The Plaid Cymru surge – has the party gone defensive?
Jonathan Edwards
Last week’s ITV Cymru poll must have led to delirium in Welsh political circles.
All recent polls have indicated that Wales was heading for three-party paralysis next May – yet this poll indicates that Plaid Cymru has established a decisive lead beyond the margin of error, with Reform second.
If the trend in this poll solidifies, it appears that the current party of government in our country will finish in a poor third place at the next election with the official opposition languishing in fourth – on the precipice of the closed list system cliff edge.
Furthermore, it appears that Labour is losing votes in droves to Plaid Cymru with a poll rating nearly at a half of Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party. Similarly, the Tories are continuing to haemorrhage votes to Reform at an accelerating rate. It looks increasingly likely that Welsh politics therefore will be turned on its head.
It would be churlish therefore not to congratulate Rhun ap Iorwerth on the incredible job he has done.
Basket case
He inherited a basket case of a party that was engaged in open internal warfare. With a year to go to the election his party has a credible chance of winning a Welsh national election for the first time. It is an incredible achievement.
However, the main driver for the Plaid surge has been the unpopularity of the new Labour government at UK level as opposed to Plaid Cymru initiating some major change in the Welsh political dynamic. This is not the SNP post the 2014 Referendum for instance, where the tectonic plates had decisively shifted.
In several reported interviews last week, Mr ap Iorwerth offered an insight into the conservative offer his party will make to the people of Wales over the coming year.
Firstly, any aspiration on the national question is kicked well and far into the political long grass. The priority, we are told, will be improving Welsh Government-sponsored public services.
The priority, as Plaid spokespeople have made publicly clear this week, is not to spook potential Labour switchers. To what degree it is wise to publicly state that you are only interested in the voters of one party is a valid question for another time.
However, as an election position it is perfectly understandable. Mr ap Iorwerth doesn’t want to spend the next year answering questions on some of the challenges my previous two Nation articles have posed on the party’s supposed long term constitutional aspiration for Wales.
The danger however is that if Plaid Cymru do not advance the constitutional argument at the heart of its offer it will fail to meaningfully change the Welsh political dial. In other words, those current Labour converts could easily fall back into the Labour fold if the only thing Plaid Cymru is offering is a cuddly version of their old party allegiance.
Timidity
Mr ap Iorwerth and Plaid Cymru are betting the house that their best route to victory is not to scare potential switching Labour voters. In doing so it endangers leaving those who want more radical change to the populist right. The timidity of Mr ap Iorwerth could backfire spectacularly if, when it comes to it on polling day, those potential Labour switchers decide to stay loyal to the mothership.
Plaid strategists should also be thinking about what happens if Plaid find themselves running the Welsh Government and unable to improve Welsh public services and especially the economy due to the limits imposed by the current settlement.
The Welsh public will not react kindly to a party crying wolf at that stage about the need for more powers. Plaid Senedd Members should surely know the deficiencies of the current powers at the disposal of the Welsh Government and that in government their party will be inheriting a Welsh public service network that has Labour place people in most key positions and who are unlikely to be helpful to the aims of Ministers.
Furthermore, without a clear policy on the advancement of Welsh political institutions, can Plaid Cymru credibly be described as a nationalist political party any longer? Labour could easily cobble together an ap Iorwerth-like plan to ‘redesign the relationship between the nations in these islands.’ Quite frankly this is an empty statement that can mean absolutely anything – not least, are we talking about the islands of the British State or the wider British Isles which includes the Republic of Ireland? Your guess is as good as mine.
Aghast
On hearing of the Plaid position last week an old Scottish nationalist Westminster colleague contacted me aghast at the lack of vision from Plaid Cymru at a time where the old two-party Westminster system is seemingly collapsing.
Even if the tactic works for the election, Plaid Cymru could quickly resemble the UK Labour government without a guiding mission based on the raison d’être of the party. In such a scenario Plaid Cymru will find itself a hostage to events.
One such development could be the British State on the verge of imploding as a result of Scotland electing a majority of pro-independence MSPs. With nationalist sentiment in Scotland on fire, will Mr ap Iorwerth as First Minster seriously ignore the opportunities for Wales?
This author and other commentators have outlined why Plaid Cymru will never have a better chance of winning a Welsh election next May. The same applies to the wider national movement that Plaid Cymru claims to lead. Unfortunately, from what we are seeing at the moment from the Plaid leadership, it is highly unlikely that the British government are quaking in their boots in fear of what a Welsh national uprising next May will mean for the future of the State.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24
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I suspect that rather a lot of voters right now look at the two traditional main UK political with a degree of cynical scepticism. The fourteen years of Westminster Conservative government which terminated last year turned out, overall, to be chaotic and pretty disastrous, and then the first year of the new Labour administration has seemed for many of them to be some way less than impressive. Many, no doubt, will just cop out of voting altogether in a sort of helpless despair. Others, for sure, will opt for Reform UK on the grounds that – as an elderly woman… Read more »
I agree and I think to summarise UK politics is becoming increasingly unstable as a result of what you say. I suspect it will be for another 10 years at least, as the problems faced are so deep, and possibly beyond the control of the state. And if you keep voting in parties just to teach others a lesson, ultimately you’ll always be disappointed. Governing leads to the ruination of your popularity as a politician, because there are no easy choices. The other things about polls; they’re incredibly tedious 1 year before an election-especially when there are substantive issues to… Read more »
By this time next year we’ll have a better handle on how Welsh voters are feeling.
Plaid need to capitalise and very much distance themselves from wokey policies like selecting a female candidate when the male candidate was better qualified and had received significantly more democratic votes for the job. But he got binned because he was male. Also refutal of the Supreme court’s recent gender clarity decision is misplaced in most peoples view. These attitudes distance regular people from them. The left push reasonable people right. The very last thing we need with Reform ready to pounce… Pwyll piau hi…
Except this is not even remotely true. The simple fact is, discrimination is experienced more by women who are just as qualified if not more so than the men they’re up against but can’t get a foot in the door simply because they’re women. If you’re against the idea of shortlists, then you should complain more about the already inherent discrimination that leads to shortlists existing in the first place. Get rid of discrimination, the need for shortlisting therefore disappears. Secondly, you think that people should support the type of transphobic policies that Reform promote in order to… beat Reform…… Read more »
Supporting sex based rights isn’t transphobic. And thanks to the Supreme Court, we are all now clear it is the law. This isn’t 2018. ‘No Debate’ didn’t work.
I agree with you. I have encountered so many “regular” people throw up their hands in despair and state they are voting Reform. Further, Plaid’s selection procedure is pure lunacy. Eight constituencies have a woman first and third. The other eight, if a woman gets the top spot, the second spot also must go to a woman!!! This idiocy meant we missed out on Wigley years ago and could mean we lose both Adam Price and Cefin Campbell. This is a disservice not only to Plaid, but to the Senedd.
Yes, Plaid are reaping the benefits of a huge dislike of both major parties and, understandably, do not want to jeopardise this with excessive talk about Welsh independence, at the moment. However, that should still be the party’s ultimate goal and be prominent in it’s manifesto. Step one – gain power. Step two – implement it’s policies that put Cymru first. Step three – promote how these policies will be enhanced through independence.
Plaid has undoubtedly had a major boost; but it’s only one poll with a tight margin for error which the pollsters concede could significantly change the seat projections. Also, recent Council by election results don’t really chime with it. Plaid did badly in areas they must win. Much does depend where Labour refugee voters end up and the exodus could still go elsewhere. Thus positioning is tricky. The public undoubtedly regard the NHS and other public services as the priority; but the author is right that there is limited scope to address current problems.
Increased support for Plaid is indeed more about voters’ serious disillusionment with Labour than anything Plaid have done to win votes. That said, with the right focus on practical achieveable policies, Plaid can provide a strong, Welsh, alternative to Reform. Make life easier for SME’s, improve public transport, do more for rural communities and farmers, and so on. But Rhun needs to properly jettison the wordy, ideological, out of touch line that Adam Price brought. It didn’t work. There is no popular support for gender self ID, and Rhun needs to stop carping about the recent Supreme Court ruling. That… Read more »
Well done for shoe-horning in some needless transohobia – it’s very fashionable this year, it seems. Rhun is correct to highlight the impact the ruling will have on some of the most vulnerable people in society. Showing compassion and understanding on this does not prevent Plaid tackling the other issues you refer to. It’s possible to care about more than one thing at once. The UK Labour government currently seems to be a hopeless band of shape-shifters with no clear direction or guiding principles other than to try and court Reform voters and the right-wing press. In light of that,… Read more »
The vulnerable people in our society are my working colleagues who are mothers who can not clobber together dinner money for their kids and are borrowing to survive. Can we focus on real problems in order to get Plaid in power not elitist ones and by the way, people have the right to hold gender critucal views, it does not make them nazis for holding them. Its the no debate mob shouting ‘you are all haters’ hysteria on this and other subject matters that has propelled voters to Reform.
Hear hear. It’s an approach which wrecked the SNP in Scotland (and by forcing through tone deaf and ultimately fruitless legal changes in Holyrood, did more to undermine support for trans rights than any centre right party). You’d think someone in Plaid would have the sense not to go charging down the same track.
I have little interest in what Plaid Cymru has to say, but their MP certainly stuck one up Starmer at PMQs yesterday. She called him out on his 24-hour rolling set of opinions and he didn’t like it one bit. The mask slipped and out came the snide, petulant little misogynist.
Likewise. It was expertly launched & delivered, a torpedo in fact, and it hit Starmer exactly where it was supposed to do. As she said, you only had to look at Labour faces after Starmer. Well, except Rachel Reeves who looked like her favourite donor has given her yet another six free Dior trouser suits and a box of pop socks. Plaid should be really be doing so much more of this.
“…Plaid should be really be doing so much more of this….” Too true. Indeed that should be a major part of their presence at Westminster, to question, criticise and comment on the serial failings of a government with a serious flip flop complex.
Jonathan Edwards is right in pointing out that Plaid Cymru should be publicly targeting the constitutional issue. Surely, adopting a commitment to press Westminster for greater devolved powers is something that disaffected Labour voters could get behind, and would also put paid to any notion that Plaid can no longer “credibly be described as a nationalist party”.
Independence was front and centre of the Plaid offer in 2021, and that did not go well.
Rhun ap Iorwerth is right to shift the focus from that.
The main thing is for Plaid to get into power, show that they can govern well and then independence can be raised naturally from that, that we can govern Cymru competently and independence is therefore a natural next step.