The future of Welsh renewable energy lies offshore

Jonathan Dean

If Wales is serious about becoming a world leader in renewable energy, it must be clear about which battles are worth fighting for the greatest reward.

Wales has arguably already lost the race for large-scale onshore wind, as Scotland’s capacity already exceeds anything Wales could realistically achieve.

The same is true for large-scale ground-mounted solar, where the eastern counties of England have built up an enormous planning pipeline. Wales needs to be strategic and focus on areas where it has genuine advantages.

Offshore wind is one such area. Fixed-bottom offshore wind is well established in the North Sea, where shallow waters make development relatively straightforward. Existing supply chains can be extended into the Irish Sea, where UK offshore wind first started.

But the real opportunity lies in floating offshore wind. The Celtic Sea has the potential to provide up to 20% of the UK’s offshore wind requirement, offering Wales a chance to lead in a technology that is still emerging.

The National Energy Systems Operator (NESO) predicts that by 2050 Wales will need to generate at least 40 TWh of electricity, up from below 15 TWh today.

This level of generation could be met, and exceeded, through offshore wind alone. That creates the possibility of reaching net zero without making difficult trade-offs involving the loss of valued landscapes, carbon-rich upland peat and rare habitats, and the rural economy that depends heavily on tourism and agriculture.

Celtic sea

There are currently around 2,500 MW of offshore wind capacity in Welsh waters that is operational, under construction, or consented, all in the Irish Sea. The first major tranche of floating wind in the Celtic Sea has now been agreed at 4,200 MW.

With further opportunities in both the north and south, the 10,000 MW required by 2050 is within reach. Offshore wind also has the potential to support long-term service and maintenance jobs in coastal communities, in contrast to onshore wind, which tends to offer more limited long-term employment.

At the other end of the scale, something that has not yet been done well anywhere, but which has huge potential, is community-scale renewables.

Surveys consistently show strong public support for renewable energy in Wales, yet individual planning applications often meet fierce local opposition.

This apparent contradiction is partly explained by how questions are framed: people support renewables in principle, but react very differently when faced with large, highly visible infrastructure close to home.

The reality is that we do not yet have a clear model for how communities themselves want to contribute to the transition to net zero, because they have rarely been asked in a meaningful way.

Done properly, community-scale renewables, designed with local input and delivering local benefits, could be genuinely world-leading.

Grid capacity

One of the main barriers to this is grid capacity. To understand that it is important to recognise that there is no single “Welsh grid”, but layers of interconnected systems.

The transmission network operates at voltages above 132 kV across Great Britain, moving large amounts of electricity from where it is generated to where it is needed. That power is then stepped down through 132 kV, 33 kV and 11 kV distribution networks to reach homes, farms and businesses.

Most of the “grid issues” experienced by local users occur at these lower distribution voltages. This leads to situations where a farm may struggle to secure an 11 kV connection for rooftop solar, while a very large development nearby connects more easily to the transmission system.

Across Wales, the demand for electrification, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and local generation, is growing rapidly, but the final links in the network often lack capacity.

Investment

The next round of distribution network investment is now being planned, and it offers a real opportunity to address these constraints. Upgrading existing overhead lines with higher-capacity conductors could unlock significant additional capacity.

This reinforcement is needed anyway to support wider electrification, so enabling community-scale renewables is part of the same effort.

Community-scale projects are typically more acceptable because they are smaller, less intrusive, and deliver visible local benefits. Alongside the vast offshore resource, and the wider GB electricity system, they can play an important role in a balanced and resilient energy future for Wales.

Jonathan Dean is Director of The Campaign for the Protection of Rural Wales