The big choice that will soon face Rhun ap Iorwerth

Jonathan Edwards

Around two weeks from now, once the counting has begun, the political focus will quickly shift from election battle lines to the big question about the formation of the next government of our country.

Based on the polls over recent months we have a good idea of the likely result of the election. The first poll of the election may well have had the Plaid Cymru leadership very excited that they could secure an incredible majority in the election; however. subsequent polls indicate a tightening of the election race culminating in the latest poll with Reform leading in terms of seat allocation.

Despite the polling dip, it is highly likely that Plaid Cymru will be in best position in the new Senedd to successfully nominate the next First Minister whether it tops the poll or not. After that things get far less clear.

It would however be a nightmare scenario for Plaid if Reform got most votes, yet Rhun ap Iorwerth is elected First Minister with the support of Labour and Green Senedd Members. Reform is not ready for the responsibility of running the Welsh Government and neither does it really aspire to it.

Reform at its core is a disruptive political force, not a serious political operation. It appeals to people, arguably with good reason, who are disillusioned and fed up with a political class which in their eyes is presiding over managed decline.

The ideal scenario for them is that they come top, yet are shut out from power. I really don’t get the feeling that the Senedd political establishment understand the dangers to the whole devolution project if this scenario plays out.

On becoming First Minister, Rhun ap Iorwerth, it would appear to me, will face four possible scenarios – all dependant on the actual seat allocation of course. Each has positive and negative outcomes for Plaid, and I am sure the party’s top brass will be deep in thought about their preferred way forward.

The position that Plaid Cymru have adopted for the election period is that their preference would be to run a minority government no matter the result.

If the most positive Plaid polls are correct and they secure north of 40 seats, then this option would become more viable. I would suspect that the talk of going it alone is more of an election tactic aimed at avoiding getting embroiled in premature coalition speculation before public votes are cast.

The Plaid electoral coalition across the country is a very broad church on the political spectrum; ambiguity is therefore essential to harvest as many votes as possible.

The main benefit of trying to govern Wales as a minority is that if managed cleverly, Plaid would be able to keep that electoral coalition together in a way that it will not be able to do if for instance it strikes an understanding with the Labour Party.

Furthermore, if Plaid enters a formal coalition as opposed to some sort of confidence and supply arrangement, that will mean handing out Cabinet posts to another party resulting in some very unhappy Plaid Senedd Members who would have hoped to serve in government.

The negative for the party in forming a minority government is that every vote in the Senedd will be on a knife edge. It will take considerable skill to get all government business through.

That may not be too difficult at the start of the Senedd term, but the general election cycle will soon be upon us and quickly after that the next Senedd election.

Call me cynical, but without some sort of formal understanding I don’t see the other parties being overly helpful.

Politicians have longer memories than elephants. Labour Senedd Members will need no reminding who dismantled the Cooperation Agreement between their party and Plaid Cymru in the Senedd that has just been dissolved.

Minority administration

It could well come to pass that Plaid Cymru try and run a minority administration at the start of the Senedd term.

The SNP managed a similar situation during their first term in office. However, the new Plaid Senedd group has the potential to be highly combustible.

If Plaid decide to take this path, as the Senedd takes its course they could look for a more formal understanding with whoever can give them the numbers to get over the magic 49 benchmark.

The second scenario is a Plaid – Labour deal of some sort. The advantages of such a deal are that both parties have worked together to different degrees since the first Assembly.

Plaid isn’t standing this election based on dismantling the Welsh body politic developed by Labour since 1999. It may also want to keep Labour tied in as closely as possible to protect a flank from attack, especially with the 2030 Senedd election in mind. It would also make it far more difficult for Labour to renew while anchored to a Plaid-run Welsh Government.

With Labour as partners, Plaid could hope to gain some concessions from the UK Government. If they are thinking along these lines, they are being highly optimistic. I don’t expect any red carpet rolling from 10 Downing Street: quite the reverse.

Plaid will need to think carefully about how reliable a partner Labour will be at the start of the next Senedd. Labour in Wales is going to go through a very traumatic experience if it loses power in Wales. I suppose the scale of the defeat matters.

If Labour is reduced to a rump, then I don’t think the party, even if it has the numbers, is going to be in any state to be focused on governing our country. The introspection as they choose a new leader is going to be all consuming, together with the likely leadership contest at UK level.

Unpopularity

If Plaid actively co-governs with Labour it risks blowing up its electoral coalition. The new leadership Plaid is promising will look like old leadership. For many long standing Plaid voters in its heartlands and the valleys, Labour are loathed. Furthermore, central to the explosion in support for Plaid over recent months has been the unpopularity of the Labour UK Government.

If Plaid is seen as too close to Labour in the Senedd, it is going to be difficult for them to distance themselves from events over which they have no control.

The third scenario is a Plaid – Green understanding. One poll has given the seat allocation for such a deal. Plaid will find this option most appealing I suspect. Firstly, it will be a government that looks fresh.

A Rhun ap Iorwerth and Anthony Slaughter photo op on the Senedd steps will resemble the David Cameron and Nick Clegg Rose garden moment way back in 2010.

It would also gift Plaid a free hand to attack Westminster with gusto in a manner that would be more difficult if the partner was Labour. Plaid will also feel they can dominate the Greens, protect their flanks and deflect unpopular decisions.

The negatives are that the Greens are a highly polarising force and will become more so if Zack Polanski becomes a genuine challenger for number 10. The Greens will also surely not accommodate Plaid duplicity on renewable energy developments. A party that believes there can be no compromise on the climate crisis will not support a government that makes it more difficult to develop renewable energy production and transmission and distribution infrastructure.

The last scenario is a ‘progressive’ coalition of some sort of Plaid, Labour and the Greens. Based on the latest You Gov poll this week, to secure a majority Plaid is going to need more than one partner. The advantage is that Plaid could position itself as the default leader of the progressive side of Welsh politics which reflects the way our politics is polarising now between left-wing pro-Wales and right-wing unionist blocs.

The negatives are that such a scenario could well suit Reform and the Tories, enabling them to gather any discontent. Our politics would also become even more polarised, and I am not entirely sure that is a long-term positive outcome for democracy or society, although admittedly it could boost support for independence in the short to medium term. Holding a coalition together of more than one junior party will also be more difficult.

Risk

Politics is a game of opportunities and risks. This article looks at matters from a Plaid Cymru strategic perspective and is in no way exhaustive. There are surely senior party figures doing far more thinking than me on the choices ahead. Similarly, the other protagonists in the equation will have their own considerations.

One thing is for sure, Plaid Cymru is about to make one of the most important decisions in the party’s history. The wrong choice will not only undermine the next Welsh Government but also, considering the likely lead party, the cause of Welsh nationalism.

I cannot be the only one that feels the election so far has been a bit of a damp squib. Don’t be fooled however as Welsh politics will surely ignite when the counting is finished on May 8 and the quest for power begins.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-24