagram and Tik Tok will be flooded by the latest stunts mocking the Welsh Government and the Senedd itself.

The next Presiding Officer I fear is going to have a nightmare job.

Furthermore, such tactics are likely to be popular. We are living in the age of rage with a growing disconnect between those in power and the governed.

The next Welsh Government must deliver more than managed decline, or they will play into the hands of Reform and anti-devolution sentiment.

Some I am sure will retort that in the 2016-21 Senedd, the handful of UKIP members pursued similar tactics to little effect. The status of Official Opposition and a third of all members is a different prospect.

Disruption

If the Reform Senedd Group decide that weekly Senedd visits are the political equivalent of a school trip, then the institution will not be able to perform its vital function of scrutinising the executive. If the Senedd fails to operate as a serious parliament, then the people of our country will plausibly turn their anger towards the institution as opposed to those creating the disruption.

I support Senedd expansion; however if Reform refuse to perform their duties as a normal Official Opposition then the extra costs associated with 36 new politicians becomes a very hard sell to the public.

I might be completely wrong and the hordes of Reform Senedd Members who are about to descend on Cardiff Bay are intent on performing their duties diligently in the best traditions of public service and in a constructive manner. I readily admit that I am not always right.

In response to my article on the Tories last week, one senior Plaid Cymru activist showing the political foresight of a blindfolded mole jibed that one Tory was too many. Whatever one thinks of the Tories, apart from a few notable examples, they take their elected duties seriously.

Those who support the existence of Wales as a distinct political identity might soon come to regret a party such as Reform becoming the standard bearer of right-wing unionism in our country.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-24