Reform’s humbling in Caerffili and the online bots
Ethan Jones
Make no mistake, the Caerffili by-election result is an embarrassing defeat for Reform UK. A humbling. Given the coverage in the UK media and activity across social media, in the lead up to Thursday’s vote, you’d be forgiven for believing it was a foregone conclusion that Reform would win.
Indeed, this is what polling showed just days in advance; a stunning Reform victory was imminent and seemingly inevitable.
Llyr Powell, the former political employee of the Russian asset and ex-Reform UK in Wales leader Nathan Gill, looked set to become Caerffili’s representative in the Senedd.
So sure were Reform that Nigel Farage seemed to spend more time in south east Wales than in his Clacton constituency. Zia Yusuf painted a confident picture across the UK media. The vast resources thrown at this by-election by Reform had done it.
The angry online right was already doing a victory lap with their laughing emojis and hollow talking pints. Reform thought they had it in the bag and behaved as such all campaign.
Rejected
Then in Caerffili Leisure Centre during the early hours of Friday morning, reality hit. Plaid Cymru’s Lyndsay Whittle had won. And it wasn’t even close.
On a huge turnout, for a Senedd by-election, the people of Caerffili firmly told Reform that they had been rejected. Farage, who had arrived in Caerffili with his victory speech ready to go for the TV cameras, turned tail and vanished into the night.
Yusuf desperately tried to spin a humiliating humbling into being some sort of moral victory and Llyr Powell looked like he wanted the earth to open up and swallow him whole.
If, like me, you’re a bit of a Welsh politics nerd, you’ll notice that Reform’s online Facebook army is unusually quiet.
For weeks this online mob has polluted any article or prominent post on the topic with their abuse, laughing emojis and blatant political illiteracy of “Plied,” “Welsh speaking Liebour” and “something, Nation of Sanctuary, something something.”
Blatant
It is quite blatant that a substantive number of these accounts, on Facebook and X in particular, are bots. Yes, there are loads of genuine real people that support or are sympathetic to Reform; I’m not denying this.
But the bot element is very active and not very subtle. You’ve all seen them; usually adorned with profile pictures of British bulldogs, Enoch Powell, Winston Churchill or AI generated nonsense adorned with the UK flag.
In the lead up to the Caerffili by-election these bots were everywhere, trying to close down opposing views, abusing Caerffili’s Ukrainian refugee community, spreading misinformation about the Nation of Sanctuary policy and ranting about 20mph speed limits or simply contributing “vote Reform” ad nauseum.
This toxic online environment, particularly on Elon Musk’s racist sewer of an online echo chamber and Meta’s Facebook, is designed to shut down other views and disillusion you into giving up.
But bots can’t vote. Neither can many of Reform’s supporters with a sudden big interest in Welsh politics.
I’m a bit of a saddo, so on one Caerffili by-election news story Wednesday evening I waded through the Facebook comments section and took a tally of pro-Reform commenters locations; not one in Caerffili.
Yes, a fair few purporting to be in various parts of Wales, but over half with their location set in England. Anecdotal and far from scientific, I know, but I found it interesting.
Free speech
I think it is the case that Reform’s online keyboard warriors may be numerous but this isn’t proportionate to their localised on-the-ground support in Wales.
It is very clear, in my opinion, that this bot activity is designed to set the talking points for the real-life supporters to pick up and run with. Is this run directly on Reform’s orders or is it an independently directed operation? I don’t know, I’m just asking questions. Free speech, Nigel.
Heading into next year’s full Senedd Election it is crystal clear what these points will be; Nation of Sanctuary, 20mph, immigration and Plaid=Labour. I fully expect that, as a direct result, this election will be the most divisive and toxic yet.
We owe it to our communities, especially those demographics targeted by Reform’s policies and pronouncements, to stand tall like the people of Caerffili and say it loud and proud that the vast majority of Wales supports compassion, decency and empathy rather than hate.
We must all remember that, whilst Reform does command significant support at the moment, there are much more of us who haven’t been sucked in by Farage’s MAGA-style snake oil, than those that have.
Blame
Simple answers to complex issues and being given an “other” to blame is seductive politics for many, history consistently shows us this. They will win seats, a lot of them.
Reform will have a substantial presence in the next Senedd and I fully expect it to be a bigger clown car operation than the 2016-21 UKIP Senedd Group was.
But we, the voters of Wales, must do our bit to ensure that the other parties significantly outnumber Farage’s lackeys on our new proportional system. It is within our power to lock the far right out of government.
Next year’s election is very different to all those devolved elections that have preceded it. Gone are the days of Labour’s domination. It is now a choice of decency and normality or Farage’s division and toxicity. Wales will see a battle for its very soul next year.
Ignore the bots and trolls. Keep countering with facts and reason with the Reformers in your life, do your bit. We must take heart from the people of Caerffili and not surrender to Farage’s brand of Trumpism.
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Thank you Ethan for an eye opening article. Interestingly, we experienced the same Facebook bots you mention here in Trowbridge and St. Mellons on our facebook group. Looking back in a search of the conversations we had during the campaign, a lot of the comments have been deleted, making it look like I was talking to myself. And most of those vocal during the campaign on FB have become eerily silent now. We were categorically told that the reform councillor lived in Llanrumney during the campaign but somehow he now lives in Roath. Did he always live in Roath? And… Read more »
Amir
Reform lost, continually commenting on Reform will not support the growth of the Welsh economy – one of the key focuses on what politicians should be doing.
Is enough being done to celebrate the successes of the Welsh economy and learning from others?
https://www.gov.wales/well-being-of-future-generations-wales is over ten years old, has it worked / how could be better?
What learning can Cardiff take from Edinburghs economic success?
https://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/news/article/14243/edinburgh-s-economy-outperforms-london-s
I try to keep my comments on topic wherever possible and this article highlighted the unusual use of bots in the run up to the election. I saw a similar activity here in Trowbridge and St. Mellons. I do feel that if the reform councillor’s campaign team had made it clear via their possible use of bots that he may have resided in Roath rather than Llanrumney it may have swayed voters. Roath is much further away and quite disconnected from our area.
Amir – one of Wales biggest issues is lack of academic leadership. I used to be part of Air Canadas staff network supporting the growth of all Quebec based organisations with Magill University.
Economies are driven by networking, not politicians in most countries.
Quebec population 8 million – best organisations: Air Canada, WSP, AtkinsRealis, worlds third largest aerospace airport, Cirque du Soleil, the list goes on and on.
Amir – all global economist airline are on
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1488319&hilit=Birmingham+airport+route+decline
I created that post for Birmingham’s networking group.
Devolving crown estates to Wales would be a huge start and a large boost to the local economy.
The forthcoming Senedd election will undoubtedly be absolutely full of bot driven misinformation many will find it hard to ignore. We must all keep open minds and believe in hope not hate and division.
Well said.
That is one really hateful glare.
Homer might be thinking Doh!
Plaid will be well pleased if Reform retain Powell as their main attack dog in the region
He has left behind a bitter after taste.
Opened up wounds which were never there in the first place .
Whittle is clearly a community champion and this will become more evident in the few months before the election.
A valuable opportunity to win over hearts and minds
An odd sense of the word ‘Defeat’. Reform came from basically nowhere, to earning over a solid third of the vote. The result was such that they did better than Labour’s first place in 2016, obtaining more votes and a larger percentage of the vote and they outscored Plaid Cymru’s previous results. Getting a whopping 12,100 votes with a 36% share is way more than Plaid’s historically 8,000 votes, is a serious achievement. Plaid had to basically beg borrow and steal votes to get it over the line, Reform came from basically nowhere and took a massive chunk of the… Read more »
They looked embarrassed.
Completely disagree they are not some new kid on the block they have been around for years branded with different names spreading the same kind of bile and in last years General Election in Caerphilly they finished less than 400 votes behind Plaid on Thursday it was virtually 4,000 they had a massive machine from England behind them favourable media support and still they lost badly. It’s they that should be very worried by the massive rise in Plaid Cymru support particularly from the young and they aren’t going to be voting Labour in May I can assure you. The… Read more »
Calling second place a victory doesn’t change the fact that Caerphilly rejected Reform. You can’t spin a loss into a win just because it’s louder than last time. Welsh voters saw through the bluster—and chose community over division. Voters rejected Reform’s values, not just their candidate. The result was a rebuke to Farage-style populism, not a near-miss victory.
Plaid’s win wasn’t just numerical it was symbolic of a community choosing dignity, Welsh identity, and inclusive politics over fear-mongering and outsider narratives that was driven not by concerned Caerphilly people but by misinformation bots and outside interference.
To be honest, I’m not and never have been and never will be a Reform voter, I voted Tory once because Brexit (literally the only thing I wanted out of them), Labour before that, Lib Dem before that and I plan to vote Plaid next. I don’t see how a huge surge in support shown for a party that pushed Plaid into panic mode is that much of a ‘Rebuke’. If I were Farage, I’d have been disappointed not to get it over the line, but I for sure as hell would be coming back next time and doing a… Read more »
You’re completely wrong. Plaid won by a margin of 11.4%. That’s a hefty majority.11.4% was also greater than Labour’s vote share.
10% is hardly insurmountable. Convincing would be having 50% of the electorate voting for you.
It was closer to 12%.than 10%. Don’t be guilty of spreading misinformation like Reform continually do, and Plaid came within a couple of percentage points of getting 50% by the way.
There’s a lot of talk about Plaid borrowing votes but what about Reform? Their vote share did not come from new voters, it came from all the previous conservative voters along with around half the voters Labour lost. The percentages show this as the conservatives basically got zero and the percentage lost by Labour was larger than the gain made by Plaid. The British establishment like to paint is as tactical voting for Plaid but that works both ways. The truth is they can’t handle tha fact Reform lost and that people here in Wales think differently to what is… Read more »
Reform didn’t borrow any votes, it took them, over a third of voters were taken in by Farage.
I’m celebrating (small c) that Reform lost, however, I’m looking at the next election for Caerphilly with caution knowing full well that Reform are going to descend on Caerphilly again with even better campaigning. They’ve shown that they have the numbers to win, over a third… they’re not going to give that up easily.
Yes they certainly pulled out all the stops to get 12,100.
Yet difficult to see them garner any more in 2026
Powell’s gloss certainly wore off as the campaign was waged
More a liability than an asset
There will be many who were sucked in by the candy floss who will have time to reflect
Whittle will demonstrate that a community based member is best person for the job
I really hope so.
Reform UK didn’t really come “from basically nowhere”, since much of their vote tally was from people who voted UKIP last time; hence UKIP’s poor showing this time. Powell and Farage were confident of victory, but lost by a considerable margin, and were certainly humbled and embarrassed; Powell gave no speech afterwards, and Farage headed straight home. In terms of their previous expectations, I can see little comfort for Reform UK in this election result.
In preparing for next May, it is encumbent on the other parties to ensure that voters know how to vote, what the issues are and how politics affects their daily lives. Reform can influence where voters remain in the dark and apathy rules.
It’s widely been reported that reform ltd threw “huge resources” at their campaign. I hope those with the expertise and know-how will scrutinise the accounts they have to submit to see whether they’ve broken any electoral law(s).
A really important point, although I get the impression that our current electoral laws are not fit for purpose.
Reform seem to have a professional campaign organisation now, so I expect they’ll submit a expenses return that stands up to scrutiny.
Then again, they did forget they have to pay VAT.
Think you’re right, they won’t have overlooked that particular issue. But the source of their funding must get investigated.
Voters who want fairness in the system should write to thier respective MPs and Senned members to ask them to discuss this issue in Parliament and the Senned. Democracy is at risk.
I really do think it is as serious as that.
The BBC Wales reporter at the count fought her way through the media scrum and was very pleased with herself for getting to Lindsay Whittle first. She then noticed and pointed out live that the rest of the scrum was piled round Llŷr Powell. Lindsay Whittle was diplomatic in response. Later in the studio she said other reporters were reaching over her head to get to the runner up, not the winner. Hopeless. For my part, given his refusal to make the usual speech, I have definitely added Powell to my list of men with elaborate facial hair patterns whom… Read more »
It’s a standard beard though? What elaborate facial hair pattern? Does trimming the edges count as elaborate?
Apparently, in the Swinging Sixties, Mary Quant trimmed her pubes into a heart shape as a treat for her husband. Not making a comparison, just saying.
Probably one of the few occasions Reform has not wanted to be in the limelight. Apart from when Traitor Gill hit the headlines.
The abuse from these that the Welsh Underground Network received on Twitter was extreme, but has also disappeared literally as soon as the election was over.
It went from Neo-Nazis commenting on a post commemorating Aberfan, trying to pick a physical fight with the Welsh Underground Network, to nothing at all.
Can’t wait to see them all again in May 2026!
It’s OK. We’ve got screenshots.
Most people are fully aware that WUN actually walk the walk and do real things in communities, we’ll never see a reform member helping refurb community halls.
They have put some flags up though.
‘Given the coverage in the UK media and activity across social media, in the lead up to Thursday’s vote, you’d be forgiven for believing it was a foregone conclusion that Reform would win.’ Indeed it was. So much so that a Reform UK win was my expectation. But, obviously, I turned out to have been wrong. I should have paid more heed to the editor of the Caerphilly Observer who was interviewed in advance of the election on a TV programme. Just after another pundit had asserted his belief that Reform UK would probably come out on top, the editor… Read more »