Schrödinger’s Labour: In power, but out of steam in Wales

James Downs, Mental Health Campaigner

First Minister Eluned Morgan recently announced that she would govern according to a “Red Welsh Way”. This was an echo of the “clear red water” policy that defined Welsh Labour during the Blair era. It was also a signal: Welsh Labour is not just an administrative outpost of Westminster Labour. It has its own values, its own electorate, and, increasingly, its own agenda.

Morgan has described this relationship as being like an extended family, making clear that her priority is Wales. This framing betrays the fundamental tension at play – both a declaration of distance, and a reminder of our dependence.

The Limits of Distinction

The divergence between Welsh Labour and Westminster is now facing hard limits. But this time, the First Minister’s differences are not with a Conservative administration, but with her own party colleagues.

In a recent podcast interview with the BBC, Morgan said that her disagreements with the UK party – elected less than a year ago – already extend to a “list”.

On welfare reform, Starmer’s Labour has so far refused to scrap the two-child benefit cap, despite longstanding opposition from across the Labour movement.

A review into disability benefits has sparked concerns about vital support being stripped away from some of the most vulnerable in society. Morgan has made clear her discomfort, particularly given Wales’s higher rates of illness, disability, and poverty.

Her public opposition to changes in winter fuel payments, which disproportionately affect people in Wales, has further highlighted the growing gulf.

Other longstanding funding injustices persist. The HS2 classification, which still designates a wholly English railway as an “England and Wales” project, denies Wales nearly £5 billion in consequential funding. The Starmer government has yet to act.

Welsh Labour has taken a clear stance on the Crown Estate, too, calling for devolution in line with the Scottish precedent. Yet Labour MPs in Westminster voted this down, including those representing Welsh constituencies. 

These injustices are not relics of Tory misrule. They are live, current decisions being taken (or avoided) by Labour in power. For Welsh Labour, this is no longer a comfortable balancing act, it is an existential dilemma.

The Collapse of Ambiguity

The long-maintained ambiguity of Welsh Labour – part of the same party, yet distinct in tone and ambition –  is being tested like never before.

In opposition, Welsh Labour could criticise the UK Government while aligning itself with the ideals of Labour in exile. But that ambiguity is no longer tenable now Labour governs at both ends of the M4.

If Westminster fails to deliver for Wales, Welsh Labour can no longer deflect blame onto a hostile government. The scrutiny now falls squarely on internal party dynamics, on whether Labour in power truly recognises Wales’s needs and priorities.  

Just like Schrödinger’s cat, Labour in Wales is both in power and powerless, progressive and cautious, devolved and dependent, until the UK party opens the box and reveals our reality.

This leaves us with a simple question: which Labour really runs Wales?

And if we can’t really tell, or it becomes clear that the “extended family” dynamic is one of a subservient Senedd and a paternalistic Prime Minister, then what does this say about the meaning of governance – and democracy – in Wales?

Whose Labour Will Stand in 2026?

This new political reality has direct implications for the 2026 Senedd election.

The longer Labour is in power in both Cardiff Bay and Westminster, the more the old story of “we’d love to do more but we’re constrained by Westminster” will wear thin.

Rhetoric alone may have served Welsh Labour well until 2024. But now, they will be judged not just by their words, but by what they win, resist, or concede under a Labour government at UK level. 

Welsh Labour’s success will be measured by whether warm words about migration translate into policy that attracts and retains the healthcare workers we desperately need; whether the claims of nagging Starmer for HS2 cash leads to any actual funding; whether we continue to use the flawed and outdated Barnett Formula, which fails to account for Wales’s distinct demographic, economic, and infrastructural needs.

The danger for Eluned Morgan is clear: if the Starmer government continues to lack ambition for Wales and pursue a punitive agenda that disproportionately harms us, Welsh Labour reveals itself to the public as impotent and irrelevant.

Too aligned to resist, too subordinate to lead. In power, but out of steam. The “Red Welsh Way” will be no more than a rhetorical garnish on a menu set by Westminster.

For voters in Wales who back devolution, fairness, and the welfare state, this could be an historic breaking point. The political centre ground that Welsh Labour has long dominated may start to fray.

Others will step in, demanding the needs of Welsh society are no longer overlooked.

No Longer Settling for Symbolism

In 2026, the question for the public may not be about which party is best at accommodating the vacuum of power created by our current devolution settlement – acting the part of government while lacking the means.

The question will be about who is willing to challenge that vacuum, to demand more than managed decline, and to fight for the tangible difference Wales needs.

Voters may no longer settle for symbolism. They will ask: who offers a viable pathway to real power, real investment, and real ambition for Wales?

James Downs is a mental health campaigner, researcher and expert by experience in eating disorders.

He lives in Cardiff and can be contacted at @jamesldowns on X and Instagram, or via his website: jamesdowns.co.uk