The constitutional tectonic plates on these islands are on the move

Jonathan Edwards

The constitutional tectonic plates on these islands are always on the move. For as long as there is an ambition for independence in Scotland and Wales, and unification in Ireland, there will always be a debate about the future governing arrangements of the constituent parts of the British State and on the Emerald Isle.

Two developments over recent weeks caught my eye, which I am sure will be of interest to those who are contemplating the next steps for our own national journey here in Wales.

Fine Gael, one of the traditional two big parties that has dominated the politics of the Republic of Ireland, announced that it was preparing a blueprint for Irish unity to be published by the end of the year. The Tάnaiste (Deputy Prime Minister) of the Irish Government, Simon Harris, has promised a detailed document “not just sloganeering or setting false deadlines” which would outline what unity “could mean in practical terms, politically, economically and societally”.

Traditionally Irish Unity has been the main rallying call of Sinn Féin as the only all-Ireland party. There is little doubt that this significant statement by Fine Gael is a response to the growth of Sinn Féin who are now the second largest party in the Republic behind Fianna Fάil.

An opinion poll in May put support for a united Ireland in the Republic on 66%. Mr Harris was keen to point out in his statement that every single party in the Dάil, the Irish Parliament, supported Irish unity in principle.

Having said that, it would appear to me that there is something far deeper at work than mere political positioning. The Brexit Referendum fundamentally changed the debate on the island of Ireland.

Whereas before it was difficult to see how a majority for unification could be secured in Northern Ireland, polls have indicated over the last decade a steady increase in support for unity. I should caveat that the last poll indicates a slight fall.

Regardless, what was interesting about the statement of Mr Harris was that a large part of it was aimed at the traditional unionist community of the North, where his party does not contest elections. Speaking about the national flag of the Republic he said: “There are some people who sadly think the orange was added to the flag because without it, it would be the Limerick flag, but the orange is there for a very specific reason.

“We have two traditions on this island. [The flag is] white to represent peace in the middle. And we have to have a conversation that’s respectful and inclusive.”

The Fine Gael blueprint according to Mr Harris will aim to build what he called “durable consent”.

Meanwhile in Scotland it is reported that the Labour Party is rethinking its stance on independence, and particularly its opposition to another referendum.

The party in Scotland, in response to the heavy defeat it experienced in the Scottish Parliamentary election, is also set to discuss over the summer months whether it should formally split from the wider UK Labour Party.

Monica Lennon, a former senior Member of the Scottish Parliament who lost her seat in May, argued the party needed “a better answer on the constitution rather than just constantly saying no”.

Pressure group

Furthermore, during her interview with the BBC, Ms Lennon argued that the Labour Party in Scotland would continue to be rejected if it looked like a pressure group within a UK party structure. A message perhaps that the Labour Party in Wales should also be reflecting upon.

Do these developments mean that Irish Unity and Scottish independence are imminent? Of course not. However, they indicate that events are moving quickly as they are here in Wales with Plaid Cymru winning the Senedd election convincingly.

The big devolution speech by the likely new UK Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, this week didn’t address any of these issues.

Many will fully welcome his priority of dispersing power from Westminster and Whitehall. However, in doing so Mr Burnham is going to have to realise very quickly that if he treats Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as UK regions as opposed to distinct political entities, then momentum behind unification in Ireland and secession in Wales and Scotland is only likely to grow.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-24