The Coming Storm

Ben Wildsmith

The rise of Reform UK has taken on a momentum that suggests inevitability. If polls such as today’s in the Sunday Times are indicative of a genuine shift in voting intentions, then South Wales, in particular, is looking at a political shift unparalleled for a century.

This, remember, comes before Elon Musk’s anticipated injection of cash into the party’s coffers.

Reform UK has no formal structure in Wales and lacks any recognisable Welsh leaders around whom a distinct offer can be made to the nation. If they manage to unearth a charismatic Welsh politician to head up their operations here, current predictions may prove to be conservative.

Curiously, the public has little idea of what Reform UK’s agenda in government would be. Aside from a vague understanding that immigration would be restricted and environmental measures reversed, the nuts and bolts of the party’s offer seem unimportant to its supporters.

Emotional

This suggests that the party’s appeal is less ideological than emotional. People feel that things are going very badly in their communities and that established political parties don’t appreciate the urgency of the situation.

This, of course, is the very impetus that led to the formation of the Labour Party and that specific part of its chequered history has inspired seemingly limitless loyalty in the Valleys.

Let’s look at that Sunday Times poll again. The three MPs predicted to lose to Reform UK are Chris Bryant, Nia Griffith, and Stephen Kinnock: a knight, a dame, and the son of a lord.

When you are wandering around Tonypandy, Llanelli, or Maesteg, do you feel the beneficent warmth of the UK establishment in these towns, represented as they are by titled recipients of royal patronage?

Now that we have Labour governments ‘at both ends of the M4’ do you see the prospect of renewal in those communities? Do you believe in it? Or, like me, do you see a grotesquely complacent and entrenched Labour establishment that has for decades pissed in our ears whilst telling us it’s raining?

Trouble

When is the last time you remember any of these politicians, or their colleagues, causing any trouble on behalf of their constituents?

Does Sir Keir Starmer fear their knock on his door, demanding that immediate sums be found to regenerate their loyal, Labour constituencies?

Does he worry that they might appear in the media, demanding better for Wales?

Well, that’s not how you earn your trip to the palace.

So, eventually, like Bill Sykes’ dog, it seems the Welsh electorate has been kicked once too often.

Reactions to abuse, though, are rarely measured and thought through.

In the heady rush away from familiar humiliations, people seem to be running towards a new version. In the words of Bernard in Yes Minister, ‘Something must done; this is something, therefore it must be done.’

Gamble

If, however, people are willing to gamble on a party with no track record and little by way of detailed policy, then the desire for change is real. Why then are opposing parties not seeing the blindingly obvious need for radicalism in their offers?

If Farage can take over politics by vaguely blaming foreigners and carping about net zero, imagine the appeal of a party that promised capped utility bills, subsidised rail fares, rent controls, and capital expenditure to revitalise the economy; a party that explicitly stands for people against business interests.

The ruination of civic life will only accelerate under Farage’s Mussolini-meets-Arthur Daley sham of a political enterprise.

If nothing else, though, its appeal to voters proves that they are not, as we were assured, frightened of bold changes.

The trick for Plaid Cymru, the Greens, and any putative party launched by expelled Labour MPs will be to marry the electorate’s revolutionary mood to an achievable and decent progressive agenda.