Russian Roulette In Caerphilly

Ben Wildsmith

Thursday’s by-election in Caerphilly is probably the most important poll held in Wales in our lifetimes.

For most of us, voting has been something we do from a sense of civic duty, but without any sense of urgency. In Westminster elections, our constituencies have rarely been marginal enough to register as a deciding factor in the UK-wide result.

At the Senedd level, Labour’s hegemony has meant that no real peril was attached to the result.

The democratic detachment of Wales in general elections, and the rubber-stamping of a one-party state in our devolved democracy has created a political scene that is characterised by complacency. In a nation that includes some of the most deprived areas in Europe, the most vibrant political debate of recent years concerned the marginal lowering of some speed limits.

That is about to change, and we need to adjust our levels of engagement accordingly. Victory in Caerphilly for Reform UK will publicise and legitimise the party’s offering in next May’s elections, opening up the possibility of it becoming the largest group in the Senedd.

If, as is likely, that group were unable to find sufficient cross-party support to govern, the Senedd will be accused of operating contrary to public opinion. Welsh democracy will become the whipping boy of Reform’s claim to be disadvantaged by the political establishment.

In the event of Farage becoming Prime Minister, we should expect dire relations between Westminster and Cardiff Bay, with the repeal of devolution likely in the conversation.

Fanatics

Reform UK fanatics, with their laughing emojis, ‘legitimate concerns about immigration’, and belief that the 2.2% of our population intend to turn Wales into a Muslim state, are unreachable via reasoned debate. For those considering sitting this unpleasant election out, however, there are compelling reasons to vote on Thursday.

Byline News have again reported on the high-level Russian influence on Reform’s leadership that Nation.Cymru first exposed. It is inconceivable that Nathan Gill managed to operate in the way he did without his colleagues in the party being aware. The Reform candidate in Caerphilly, Llyr Powell, has cast himself as having been too insignificant to know – Caerphilly has apparently been assigned the tea boy to represent its interests.

The party has advanced no specific agenda for Wales, relying instead on the impression that it represents a change from the status quo. This is a powerful argument in itself.

Labour’s operation in Wales has been shamefully inadequate in addressing the endemic decline of our communities. The wholescale ownership of ‘Welsh Labour’ by the national party has, in the wake of last year’s general election, reduced it to the apologist mouthpiece of a Westminster government that has operated from the right of recent Tory administrations.

Income tax threshold

Reform’s stand-out offer to voters who feel betrayed by this was the raising of the income tax threshold to 20%. Here, it seemed that Reform had noticed the struggle of working people in a way that other parties didn’t have the will to match.

Last week, however, Richard Tice quietly downgraded that commitment to an ‘aspiration’ that might be looked at should the party win a second term in Westminster. As Reform swells with refugees from the Conservatives, it looks less like a vehicle for reform than a rebrand for the asset-stripping Thatcherism that crippled the Welsh economy in the first place.

If Powell wins on Thursday, there will be smiles in Dubai, where Tice spends much of his time with his partner, Isabell Oakshott, and, it seems, in Moscow. There will be approving nods in the boardrooms of US health corporations, and those advancing the enthusiastic extraction of fossil fuels.

There will be smiles in Wales too. In communities like Abertridwr, that the political establishment only discovered in the last few days, some will feel the thrill of voting away decades of inaction in favour of something… anything new.

Those smiles will fade, however, when the reality of Reform’s economics becomes clear. The Senedd stands between Wales and the corporate takeover of public services that Reform will allow if elected in Westminster. If you are registered to vote on Thursday, for once, your participation will have genuine consequences.

Moral obligation

Whether Plaid or Reform UK win this by-election, Labour politicians have a moral obligation to respond to the result in the dying months of their administration.

Many are leaving the Senedd voluntarily, and many more will be ejected by the electorate in May. Leaving with dignity and honour would entail demanding a fairer settlement for Wales, rejecting austerity, and reclaiming the Welsh Labour party for the values upon which it was founded.

None of that is likely to save a party that has been ruined by complacency, cronyism, and slavish acquiescence to the hollowed-out shell of its London establishment. It would, however, be a service to democracy in Wales, and individual politicians should reflect upon how they wish their careers to end.

Caerphilly holds the megaphone for our nation on Thursday and, for once, the world is listening.  If it is business as usual in the Senedd after the dust settles, it may never listen again.