Rhun ap Starmer? What does the leader of Plaid Cymru stand for?
Jonathan Edwards
In a matter of months if is highly likely that Rhun ap Iorwerth will either be First Minister of Wales or Deputy First Minister, depending on whether Plaid Cymru manages to secure more seats than Labour at the Senedd election.
Considering that Mr ap Iorwerth’s most notable act since becoming leader of Plaid Cymru was to end the Cooperation Agreement with the Welsh Government, some would argue that it would lack ideological consistency for Plaid to come to any sort of arrangement with Labour after next May.
However, the next Senedd will inevitably, it seems, consist of a strong contingent of Reform UK Ltd Senedd Members, meaning that the current protected fencing duel between Plaid and Labour will cease once the election is over. I do continue to have my doubts, however, about how sustainable it will all be if Labour aren’t the dominant partner. A Labour Party going through deep soul searching having lost its fiefdom is highly unlikely to be particularly stable.
Listening tour
Mr ap Iorwerth this week started a listening tour of Wales. It would appear to me that the grid planners in Plaid have dusted off the wrong strategy paper. Last year should have been the performative ‘listening’ tour, and this year in advance of the election the ‘vision setting’ tour.
Mr ap Iorwerth has many strengths. He pulled Plaid back from imploding when he assumed the leadership. Plaid members should thank their lucky stars that he had made the shift to the Senedd from the BBC, or the party might not have made it to its 100th birthday. When Adam Price was decapitated by his own group and the NEC, there was no one else to take over apart from Mr ap Iorwerth. The party was in free fall. He has stabilised matters and has got them to a position where on a fair wind they could win the election. This is a considerable achievement.
His biggest strength is his communication skills. A confident performer, his skills will be tested to the full over the next few months. Some of his interviews can be sketchy when confronted on detail, but Plaid have no one in the same class as him.
Welsh patriot
He is also a genuine Welsh patriot. Although one of his other first acts as leader was to park the party’s core aspiration of more political power for Wales. On a side note, the only real prospect of constitutional advancement for Wales in the next Senedd is a Labour government propped up by Plaid on the basis of a new Government of Wales Act being the price of servitude.
The notion that Mr ap Iorwerth as First Minister will be able to rock up in 10 Downing Street as First Minister and demand more powers is for the birds, unless Labour consider a shift to triangulating Plaid and the SNP on the national question as mission critical for the next general election.
I would suspect however that Labour by that stage will be in complete panic mode at the prospect of a Reform UK Ltd UK British election victory and could conceivably therefore go in the complete opposite direction and pursue a Westminster first hyperdrive policy.
Returning to Mr ap Iorwerth, if he has a weakness however it is perhaps that he isn’t the most policy driven of politicians. This apolitical approach has inevitably helped him settle matters within Plaid Cymru as his chameleon approach has been unifying for the party.
But as the Don of Welsh political academia, Richard Wyn Jones, writes this month in Barn, the travails of the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, should be a warning to Mr ap Iorwerth. What works in opposition doesn’t necessarily work in government. In defence of Mr Ap Iorwerth, unlike Sir Keir Starmer, he clearly hasn’t been captured by a faction in his party and used as a delivery device.
Furthermore, he hasn’t decided to define himself by purging his party of the left-wing faction. Indeed a sizeable number have won selection battles across the country and will be elected next May. On this point, some of my former comrades accuse me of overblowing the factional splits in Plaid. And it is true matters seem much calmer at present; however, I am not convinced that the Plaid left have now become team playing ap Iorwerthite apolitical converts. Post election events will inform I suspect.
Reform UK
This week’s Guardian interview didn’t really help the public understand why Mr ap Iorwerth wants to be First Minister. The only interesting revelation in the interview came when asked why he was aiming all his guns at Labour while ignoring Reform UK Ltd. Mr ap Iorwerth was of the view they would “fizzle out”. Now obviously I have no idea whether he believes this or not, but considering Reform’s current poll rating and seat projection his position could either be characterised as clueless, complacent or arrogant. I’ll let Nation readers take their pick.
Reform UK Ltd pose the biggest threat to devolved Welsh governance since the 1997 vote. They could be the largest party in the Senedd from May. Right wing populism in whatever guise seems entrenched in Western democratic politics. Plaid Cymru and its leader need to have answers about how they are going to defend Welsh political nationhood from the gathering storm by providing a counter vision that can grasp the imagination of the nation.
The forthcoming Plaid annual gathering at Swansea in early October will be a landmark moment not only for Mr ap Iorwerth but in the history of the nation. Can he use the platform that he will have on that weekend to convince the nation that they should finally place their collective faith in the national party? To succeed he will need to persuade the sceptics and undecided that there is substance that people can buy into.
As Keir Starmer’s fate has proven, after reaching high office is not the time to try and work out what you want to achieve with the power and responsibility of government.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24
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For me it doesn’t matter what his personal views are. What matters to me is whether he’s able to implement the manifesto he campaigns on. Last I checked the ‘First Minister’ is not an electable position by us plebs so it doesn’t matter to me.
What I don’t like is when politicians campaign on a manifesto and then don’t fulfill their promises.
and yes, I feel like Ap Iorwerth, provided he has a suitable majority would carry out many of the promises. Much more so than Labour, Tory or Reform who promise everything to everyone all at once.
At no point since devolution has any single party gained enough support to gain an absolute majority in the Assembly/Senedd, and I’ll be very surprised if that changes next year.
And if that’s the case, the hard reality, if some stable government is to be formed, is that there will simply have to be some deal made to enable that to happen. In such circumstances that’s simply how a parliamentary democracy has to work. Because the dismal alternative is that, otherwise, it can’t and won’t work.
Having had the privilege to meet him a few times, I find him a thoroughly pleasant person, and he is an asset to Welsh politics and life in general. I think he’s also done a far better job than the previous two leaders. In my view, he genuinely seeking the best for his constituents and for the country as a whole. I think the author of this article does highlight one of his challenges, or weaknesses is his background as a journalist, which makes an excellent communicator with a savvy political viewpoint. But I think this background doesn’t lend itself… Read more »
I’m not sure it’s necessary for a front man to know the finer technical detail, as this can lead to micromanagement. The best leaders surely have a instinct for talent and put the right people into the right top jobs and support them to deliver.
That’s true; but any Leader needs a grasp of some detail or they end up saddled with undeliverable promises and lose control of their government. That’s essentially what has happened to Starmer. Ap Iorwerth is a good communicator but doesn’t seem in control of Plaid’s policy promises. And there are lot of unfunded commitments which will come back to bite them.
As an anecdote, I remember being in a meeting about an investment in his constituency. He called the meeting and I represented one company and two others were present. He opened the meeting very nicely and politely, but then barely said anything for the next 1.5 hours. He didn’t lead or interject in any of the conversations. I think he has no clue about the area and hadn’t been briefed. You can get away with that as a lowly MS (which he was at the time), not sure leader of the opposition or FM can behave like that. We basically… Read more »
Did the investment go ahead?
No of course not. Nothing ever happens in north wales!
If PC don’t counter the Deform threat, they will lose and lose big. Deform has a big pull on many communities who see immigration as the source of all their problems. Deform has no concrete policies and spew hate and division. This was a Frump strategy and see where he got to. The only way forward, Allah willing, is through love and optimism. And we have a lot to be optimistic about. And Wales and the Welsh have plenty of love to give. I have seen Rhun in FM question time. He has the making of a strong straight talking… Read more »
Sadly heard many people on the door step say they won’t vote Plaid because of their support for the Nation of Sanctuary. A surprisingly large number of people have been turned by GB news and right-wing social media narrative.
When Wales goes to the polls next year, voters are going to be faced with a poor choice. The short-lived Gething government still tarnishes Labour, and more so now, Morgan’s seeming inability to stand up to Westminster Labour for Wales’ interests. Will Reform be a spent force by next year? That’s difficult to say with any certainty. They have a consistent, albeit one-dimensional, message. They have also correctly recognised the depth of anger still felt over the financial crisis, Austerity, COVID, rising living costs and stagnant wages. On the other hand, their councillors will have had a full year in… Read more »
Deform can gauge the mood of the people and it doesn’t take a genius to see that they are unhappy. But this is a global situation, not just in Wales. Deform haven’t offered any solutions to rectify this global recession because it is not just a Welsh problem. The solution for Wales is for everyone able bodied to be in gainful employment that values them in that job.
Perfectly put, the people of Wales deserve change not more of the same!
Unbelievable, isn’t it? That one individual can be seen as towering above their peers, and yet the group itself struggles to inspire confidence. Expectations can be high for someone with a distinguished background, but when performance wavers, questions arise. It’s remarkable how the spirit of patriotism thrives throughout Wales, independent of party lines, and yet Plaid Cymru fails to capture that energy. The disconnect is evident in online discussions and in their political manoeuvres—such as supporting Labour in the Senedd—which reveal a puzzling misreading of the nation’s pulse. Truly, the situation defies belies reality. The overwhelming sense of anger and… Read more »
If you think Reform are willing and capable of improving anything then you’re ignoring their MO. As the Brexit Party they forced Johnson into walking away from a returns deal with Europe that caused the small boats crisis they’re now trying to capitalise on. They are the political equivalent of a dodgy roofer who tells an elderly person their slipped slate can only be fixed with a new roof.
Interesting read, but I would suggest that if Plaid does gain more seats than any other party, then failing a Reform /Tory coalition or pact, Plaid may go it alone and form a minority government as Salmond / SNP did in 2007.
This did not require a formal coalition OR a deal with any other party. He essentially sought and received support from other parties on an issue by issue basis.
I can’t see no reason why labour would want to be a minor party in coalition. Better to let reform or plaid lead and come untangled when they face the reality of governing. Both reform and plaid can be as positive as they want, but the next senedd term is about delivering 5-10% cuts across all departments at a time public service needs are growing. Good luck with that!
I agree. This is why I keep banging on about Plaid’s inability to resist making unfunded promises. It will come back to bite them big time in the same way that UK Labour’s self imposed fiscal rules have left them in a straight jacket. People will then get very disappointed very quickly with Mr Ap Iowerth. It’s as predictable as tomorrow’s sunrise. As for Welsh Labour, it will be interesting to see whether they support a Plaid led government or take their ball home in a huff. All depends upon how badly they want to keep Reform out I suppose.
Think what Plaid needs is a leader that can muster notoriety.
Just to timid. To willing to play by the rules. The urgency of the party in general doesn’t reflect the urgency people feel in their every day lives.
They’re a bit out of step, just not as out of step as Labour is. That’ll benefit in the election… but there’ll be expectations that Plaid will need to deliver on if its to sell some kind of alliance with Labour to members and voters.