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Opinion

The long march to Welsh independence

30 Apr 2025 5 minute read
March for Independence in Barry. Photo Mark Mansfield

Jonathan Edwards

Last weekend’s Independence march organised by Yes Cymru and All Under One Banner Cymru was another resounding success with South Wales Police estimating that between 6,000 and 7,000 people were in attendance.

The independence debate is now undoubtedly entrenched in our politics.

Furthermore, the most recent poll on Welsh independence was a landmark event that future historians will point to when our time is recorded by the generations that follow.

The poll indicated that a majority in Wales would vote for independence if it meant the country would rejoin the EU.

Seismic

This is seismic: it is the first time that a poll has indicated that a majority of the people of our country have crossed the psychological Rubicon – even though the question was hypothetical in nature (and, as I’ll explore next week, loaded with problems for nationalists).

A straight poll on the situation as it stands puts independence at 41%. It’s definitely ‘game on’ time.

However, with the foundations in place to launch a genuine bid for national freedom, so does the political pressure mount about how to achieve the ambition.

Now the serious work and thinking needs to be done.

Marching in various towns across the country alone isn’t going to lead to Welsh independence.

Those that advance the cause should also be wary. Once the British State considers a threat to its own territorial integrity a genuine danger, its whole apparatus will be unleashed.

Are the leaders of the national movement in Wales ready for what is coming?

In Scotland it appears that a pro-independence majority will be elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2026.

The British State will very soon again face a live campaign within a constituent part for secession.

It is important that in Wales we are far better prepared for what is coming than we were at the beginning of the last decade.

The McAllister/Williams report on future constitutional options provides an excellent starting point.

Supreme Court

Pro-independence supporters in Scotland and Wales however face the same challenge of how to initiate a legal referendum. Securing the support of the Scottish Parliament will not be enough as the Supreme Court has ruled that a public vote can only be held with the consent of the UK Parliament.

A deliberate veto by the UK Government in the event of a clear mandate following next May’s election of course would allow the pro-Independence parties in Scotland to accuse Westminster of ignoring Scottish democracy.

In such a scenario the SNP, Greens and Alba will hope that the backlash against the Union would be irreversible. However, they would continue to face the same problem of how to get to a legally binding vote.

In Wales there is no hope of a pro-independence referendum majority in the Senedd. Even on an incredibly good night for Plaid Cymru next May they will be nowhere near the magic 49 seat number.

Again, this is all academic as Plaid Cymru has dropped its policy of securing a Senedd majority for the purpose of endorsing a referendum on independence. It will be interesting to see what they say in their manifesto.

Just imagine for one moment that Plaid Cymru was serious about independence: to advance to a position to be even able to ask Westminster for a vote, they will have to persuade one of the unionist parties to support such a position.

Devo fiscal max

While I believe there is a perfectly sound strategic case for the Tories to advance devo fiscal max in order to place the economy heart and centre of Senedd politics, I can’t see how they will ever entertain supporting a referendum on independence.

I can’t see Labour adopting a pro-independence referendum position either, even though many of the party’s supporters are now in the Yes camp.

This leaves Reform. If Farage was canny, he would offer a multi-option referendum in the context of Reform winning the Senedd election and then winning a general election in 2029 in some sort of confidence and supply agreement with Plaid for a vote on Independence/status quo/abolish.

Rhun ap Iorwerth has ruled out working with Reform, so it’s a non-starter in any case.

Based on the relationship between the parties, their positions and the key personalities involved in the great game of Welsh politics, I am not particularly clear in my mind how we get to a position where the Senedd supports a Welsh Government motion advancing a legal referendum – let alone persuading a future UK Government to allow one.

If Plaid Cymru won’t work with Reform or even the Tories, then Labour has a veto over Wales’ constitutional status, which the new Senedd voting system strengthens.

Under Proportional Representation the only way we get to first base on a legal referendum is if one of the unionist parties, probably Labour, becomes a nationalist party. That is the uncomfortable reality facing the Welsh national movement.

Which brings me back to Scotland. The only way I can see Labour in Wales changing its position is if the Scots manage to force a second vote on independence and win.

Keep an eye out on developments in Alba therefore over the coming years: as always they are hugely significant for our own country.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, 2010-2024


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SundanceKid
SundanceKid
1 day ago

Interesting article however I disagree with the premise that the pro-independence movement needs the Labour party in Wales to support independence. Labour are currently on track to lose their majority in the Senedd. They are unpopular both on a Westminster and Cardiff level. Aligning with Labour, Reform or the Tories would be political suicide. It’s not a mistake that that Plaid should strive to repeat, nor has this strategy served them well in the past. In fact, they need to distance themselves from all the opposition altogether and position themselves as a strong and credible alternative to Labour/ Reform/ Conservatives.… Read more »

a a
a a
10 hours ago
Reply to  SundanceKid

Plaid are unlikely to win an outright majority in 2026 though I think winning a narrow plurality is possible.

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
33 minutes ago
Reply to  SundanceKid

The problem with Labour is that it is a centralised top-down party. If the majority of its membership in Wales becomes pro-independence and tries to acts on it, the UK party in London will quickly censor it. Therefore only a majority at next Senedd will ensure independence can become a reality. Plaid Cymru is by far in the best position to give us this. As we must remember that the referendum in Scotland was only made because the Liberal democrats in coalition enforced ‘(people should) ….. not enslave by conformity’ from the LD constitution to let Scotland choose. Fortunately, As… Read more »

Chris Jones
Chris Jones
1 day ago

As always, JE has written a well-informed article on the ‘politics’ of Welsh Independence. However, as we’re all begining to realise and experience, ‘politics’ and their purveyors, ‘politicians’ no longer have ‘influence’ on our day to day lives. The ‘language’ of politics has no ‘meaning’ anymore or has been corrupted. For example, ‘devolution’ is the opposite of what people actually want which is forward-looking ‘evolution’. The timescale over which ordinary politics is conducted is far too long in this modern digitised roboticised drone-surveiled world. Even the names of political parties are wrong – Labour no longer represents ‘labourers’, Conservatives are… Read more »

Ernie The Smallholder
Ernie The Smallholder
31 minutes ago
Reply to  Chris Jones

Sounds like we could do with more Liberalism.

Walter Hunt
Walter Hunt
22 hours ago

Have the planets aligned to create an opportunity to bounce Wales into independence through a “clear choice referendum”- a choice between independence and abolitions of the Senedd? A pact between Plaid and Reform to offer that choice to the people of Wales might propel the combined seat numbers of both parties past 48. In 2029 a strong representation of Reform at Westminster might be able to force a reluctant government to respect the result. And if abolish wins? No going back to devolution, that’s over, and the independence movement will have gained spirit far beyond where it is now. 

a a
a a
10 hours ago

Of course if you have a multi-option referendum there will have to be a runoff.

Roystan Pink
Roystan Pink
30 minutes ago

It’ll never happen –

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