The great rethink and the opportunity for progressives

Jonathan Edwards

Nearly 30 years ago, during my time at the University of Aberystwyth, I studied US foreign politics in some detail.

Even then, academics and analysts were talking about how the attention of the US would increasingly move from Europe to the Indo Pacific. The Soviet Union had been defeated, and the focus was moving to the emerging challenge of China in particular.

When trying to understand the Trumpian world view, I think this is a good place to start. The loss of status as the world’s most powerful economy would be a major blow to American prestige. China is the only other country in the same ballpark as the US.

IMF

The International Monetary Fund’s most recent analysis places nominal US GDP at $30 trillion. China is in second place at $19 trillion. In third place is Germany at $4.92 trillion dollars. The UK is ranked sixth at $3.73 trillion. The EU’s nominal GDP is $20.2 trillion.

Strategically the rapprochement with Russia serves several purposes for the MAGA (Make America Great Again) crew especially as Russia is no threat to the US’s economic status. It is not even in the top 10.

Firstly, in strategic terms, splitting the Sino-Russian pact is an imperative. The response to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has seen closer collaboration with China, which has enabled Putin to evade the impact of Western sanctions.

I held a similar opinion when considering the response to Russian aggression, but from the other way around. At a time when the Tory right was agitating for hostile relations with China, it was my view that if Europe wanted to isolate the Putin regime, then we had to hold our noses when it came to China.

Secondly, a war on the European continent that is sucking up US military and financial resources is, from a MAGA perspective, a distraction. Thirdly, the battle between China and the US is very much a race for precious metals and minerals, of which Ukraine has an abundance. The US wants to be able to access those resources one way or another.

Fourthly, both the US and Russia are oil and gas exporters; they have a mutual interest in preserving energy systems based on fossil fuels.

Fifthly, if following the sell out on the future of Ukraine we are left with an effective security border stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea, it would keep both Russia and Europe occupied.

Challenger

As far as the Trump world view goes that would be a bonus, as he views Europe as a challenger.

There are probably a whole host of other reasons which explain the thinking of the US administration.

The key point we must wake up to quickly in Europe is that the transatlantic partnership between the US and our continent as we understand it is gone.

How refreshing it was to listen to the new likely German Chancellor Friedrich Merz say it as it is. In a post-election debate he said the US is indifferent to the fate of Europe. The essence of his words was that we didn’t have the luxury of waiting for a new administration in Washington in 2029.

It appears to me that Trump has merely accelerated the way US foreign policy was going anyway; there is not going to be any turning back of the clock. There was also an element of domestic politics to his statement due to the love-in between the far right AfD, Germany’s second party after the election this week, and Trump.

Skewer

History is going to skewer the British right over the fallacy of Brexit.

When Putin marched into the Crimea, British politics, due to complete malfunction within the governing Tory party, was consumed by bogus enemies in Brussels. Following Brexit, in what can only be described as delusion, Global Britain pivoted to the Indo Pacific at a time when Putin was eyeing up the rest of Ukraine.

The Conservatives in pursuing this course of action have not pacified the most extreme fringes of the British right. They have acted as a gateway drug, legitimising Putin and Trump sympathisers in the shape of Reform which looks as if it is about to engulf the Tories.

Perhaps I am being too optimistic, but surely as events unfold the electorate will engage in a great rethink which may dismantle the old Brexit divides.

I think we can safely assume that most people who voted to leave the EU didn’t do so on the back of wanting to promote Russian imperial expansionism in a context where the US is washing its hands.

I understand the reluctance of the Labour leadership to re-open old Brexit wounds, but if Keir Starmer wants to avoid being similarly damned by history, he needs to react to the position the UK now finds itself in.

The US is no longer a reliable partner: when the British Government talks about being a bridge between the US and Europe it is kidding itself of its own importance.

Merz understands reality. He also understands how vulnerable the far right in his country is to their pro Putin and pro Trump world view. The question is, does Prime Minister Starmer also get it?

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24