Standing up for Wales against a UK Government that is depriving the nation of a fair deal is a potentially winning narrative

Martin Shipton

If Plaid Cymru does indeed form the next Welsh government, how much greater success than Eluned Morgan will Rhun ap Iorwerth have in wringing concessions from Westminster?

It’s a delicate question for both Plaid and the Labour Party.

Much of Plaid’s appeal derives from the fact that it is a party based in Wales, without an affiliation to a larger entity beyond its own borders. It can therefore claim with considerable veracity to be wholly committed to the cause of Wales.

Since shortly after the beginning of political devolution in 1999, Welsh Labour has presented itself as a party that is “standing up for Wales”. At different times this had different meanings. For the best part of a decade it meant working with the UK Labour government at a time when the economy was booming and funding for public services was going up at a rate above inflation.

It’s true that in the National Assembly’s first year, opposition parties made a fuss about Westminster’s failure to provide match funding for EU regional aid programmes – but removing Alun Michael from office largely drew a line under that row.

After 2010 the dynamic changed. A Tory-led UK government introduced austerity policies and successive Welsh Labour governments under Carwyn Jones and Mark Drakeford cast themselves as the champions of Wales against a hostile force in Westminster.

In terms of messaging, this was extremely successful. Following Brexit, when Westminster tried to claw back powers from the devolved nations over matters like managing regional aid policy, the Welsh Labour government made common cause with the SNP government in Scotland to fight back. From the opposition benches at Westminster, Welsh Labour MPs sang from the same hymn sheet.

As things have turned out, Labour’s victory in the 2024 general election has turned out to be a disaster in terms of helping Welsh Labour’s chances of forming the next government in Wales. The suggestion that having two Labour governments working together would bring great rewards for the people of Wales hasn’t materialised.

Most remain discontented because of a drop in their living standards brought about by the failure of salaries to keep pace with prices – and see decisions taken by the UK Labour government as having exacerbated their problems.

What is additionally damaging to Labour in Wales is the party’s failure to take seriously the grievances that crystallised during the period when the Tories were in power at Westminster – most notably the issue of fair rail funding.

When Labour was in opposition at Westminster, the cynical ploy of treating HS2 as an England and Wales project rather that an England-only one, with significant consequential funding losses for Wales, was a matter that Welsh Labour ministers argued against as vociferously as Plaid Cymru.

It’s a different story now, with the UK Treasury under a Labour Chancellor as determined as the Tories had been not to change course. Other proposed rail toutes are to be treated in the same way.

Lack of influence

Eluned Morgan may have said repeatedly that she raises such matters with Keir Starmer whenever she meets him, but her inability to persuade him to change his mind demonstrates the lack of influence she has over him and makes her look pitifully ineffectual.

Likewise the UK Government’s intransigence over calls to devolve justice and policing. We have reached a point where Welsh Labour calls on Westminster to take certain action, including devolution of the Crown Estate, for example, are met by a point-blank refusal within days.

How plausible is it, then, for Plaid Cymru to have greater expectations? If a Labour First Minister gets a brush-off every time she asks for more (forgive the two Dickensian allusions in quick succession), on what possible grounds should Rhun ap Iorwerth expect a response that is more favourable?

I asked one of his closest lieutenants – the ever genial Mabon ap Gwynfor, who said he had been giving this very question much thought, especially as it grew more likely that Plaid would be in government from May.

He said that as a student of history, it made sense to look back to what had happened in Wales in the mid-1960s. His grandfather Gwynfor Evans had won the Carmarthen by-election in 1966, becoming the first Plaid Cymru MP. There were two other by-election near misses for Plaid in quick succession in Caerphilly and Rhondda, with massive swings from Labour.

Panicked

The Labour Party was panicked by its fear of a nationalist advance, and reacted by directing public investment projects to Wales, including the M4, the DVLA in Swansea and the Royal Mint at Llantrisant. The UK Government also set up what became the Kilbrandon Commission, which recommended the establishment of a Welsh Assembly.

There is certainly plenty of evidence about the turmoil within the Labour Party in the 1960s at the prospect of a sustained increase in support for Plaid Cymru. Some Welsh MPs urged Prime Minister Harold Wilson to ditch George Thomas as the Secretary of State for Wales because of his perceived anti-Welsh stance.

As things turned out, the feared huge increase in support for Plaid didn’t happen at the time, but more than half a century later we are into wholly new territory.

In the intervening period, the SNP has become the de facto natural party of government in Scotland, with support for Scottish independence continuing to ride high. That has given the Scottish Government leverage over the UK Government that it wouldn’t have otherwise. Westminster wouldn’t dare to cut Scotland’s funding, for example, by replacing the Barnett formula, out of which the Scottish Government does well.

Northern Ireland also does relatively well in terms of funding from the Treasury because of the ever-present possibility of a recurrence of terrorism.

Leverage

Wales in the past has lacked such leverage, but may be on the verge of gaining it in May, adding to concerns about the possible break-up of the UK.

The UK Government will have to make a decision about how it reacts to the new political architecture. Does it play hardball and reject demands for change from a Plaid government? Would it take the view that adopting a “robust unionist” stance by making further encroachments on devolved powers could lessen support for Plaid and help Labour make a comeback? That would be a risky strategy.

The role of the UK Government’s Wales Office will, I suspect, increasingly be viewed dubiously. Mabon ap Gwynfor said: “Under Jo Stevens, who has no interest in devolution, the Wales Office has become no more than a PR operation for the UK Government. Instead of being Wales’ voice in Westminster, Jo Stevens is very much Westminster’s voice and presence in Wales.”

There is no question that in order to prove its competence in government, Plaid Cymru will have to make some early wins in terms of delivery. But all governments also need a narrative that will help people understand what they are trying to achieve.

Standing up for Wales against a UK Government that is depriving the nation of a fair deal is a potentially winning narrative that Labour would be foolish to gift to Rhun ap Iorwerth.