The independence paradox and a possible road to victory
Jonathan Edwards
Last week’s article looked at the challenges the campaign for Welsh independence will face on getting to a legal referendum based on current political realities.
The plain fact of the matter, the only way to a legal referendum, is if a unionist political party (ie one committed to the British State) which has enough combined Senedd Members with Plaid Cymru to form a Senedd majority, is willing to accept a position of supporting a public vote.
Even if that highly unlikely event was to happen, then the UK Government would also need to endorse the position of the Senedd. A lot of stars will have to align therefore before the big question is ever put before the people of Wales.
Staggering
Notwithstanding these hurdles that the national movement in Wales faces, recent polls as discussed last week are quite staggering for those of us who support Wales becoming an independent country.
The 51% poll rating in support of Welsh independence within the context of EU membership is seismic.
The strategy that the Plaid Cymru group in Westminster pursued with vigour following the Brexit referendum of intertwining the Welsh and European questions has succeeded beyond our wildest dreams.
The position we took was guided by several factors. Firstly, considering the composition of the Welsh economy and the greater importance of exports to the EU, advancing an argument of only accepting a so-called soft Brexit (exiting from the EU political structures but staying within the EU economic frameworks) was the right thing to do in terms of minimising the damage to people’s economic wellbeing.
When the UK Government (and the Welsh Government as it happens) advocated leaving the frameworks, we then argued for a confirmatory referendum on the British Government’s policy.
Secondly, we were also driven by an understanding that Welsh independence can only ever be realised if Wales and England are situated within a common or larger economic entity.
Our preference was the existing European frameworks, but if the UK Government were to pursue a hard exit, then the new GB framework needed to be based on equality between Wales, England and Scotland as opposed to being Westminster dominated. Regrettably both battles were lost.
Thirdly, it also gave us a division line with our political opponents during the Parliamentary Brexit debates, all of whom apart from the Liberal Democrats supported a hard Brexit.
Paradox
The Welsh national movement today faces a strategic paradox. Brexit, which has given the campaign for independence so much energy, also poses difficulties in terms of how to achieve the aspiration.
I see some who support Welsh independence advancing the argument that the relationship between Wales and England following independence and EU membership would resemble the current arrangements on the island of Ireland (between the Republic and Northern Ireland).
While perfectly feasible, I don’t think there is any hope of ever winning a referendum based on advancing any sort of economic dislocation between Wales and England involving restrictions on the movement of goods and services.
In such a circumstance the no campaign would eat the yes campaign for breakfast.
The debate we faced in Westminster way back in 2016 could come into play once again, however, if the UK Government begins to reintegrate economically with the EU and ultimately rejoins the European single market and customs union.
While I don’t envisage such a drastic step at next week’s UK-EU summit in London, the talks could start the process which gets us there because it is plainly obvious it is in the UKs economic (and I would argue geopolitical) interests to rebuild bridges with the continent.
Sweet spot
If the UK were to find itself back in the EU economic frameworks in whatever form, but not a member of the EU, then there would be a sweet spot moment to potentially win a referendum.
A victory for yes would then pave the way for Wales rejoining the political union on its own terms without dislocating economic activity with England. Based on the latest poll, this is the most probable route to victory, notwithstanding the problem of how to obtain a legally binding referendum.
It wouldn’t be completely non-problematic, of course, as those advancing a yes vote would have to be able to guarantee that Wales would be able to secure Treaty opt outs on adoption of the Euro currency on joining the EU.
While I would be perfectly happy to have euros in my wallet as opposed to sterling, a referendum could not be won based on different currencies in Wales and England. The new Welsh state would also have to overcome veto objections by Member States such as Spain, which would be nervous about what disintegration of the British State would mean for them.
The Prime Minister seems very cautious in his approach to Europe which goes against all rational thinking. Fear of reigniting the European debate only emboldens Reform. If Labour genuinely views Reform as the real opposition at UK level, then they need to call out Farage and his followers on the miserable failure of Brexit.
The danger for the Welsh national movement is that once Labour realises that it must pivot on Europe, they move towards advancing full membership not just economic realignment.
If successful, Wales would then be in the position of Scotland in 2014 where EU membership in the case of independence would not be guaranteed.
Furthermore, with EU membership secured on a UK basis, support for independence in Wales could deflate faster than a helium balloon pierced by a crossbow bolt.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24
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‘… recent polls as discussed last week are quite staggering for those of us who support Wales becoming an independent country.’ I wonder if a background reason for this shift in sentiment is the by now pretty widespread sense among ordinary voters that, at least since the global financial crash in 2008, Britain simply ‘isn’t working’ for a lot of them, that there’s little enough indication that’s likely to change any time soon, and that the existing UK political status quo seems to have no real vision, let alone any capacity, to make things better. When that idea beds in… Read more »
I fully agree; it’s clear that people want change because they don’t believe the UK is ‘working’. The comments from voters in Runcorn last week were damning. However, as with Brexit, change for the sake of change may not lead to improvement. The last data I saw showed that Wales is running a 29% fiscal budget deficit. Pro independence supporters dispute it, but we certainly have a big deficit. On day one of independence (or likely several years beforehand), you’d need to cut around a third of all public spending. The status quo may not be attractive, but that particualr… Read more »
Overall that’s my view as well and I think that you’re broadly correct – with the exception that I don’t really believe that ‘our fortunes and relationship with the EU will always be tied to whatever England does’, and I hold to that primarily because Ireland’s another small nation adjacent to England which has remained within the EU, and it doesn’t seem to have suffered any noticeable adverse post-Brexit consequence. But I wholly agree with you that there’s ‘no clear reason to believe Wales’s economic fortunes would dramatically improve with independence’ – at least, and at best, for quite some… Read more »
Thank you, I fully agree with your comment.
My point re fortune tied to England is related to the NI-ROI issue during brexit. We simply can’t have a ‘hard border’ (in EU speak) between england and Wales in the case of independence. We will have to maintain common travel and an internal market with England. That also means no rejoining the EU unless done in sync with England and Scotland. Not that for a second I believe the EU is anyway interested in readmitting any part of the UK (but that’s a different discussion!)
Yes, I see your point.
And you’re right, the UK rejoining the EU is wholly unfeasible unless and until the remaining members states are convinced that there’s a sufficient political consensus in the UK favouring re-entry. Or even the cautious step of accepting the Single Market.
And manifestly there isn’t.
All that goes away when the Windsor Framework is extended to include GB.
A rather important point about the deficit. Professor Doyle of Dublin University calculated that the actual Welsh deficit after Independence would be £2.6 billion. That equates to 3.4% as compared with (from memory I believe he said) the EU or European average of 3.2%.
After Brexit, the EU might have welcomed membership of an independent Scotland and Wales to punish London, even going so far as to exempt them from joining the Euro. Events have forced a more pragmatic stance about UK-EU relations from both sides. Just as the intuitive expectation that uncertain times would favour the status quo, has proved wrong on this island at least, reasoning that pro-independence support would be undermined by closer UK-EU relations may not follow. Instead, supporters of independence might be encouraged to prioritise other reason for their support, after all, there’s much to choose from!
It’s a question of semantics. Do people really want ‘independence’ and a separated Nation or self-determination, self-reliance and control within a United Protectorate? Not devolution but evolution.We are already a Nation (albeit only in identity and name). There is absolutely zero chance of Westminster agreeing to an ‘Independence Referendum’ and why would anyone want one of these flawed, out-dated and ineffective mechanisms? In this digital age, for arguments sake, the democratic ‘will of the people’ could be served by new systems as described here in “Beyond Representation“. Just saying.
Does your semantics still allow mandarins in Whitehall to divert funding from Wales to spend in London on the basis that a richer London is better able to bestow enough crumbs to avoid starvation upon the grateful natives in the colonies?