The independence shield
Ben Wildsmith
Peering too far into the future is unwise at the best of times, and risks derision when events are as unpredictable as they are at the moment.
We should, however, expand the scope of possible outcomes to reflect all the new variables in play. Let’s start with the Senedd election and see where that might leave us.
Current polls show Plaid, Reform, and Labour in something close to a three-way tie. With the Caerphilly by-election upcoming, Plaid’s messaging is sensibly interpreting the party’s lead in the polls to appeal as the ‘stop Reform’ option.
Keir Starmer’s reshuffle this week suggests that Labour is about to pivot right at UK level. It’s difficult to see how that will help the party here, where Baroness Morgan’s efforts to carve out a space on the left for labour in the Senedd are already contradicted by the party’s Welsh MPs, not to mention some of her own MSs.
In light of these dynamics within Labour, the party’s current position in Welsh polls looks vulnerable from both directions.
Anti-Labour
In Wales, Reform’s support is more specifically anti-Labour than in England where some of its appeal is drawn from the existing cohort of voters who were attracted by the right wing of the Conservative Party.
Here, it’s doubtful that a rightward shift by Labour in Westminster will peal off many, if any, Reform voters. Labour’s record in the Senedd will nullify its London messaging, however right-wing that becomes over the next few months.
Conversely, Reform-friendly rhetoric from the party in London will likely put off existing Labour voters here and undermine the party’s Wales-specific campaign points. So, Starmer’s positioning probably won’t win voters from Reform but may well drive some towards Plaid, the Greens, Lib-Dems and, potentially, the new Corbyn/Sultana outfit.
Plaid’s job will be to convince the anti-Reform vote that it is best placed to face down Farage’s party with a strong slate in the Senedd. If that messaging hits home, then Labour’s support could conceivably collapse with voters turning to Plaid as the safest option against Reform.
Outnumbered
It seems near to impossible for Reform to govern in Wales. The party’s most optimistic projections still see it outnumbered to the left in the Senedd and any opportunistic alliance made by a party to its left would lack support from that party’s membership.
In Westminster, however, it looks very plausible that Nigel Farage will emerge from the next General Election as Prime Minister.
This means that the next Welsh government will need to act decisively and quickly to define a national position for Cymru and draw clear lines as regards our democracy.
We have already heard Laura Anne Jones suggest that Reform might seek to abolish devolution here, and you can well imagine how a Reform government in Westminster would view matters of Welsh exceptionalism like free prescriptions and the fracking ban.
From day one, the government in Cardiff must be relentless in demanding that no erosion of Welsh democracy be allowed to pass. It will have time before a General Election, perhaps as long as three years, to flood the zone with this message so that it can form the centrepiece of campaigning here when that election comes.
Ideological leadership
There is a wider implication for a Plaid-led government assuming ideological leadership against Reform UK, particularly if Reform provides the UK government.
This week’s conference has revealed how extreme, undisciplined, and downright weird Farage’s party is. From Andrea Jenkyns singing her self-penned song, to platforming a doctor who asserted that the royal family’s cancers were caused by Covid vaccines, it’s clear that Trumpian chaos is coming to the UK if they win.
Beyond the frivolous, Farage’s insistence on repatriating female asylum seekers to a Taliban-run Afghanistan is so beyond the bounds of decency as to render the party unacceptable to many on its own.
Against this backdrop, the case for Welsh independence takes on an unfamiliar atmosphere. The argument against it has always run that:
1) We share UK-wide values that are rooted in history and have served us at moments of crisis like WWII.
2) Leaving the UK is financially risky and the people who advocate it are unserious or reckless.
When we are facing down the barrel of our democracy being abolished by MAGA enthusiasts, antivaxers, xenophobes, and free-market fundamentalists, then exactly which UK values are we sharing?
In these circumstances, independence ceases to be a leap into the unknown and seems more like a necessary retreat into sanity. Before long, the choice might be between boring social democracy with independence or the fascism of clowns in the UK.
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Exce!!ent analysis, although I would take issue with the assumption that Reform Ltd will be the next UK government.
A well written article, however you have sadly failed to mention Gwlad. The conservatives have no future in Wales and those who have followed a right of centre ideology will be searching for a political space, including some who will have been misled to follow Reform. Success may be minimal in the Senedd Elections; however, Wales will have two political parties in place by the general election. Both promoting independence but with different ideologies.
Actually it will be 3 if you also include Propel
Are Propel right wing? If so why not merge with Gwlad? Not that I would ever vote for them, but to be honest if people in Wales are going to vote right-wing, I’d rather they went for Gwlad/Propel than the Tories or Reform UK. At least they are rooted in Wales and recognise our nationhood, instead of pushing London’s agenda or English nationalism.
You could say that Gwlad are Right Wing.They were involved at the Stradey Park Hotel Protest alongside other English Nationalist Individuals.However I will defend Gwald as they protested peacefully and had no involvement in the disgraceful violence that took place at SPH.
Propel on the other hand have had zero involvement in the Anti Refugee Protests taking place in Rhoose which is very near to it’s majority support base.
Propel have recently called out Cardiff Council for it’s 10 Million Pounds Subsidy for Private Schools.
That doesn’t sound Right Wing Politics to me.
‘Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, Dame Andrea Jenkyns singing at the Reform UK annual conference …’
Why would anyone go to a party conference to be serenaded by a soprano singing quite egregiously vacuous lyrics?!
The Cataclysmic Perils of Welsh Independence: A Survival Guide for the Union-Fearing Soul So, you’ve heard whispers of Welsh independence echoing through the valleys. You’ve seen the dragon stirring. And now you’re wondering: What fresh chaos awaits if Cymru dares to stand alone? Fear not—here’s your definitive guide to the apocalyptic risks of Welsh self-determination, as told by those who believe the sky will fall faster than a soggy bara brith. Once Wales declares independence, physicists warn that Offa’s Dyke may rupture the very fabric of reality. Time will reverse in Llandudno. Sheep will speak Latin. And the Brecon Beacons… Read more »
We will also have world class rugby soccer and cricket teams.
We could have these now. We should be demanding that Wales has its own Cricket team and not be represented as ‘England’ just to appease Glamorgan. But under independence we be entitled to have national teams for all sports including the Olympics.
If we want devolution to survive, we must make the right-wing case for it.
I’m pro-devolution because I would rather us be a federal state like our Anglo peers the US, Canada and Australia rather than a centralised state like France.
I believe in federalism and free speech.
You forgot the original federal Germanic state, Germany.
And the right-wing case for decentralised government should be that it’ll make everyone richer.
Switzerland became a federal state in 1848, Germany in 1871. I would say that Google is your friend, but you have to have some doubt of the truth of your assertion first; that will then motivate you to fact-check your arguments.
Switzerland was originally Celtic before the Romans arrived. The original federation populated by Germanic descendants is of course the USA in 1787 but like Switzerland this came at the expense of indigenous people. Only Germany was originally Germanic. I can’t think of an earlier federation that was originally Germanic, as Austria was later, but jump in if you know of one.
So first you say the original germanic state was Germany, now it’s the USA? And I take “state” to mean a political entity, not a geographical location populated by an ethnic or linguistic group, so if that is not what you meant you need to define your terms more clearly . And as for the notion that the USA in 1787 was populated by Germans, well, there were some, but hardly any: “The 1790 census recorded 3.9 million inhabitants (not counting American Indians). Of the total white population of just under 3.2 million in 1790, approximately 86% was of British… Read more »
The OP referred to “Anglo peers” where “Anglo” is shorthand for Anglo-Saxon which is shorthand for all the Germanic tribes including the Jutes that invaded this island.
Interesting article; but two key points missing. First, a unionist majority at the Senedd election is near certain and there is zero prospect of Westminster granting a referendum. Second, Plaid don’t want one anyway in the next Senedd term. The debate goes on; but short to medium term it looks like a cul de sac to me.
Should be majority support for devomax.
Maybe but maybe not – and clearly not at Westminster.
Only conservative extremists oppose decentralising the UK economy. And rich Londoners of course.
Why would “rich Londoners” oppose devolution? Many Londoners, rich or poor, feel, rightly or wrongly, that they are carrying the poorer parts of the country by dint of the wealth of London, which generates the taxes which go to the support of poorer regions. Since the rich pay more taxes, then logically they would be more supportive of devolution They would be more than happy to see those other regions stand on their own feet. I hesitate to generalise from personal experience, but I lived in London for 20 years, and I often heard this point of view put forward.
London’s success comes at the expense of the rest of the UK. Highly centralised governance creates a highly centralised economy. It’s why London’s GDP is about the same as the next nine UK cities combined. But a rebalanced economy means London is proportionally less wealthy and its status is far lower, even though the combined wealth of the UK would be far higher. That’s not something the unelected mandarins in SW1 want to see happen to their precious capital city.
Politely, this does seem over “simplistic”. The political philosopher David Hume argued that there is no logical or singular connection between what is and what is considered “ought to be”. The Titanic may be sinking, some may be racing to the boats, many others waiting to see if something, a rescue ship, turns up. Equally Independence. Farage’s tanks and jackboots may be on the high streets even threatening “our” glorious institution, but a vast number – the majority? will sit tight hoping it’s a passing political phase or it won’t be too bad after all. Germany 1930s. The very real… Read more »
Peter J writes –
‘Yet again, another article attacking reform, but without providing any positive alternative vision for the future.’
Even if you confuse an article in the Opinion section for a political party’s election manifesto, the vision of not being up to our necks in c***u is a positive alternative vision compared to a vision of a Reform government.
I watch what is happening across the Atlantic and I find it interesting to see how a country can descend into chaos so quickly and seemingly so easily. I find it extremely concerning and a little frightening when I see what is happening over here in the UK (and despite devolution we’re are still the UK) I watched the Conservative Party destroy itself and now Reform is filling the vacuum. I must be missing something because I find it hard to believe that so many people think these “Snake Oil” salesmen and Kranks are a viable alternative. Now it would… Read more »
Eluned Morgan really needs to leave Labour and join Plaid Cymru, who seem closer to the original ethos of the Labor Party than Labour now does. As for who you can turn to, that depends on whether you vote on moral principles or pragmatically; if the former, you could perhaps vote Green (in Cymru), but if the latter, you have to vote Plaid as the best chance to keep Reform out of power.
I agree. I think that perhaps Eluned Morgan is a politician is actually quite an old fashioned politician who is perhaps trying to do what is good for wales but is being hamstrung by the Labour Party.
Eluned Morgan was practically born into the Labour Party.
She’s only ever done ‘good for wales’ if that good has fallen within the parameters of what is good for the Labour Party.
Hamstrung by choice like nearly all in the Labour Party.