The Lib Dems need a bold idea: what can they do to gain relevance?
Jonathan Edwards
The latest YouGov opinion poll was sobering for all the traditional unionist parties in Wales.
Much has been commented on the troubles facing Labour and the Conservatives; however, the Liberal Democrats also find themselves in deep trouble at only 7%.
The party in Wales has failed to mirror the success of the party in England where at Westminster level across the UK in the latest poll they have overtaken the Tories and are only five points behind Labour in second place to Reform.
Whereas in England the party is succeeding in mopping up support from the collapse facing both Labour and the Tories, in Wales those voters are more likely to move to Plaid Cymru. Only 8% of those who voted Labour at the last Senedd election have switched to the Liberal Democrats.
As George Monbiot writes this week in the Guardian, this compares to nearly 52% of those that voted Labour at the last general election across the UK considering switching to the Lib Dems or the Greens (Thinks Insight and Strategy poll last week).
Jane Dodds, the sole current party representative in the Senedd, has played her hand well in securing a £100m in commitments for abstaining during the key votes on the last Welsh Government Budget.
Credit
However, the voting Welsh public are not going to give the Liberal Democrats much credit come voting next May.
Unless something dramatic happens, the best they can hope for is a handful of MSs in the next Senedd.
The Liberal Democrats need to come up with bold initiatives that will get them in the game over the next 12 months, where a few percentage points in support could make a massive difference in seat allocation.
It requires some eye-catching social democratic pledges that will attract traditional Labour voters and look to appeal to middle of the road traditional Tory voters disillusioned with the kowtowing to Faragism by the Conservatives.
One possible ‘Clause 4 initiative’ which could catch the imagination would be for the Liberal Democrats to declare themselves as the first unionist party that would support a referendum on Welsh independence, which they could even caveat with certain conditions.
It would not entail them as a party supporting a Yes vote, only supporting the principle of the Welsh public having their say. The party could adopt a position of neutrality by saying members would be free to support whatever side they wanted and use key spokespeople to advance different arguments to portray the party as a broad church.
Precedent
There is a precedent as the Liberal Democrats of course were the first of the traditional mainstream UK parties to support a referendum on EU membership.
Such a pivot would enable the Liberal Democrats to triangulate Plaid Cymru who currently top the polls.
If Plaid solidify their lead, then the constitutional question will be an inevitable centrepiece of the election, even though Rhun ap Iorwerth seems intent on downplaying matters.
The Liberal Democrats coming out for a referendum could force Plaid to defend a position they seem petrified of advancing. They would also be able to say to those that support the advancement of the national cause that they are the only party that offers a meaningful route to a determination on the big question.
Furthermore, looking at some of the internal selection battles published to date, after the next Senedd election the Plaid Cymru group is likely to have an all-powerful contingent of the extreme left of the party.
Alternative home
The Lib Dems should be positioning themselves as an alternative home for anyone that is pro-Wales in outlook and doesn’t subscribe to permanent revolutionary Trotskyism.
Their current position on the constitution leaves them fighting in a crowded field with Reform, Labour and the Tories. Hardcore unionists are highly unlikely to see the Liberal Democrats as their vehicle of choice, especially as the party policy is to support a federal solution to the UK.
Which brings me to the next point. It is not inconceivable that the Liberal Democrats could find themselves in coalition with Labour at a UK level following the next general election.
Following Brexit, the Lib Dems were the only unionist party that advanced the argument that the British State would need to be reconfigured to reflect its multi-polar nature by creating inter-governmental joint decision-making structures. When it comes to those possible negotiations with Labour after the next general election, it will need a position that leads to federalism being a possible compromise landing zone, especially considering that the clarion calls for a second referendum in Scotland by this stage could well be deafening.
Is it time for the Liberal Democrats in Wales to regrasp the spirit of Cymru Fydd?
Cymru Fydd (Wales To Be) was a late 19th Century movement that advocated self-government for Wales. One of its leading members in his early political career was David Lloyd George, the future Liberal Prime Minister.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24
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Stop being unionists for one.
Sorry, a theoretical and confused argument. The Lib Dem’s coming out for a referendum is hardly going to see voters flocking to them, no matter how matter how many “multi polar landing zones” they invent. The overwhelming majority simply don’t care. The only relevance of the Libs will be if they win 3 seats and Plaid/Labour are 2 short of a majority. A bit like how Ms Dodds has played the arithmetic currently. However they may well end up with a big fat zero.
Under the D’Hondt closed-list system, national campaign narratives matter—a lesson clear from my campaigning experience in Spain and Colombia where such a system is used. Yet the Welsh Lib Dems are trying to win Senedd seats by recycling the UK party line. What’s needed instead are bold, radical, distinctly Welsh policies—ideas that grab headlines, energise supporters, and remind voters the party still exists. As others have noted, the legacy of the Lib Dems’ coalition with the Conservatives still casts a long shadow—especially their failure to deliver electoral reform. Many now question whether the leadership is so entangled in Unionist complacency… Read more »
I agree that narratives matter; but D’Hondt sets a threshold of around 13% of the vote per constituency. Below that a party risks no representation. Beyond mid-Wales and maybe the Cardiff area, it is difficult to see the Libs achieving the threshold as they are consistently polling in single figures and all but invisible in large areas.
How about showing some ambition for Wales. And someone needs to hoover up the politically homeless centre right. It’s a bit crowded over on the left.
Agreed, although I think thats what the Welsh Tories under Darren Millar are trying to do (whether or not they will succeed is a different matter altogether).
It’s difficult to see how he can reverse the damage caused by Johnson’s purge of the moderates in time. The Dems have a one-time chance to move into this space that might be lost to apathy next year.
The Lib Dems need a bold idea? They sure do but they’ll never get one.
I’m a Plaid voter, but if I was living in England I would vote Lib Dem. Pro-Devolution, pro-EU, and pro-electoral reform. I would rather have them as kingmakers than Farage.
This article boldly predicts a future for the Lib Dems, but it couldn’t be more wrong! Do you seriously believe that lifelong Labour supporters would ever switch their allegiance to a party that utterly ruined Brighton, propped up a Tory government, and shamelessly broke every promise it made? He cites the Guardian—hardly a paragon of impartiality—that claims nearly 52% of Labour voters from the last general election are considering defecting to the Lib Dems or Greens. Such an outlandish assertion flies in the face of every reputable poll! Sure, they might scrape into the double digits, clinging to relevance by… Read more »
People haven’t forgotten Nick Clegg supporting Austerity with David Cameron.
Other than Maximum European Integration I have never known what the Liberal Democrats have stood for.
The whole point of them entering the coalition was to change the voting system to rid us of this awful two party system of governance that limits the choice to “bad” or “worse”. Everything else was a temporary compromise to make that happen because austerity could’ve been reversed in 2015 by the new coalition elected under the new voting system.
Unfortunately the billionaire backed media told voters to stick with the status quo. So who’s really to blame?
I’ve written extensively on this. As a former Lib Dem activist and parliamentary candidate, I’ve long argued—alongside others—that the Welsh Lib Dems must reconnect with their radical Liberal roots. This could include exploring an alliance with the Greens, given the clear policy overlap, which would likely benefit both parties under the D’Hondt system. More fundamentally, the Welsh Lib Dems can’t keep parroting Ed Davey’s Home Counties agenda and expect it to resonate in Wales. While Wales and England share challenges—cost of living, housing, transport, and investment—the solutions must be distinctly Welsh. Yet a return to radical, centrist liberalism is bitterly… Read more »
Probably not in time for next year’s Senedd elections; but I do agree that there is a gap in the market for a sensible centre party. The Tories look like being subsumed into the rabid right that is Reform and Plaid appear to be going hard left with the rump of Welsh Labour. My problem is that I can’t think of anything the Lib Dems say or do which attracts my attention. I don’t own a greyhound for a start!
Unless they form their own Welsh Democrats party, completely separate from the mess in Westminster and embarrassing “union” and embrace independence, there’s just no real use or point to them.
If they don’t know this already, they’ve no business in politics.
Why don’t the Lib Dems try Liberal policies, free speech for example? Very novel these days. Oh, and Home Rule all Round used to be a Liberal policy. BTW can we stop equating calling a Referendum with getting Indy? Wales can’t legally call one. And no one should vote without knowing what for. There is no plan. Get one. Get serious. Have people learned nothing from the Brexit Referendum, the non-binding referendum without a proper plan?
On constitutional matters, the LDs position has been best summarised by the concept of “subsidiarity”.
Let’s hope we really do hear, from all contenders for Senedd seats, bold, pragmatic initiatives to drive forward national rejuvenation and tackle the scourges of poverty and exclusion (challenging without independence), but suspect there’ll be over reliance on not being the Tories or Labour (or Westminster Labour); giveaways and gimmicks that require suspension of disbelief over affordability or whether they are deliverable; and subtle and not so subtle nudges to persuade us their values or prejudices are most in tune with ours.
The Lib Dems carved a significant niche for themselves in certain areas through conscientious campaigning and careful attention to the real-time concerns of voters. I know, because during my time in north-west England I lived in three different constituencies where they campaigned that way, and as a result won both council seats and Westminster constituencies as a consequence. But sadly their ineptitude and political vacuity in the coalition years under the dismal leadership of Clegg and Huhne completely torpedoed the reputation with voters that they’d gradually and over time built up. Unlike both the Tories and Labour, Lib Dems had… Read more »