Somebody’s Being Played

Ben Wildsmith

Next week’s Gorton & Denton by election in Manchester has illuminated some of the differences and similarities between English and Welsh politics in 2026.

Labour messaging in that campaign has looked surprisingly similar to that employed during the recent Caerphilly Senedd by election.

Despite the party’s catastrophic showing in that poll, Labour has persisted in relying on negative messaging around the dangers of a Reform UK victory. ‘The Greens can’t win here’ has replaced ‘Plaid can’t win here’ on posters that are, once again, at variance with the bookmakers’ reading of the situation.

Paddy Power has the Greens at 1/2 and Labour at 8/1. So, if Labour’s posters are to be believed, you can make a packet at the bookies’ expense.

That Labour seems not to have learned from its experience in Caerphilly is illustrative of the party’s wider malaise. It seems stuck in a doom loop of deeply conventional thinking that relies on spreading fear of change whilst invalidating the legitimate grievances of voters.

Yoked to Bank of England economics as if they were devolved from the divine, the party is hemmed in by its belief that the UK is inherently conservative.

The timorous u-turning of Keir Starmer’s government whenever it looks as if it might make a substantive change looks less like caution or flexibility than a lack of conviction.

Despite the volatility of world affairs, no real crisis has visited this government yet, and you must wonder if it is capable of reacting to one decisively. Keir Starmer’s initial response to events in Gaza – advocating war crimes before claiming he’d misspoken – doesn’t inspire confidence in that regard.

Evolved

Reform UK, contrastingly, recognises a revolutionary moment when it sees one. It’s approach in Manchester, however, has evolved since Caerphilly and it’s interesting to speculate whether that is a case of learning a lesson or whether the party sees differences between politics in Wales and England.

Here, Reform’s most successful line of attack against Plaid Cymru is to tie the party to Labour. It is a serious failure of Welsh governance that so far into our devolved journey, many people don’t understand how our system works.

Resultingly, Reform has been able to mischaracterise Plaid’s cooperation with Labour as a formal or ideological partnership when, in reality, it is the product of a system that demands it to function. Labour policies like the 20mph limit and the unfairly maligned nation of sanctuary are ascribed to Plaid as if they originated with the party. Recently, the passing of a budget was apparently proof that Plaid and Labour are in bed together.

Views differ on whether Plaid has, historically, been too forgiving of Labour – for the record I think it has – but without cooperation no Welsh government can function and to suggest defunding the nation to make a political point is juvenile bomb throwing.

Extremists

Still, it is interesting to see the difference in Reform’s approach in Manchester. Whilst Plaid is characterised as a pliant handmaiden of the status quo, Reform messaging on the Greens paints them as dangerous extremists and tools of Islamism.

Here, Reform seeks to act as a conservative force, emphasising insurgent threats to an established way of life. Its Welsh strategy is the opposite, suggesting that an established cabal of Plaid/Labour bureaucrats can only be taken down by Nigel Farage and his plucky band of ex-Tory cabinet ministers.

Going forward, this contradiction ought to be emphasised by Reform’s opponents.

In England, Farage has projected a Baden-Powell type of nostalgia for lost values. It’s a well-worn Tory trope beloved of characters as diverse as Enoch Powell and John Major. Here in Wales, though, Farage has attempted, with some success, to usurp the radical tradition.

Merthyr Tydfil

His fondness for holding key events in Merthyr Tydfil isn’t accidental. As he crosses the Prince of Wales bridge, Farage transforms from a peddler of the Golden Age, keen to preserve tradition, to an ersatz Dic Penderyn – determined to destroy and make anew.

This ought to trouble his supporters in both nations. It is not possible to accommodate both positions honestly and such an all-things-to-all-people appeal will create losers somewhere.

History would suggest that a renewed English ‘golden age’ is unlikely to create a revolutionised society here in Wales.

Somebody’s being played, and my betting is that it’s us.