Standing up for Wales against a UK Government that is depriving the nation of a fair deal is a potentially winning narrative
Martin Shipton
If Plaid Cymru does indeed form the next Welsh government, how much greater success than Eluned Morgan will Rhun ap Iorwerth have in wringing concessions from Westminster?
It’s a delicate question for both Plaid and the Labour Party.
Much of Plaid’s appeal derives from the fact that it is a party based in Wales, without an affiliation to a larger entity beyond its own borders. It can therefore claim with considerable veracity to be wholly committed to the cause of Wales.
Since shortly after the beginning of political devolution in 1999, Welsh Labour has presented itself as a party that is “standing up for Wales”. At different times this had different meanings. For the best part of a decade it meant working with the UK Labour government at a time when the economy was booming and funding for public services was going up at a rate above inflation.
It’s true that in the National Assembly’s first year, opposition parties made a fuss about Westminster’s failure to provide match funding for EU regional aid programmes – but removing Alun Michael from office largely drew a line under that row.
After 2010 the dynamic changed. A Tory-led UK government introduced austerity policies and successive Welsh Labour governments under Carwyn Jones and Mark Drakeford cast themselves as the champions of Wales against a hostile force in Westminster.
In terms of messaging, this was extremely successful. Following Brexit, when Westminster tried to claw back powers from the devolved nations over matters like managing regional aid policy, the Welsh Labour government made common cause with the SNP government in Scotland to fight back. From the opposition benches at Westminster, Welsh Labour MPs sang from the same hymn sheet.
As things have turned out, Labour’s victory in the 2024 general election has turned out to be a disaster in terms of helping Welsh Labour’s chances of forming the next government in Wales. The suggestion that having two Labour governments working together would bring great rewards for the people of Wales hasn’t materialised.
Most remain discontented because of a drop in their living standards brought about by the failure of salaries to keep pace with prices – and see decisions taken by the UK Labour government as having exacerbated their problems.
What is additionally damaging to Labour in Wales is the party’s failure to take seriously the grievances that crystallised during the period when the Tories were in power at Westminster – most notably the issue of fair rail funding.
When Labour was in opposition at Westminster, the cynical ploy of treating HS2 as an England and Wales project rather that an England-only one, with significant consequential funding losses for Wales, was a matter that Welsh Labour ministers argued against as vociferously as Plaid Cymru.
It’s a different story now, with the UK Treasury under a Labour Chancellor as determined as the Tories had been not to change course. Other proposed rail toutes are to be treated in the same way.
Lack of influence
Eluned Morgan may have said repeatedly that she raises such matters with Keir Starmer whenever she meets him, but her inability to persuade him to change his mind demonstrates the lack of influence she has over him and makes her look pitifully ineffectual.
Likewise the UK Government’s intransigence over calls to devolve justice and policing. We have reached a point where Welsh Labour calls on Westminster to take certain action, including devolution of the Crown Estate, for example, are met by a point-blank refusal within days.
How plausible is it, then, for Plaid Cymru to have greater expectations? If a Labour First Minister gets a brush-off every time she asks for more (forgive the two Dickensian allusions in quick succession), on what possible grounds should Rhun ap Iorwerth expect a response that is more favourable?
I asked one of his closest lieutenants – the ever genial Mabon ap Gwynfor, who said he had been giving this very question much thought, especially as it grew more likely that Plaid would be in government from May.
He said that as a student of history, it made sense to look back to what had happened in Wales in the mid-1960s. His grandfather Gwynfor Evans had won the Carmarthen by-election in 1966, becoming the first Plaid Cymru MP. There were two other by-election near misses for Plaid in quick succession in Caerphilly and Rhondda, with massive swings from Labour.
Panicked
The Labour Party was panicked by its fear of a nationalist advance, and reacted by directing public investment projects to Wales, including the M4, the DVLA in Swansea and the Royal Mint at Llantrisant. The UK Government also set up what became the Kilbrandon Commission, which recommended the establishment of a Welsh Assembly.
There is certainly plenty of evidence about the turmoil within the Labour Party in the 1960s at the prospect of a sustained increase in support for Plaid Cymru. Some Welsh MPs urged Prime Minister Harold Wilson to ditch George Thomas as the Secretary of State for Wales because of his perceived anti-Welsh stance.
As things turned out, the feared huge increase in support for Plaid didn’t happen at the time, but more than half a century later we are into wholly new territory.
In the intervening period, the SNP has become the de facto natural party of government in Scotland, with support for Scottish independence continuing to ride high. That has given the Scottish Government leverage over the UK Government that it wouldn’t have otherwise. Westminster wouldn’t dare to cut Scotland’s funding, for example, by replacing the Barnett formula, out of which the Scottish Government does well.
Northern Ireland also does relatively well in terms of funding from the Treasury because of the ever-present possibility of a recurrence of terrorism.
Leverage
Wales in the past has lacked such leverage, but may be on the verge of gaining it in May, adding to concerns about the possible break-up of the UK.
The UK Government will have to make a decision about how it reacts to the new political architecture. Does it play hardball and reject demands for change from a Plaid government? Would it take the view that adopting a “robust unionist” stance by making further encroachments on devolved powers could lessen support for Plaid and help Labour make a comeback? That would be a risky strategy.
The role of the UK Government’s Wales Office will, I suspect, increasingly be viewed dubiously. Mabon ap Gwynfor said: “Under Jo Stevens, who has no interest in devolution, the Wales Office has become no more than a PR operation for the UK Government. Instead of being Wales’ voice in Westminster, Jo Stevens is very much Westminster’s voice and presence in Wales.”
There is no question that in order to prove its competence in government, Plaid Cymru will have to make some early wins in terms of delivery. But all governments also need a narrative that will help people understand what they are trying to achieve.
Standing up for Wales against a UK Government that is depriving the nation of a fair deal is a potentially winning narrative that Labour would be foolish to gift to Rhun ap Iorwerth.
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Westminster parties know they only need to hold enough seats in England to form a government to rule Wales, Scotland and the north of Ireland. Just don’t see there’s any reason for them to care what we want. There’s no legal or political repercussions for them in ignoring any demands.
Nice one Ships…..that’s the best argument for voting Plaid I have heard!!!
It is a clear narrative (though not exactly new) and probably will be a winning one on this occasion. Not at all Convinced though that any ‘leverage’ as it were will come of it. That’s not to say I disagree with the historical observations, simply that they are ideologically outdated, on account of two developments in Unionism and one constitutional. The key point is that unlike in the past no one on the unionist side believes anymore that further devolution is a means to head off support for nationalist parties. Indeed it’s probably the consensus view that the opposite is… Read more »
Initially I suspect the UK government will continue to just blatantly say No. It won’t be until a Plaid government starts to use it against it, as a reason for independence, that, as with Scotland, it’ll change policy. Probably, by then, as with once again Scotland, it will be too late. The seeds of a different more prosperous independent country will be firmly implanted in the minds of the Welsh public.
I agree. The threat of independence is the primary leverage against Westminster and the status quo. Cough up or we leave and do things better.
Is it? They’ve handled Scotland well over it. Fact is they can say no to a referendum, they can drag this out as long as they like and there’s nothing we can do. All they’ve got to do is distract voters and over time support will wain… look at YesCymru for example; all that support and no where to go with it and eventually people lost interest in the organisation. It stagnated and now its barely a shadow of what it was. Point is; currently the movement and Plaid seeks a path which needs Westminster to say yes which brings… Read more »
While I would want to agree with you on this, the presence of deform and its anti Welsh language, identity and senedd rhetoric has also fed into PC’s lap. These clowns were not there at the Scottish referendum.
Of course, Westminster always brings out that old chestnut that the Scots have already had their vote on the issue so there’s no need for another referendum. They don’t have that argument with Wales.
I agree. It is a winning narrative. UK Labour are the enemy of Wales. I want during Senedd election debates Rhun ap Iorwerth to drill it into the Welsh public how London Labour has continued to insult us over fair funding, deny only Wales HS2 consequential afforded to both Scotland & NI, their attitude towards further devolution, bypassing the Senedd, and their powergrab centrist direct rule agenda. I’ve also had the misfortune of watching Welsh Labour’s pitiful adverts on YouTube where we see First Minister Eluned Morgan say to the camera how Welsh Labour, “always stands up for Wales. Vote… Read more »
They will use the monarch as a political tool to invoke some facade of Britishness. They did this with the ‘investiture’ in 1969, a kind of taxpayer funded circus. That tool, however, is now much diminished.
I agree the narrative of Wales being denied a fair deal by Westminster as a ‘winning” electoral message. But political success requires concrete and actionable policies that voters can hold to account, not just rhetorical framing. The narrative of ‘Westminster oppressing Wales’ certainty mobilises some voters, but without clear policies on the economy, public services, cost of living or employment that directly affect peoples lives, it risks falling flat with the population who want pragmatic changes and to see schools improving, waiting list going down- though the latter is happening naturally like in England. I suspect we’re seeing a long term… Read more »
Fairness is a vote winning message but will fall on deaf ears in Whitehall where the bureaucratic system was trained over centuries to ignore matters of morality and honour in order to efficiently plunder an empire. They only respond to global public humiliation and a threat of being made to work on wine time Fridays. Instead a relentless and unified narrative from all the nations and impoverished English regions that focuses on the fiscal irresponsibility and economic incompetence of running an integrated economy that chases diminishing returns by continuing to put more eggs in one overheated basket while leaving the… Read more »
I suspect that the ‘do nothing’ approach of the Labour government in London will come under increasing pressure after the Senedd elections from MPs and Labour councils. The councils will face elections in 2027 and very few parliament’s run their full length unless they are in real trouble. Labour MPs in particular who could be facing an earlier than expected election will be wanting to change the narrative on the ground and will be looking back to the 1960s to see how they fought off a Plaid surge last time.
What on earth do all the voters, mainly but not solely Reform leaning, who want the Welsh government to reduce immigration expect when they have no powers? When it’s entirely under Westminister’s control? Am starting to think you should have to pass a test about what is actually devolved before you can vote for Senedd Members. It’s all right. I know where that leads and I wouldn’t do it if I were dictator. I would have good civics education though, for those interested. Not that everyone will be, no matter how hard you try. Expect the immigration-focused voters will be… Read more »
Come on Plaid Cymru,this is our best chance ever for Prosperity Wales and all it’s Peoples.Lets do it!
I agree that “fairness” is a winning generality for Plaid at present faced with Labour’s total indifference to Wales; but if the answer from Westminster is anything other than a flat “No” (or even if it is), there will come a point where Plaid will have to define what fairness actually means. That’s the tricky bit and there the real leverage will appear or disappear.
We will have only one chance to get this right. That’s why the goodwill and support of public service workers will be crucial. A Doge-style assault on the public sector would be wholly counterproductive. During years of work in public bodies, I met dedicated and highly-skilled public servants full of ideas for improving the services, eliminating waste, and cutting costs. A respectful and friendly approach to public sector workers and their unions will be the first step in any successful strategy for government.
Plaid have been in cahoots with labour for many many years. They are one and the same so the same we will get…..poor housing, education, health, transport…..all devolved to the Senedd many moons ago!