The politics of devolving policing could work for both Labour and Plaid

Jonathan Edwards

During last week’s visit to Port Talbot the new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, got those of us who are interested in constitutional matters very excited with his statement that he was open to the idea of devolving policing powers to Wales.

Despite it being the policy of the last Labour Welsh Government, previous calls for the devolution of policing have made little waves in Westminster under both Tory and Labour administrations.

However, during his visit the Prime Minister said: “That’s an issue I’m certainly prepared to look at, and I hear what you’re saying. As a former mayor that had those responsibilities, I understand how much you can do when you can really make policing right for the places and the people where you are.

“So, I hear that call, I’m open to the discussion with the Welsh Government. As part of the wider policing reform that’s going on, it seems a good time to have a look at those issues. So, I can’t promise today, but what I can say is I’m open to the conversation.”

Not a cast iron guarantee, but not a blunt refusal to consider the matter either.

Mr Burnham is not a naïve communicator, and he knows that by not shutting down the debate his words change the political conversation. What was once improbable is now possible. When questioned by Plaid Westminster leader Liz Saville-Roberts during Prime Minister’s Questions this week, the line was similar.

His words were not met warmly by Labour MPs from Wales, one of whom described the devolution of policing as a “travesty” and not in the “interests of Wales”.

I am not entirely sure how devolving policing would be a travesty. Operationally, policing is already devolved in Northern Ireland and Scotland, and as Mr Burnham explained in his comments, some of the large city mayors in England also have powers which are currently denied to the Welsh Government. Cross-border cooperation therefore is well established within the UK.

Financially also, if Barnett allocations were passed on fully by the Welsh Government to the police, the funding situation would be more or less neutral. Looking at the Police Grant by the Home Office for this financial year for Welsh forces published by the Home Office in its statement to the House of Commons last January, Dyfed Powys received £80.6m; Gwent £114.9m; North Wales £116.4m; and South Wales £254.4m. A total Home Office allocation of £566.3m.

The total Home Office allocations for English and Welsh forces was £11,939.9m.

A quick glance at the figures indicates that Welsh policing would still gain a little if funded via Barnett allocations following devolution as opposed to current arrangements, though admittedly the figures seem less advantageous than when I last looked at them some years ago. The police of course are also funded from other sources, primarily the local precept, and a more detailed study would be required to consider the financial aspects of devolving policing by those with access to the full picture.

Regardless, the main purpose of this article is to consider the political considerations surrounding the devolution of policing for both Plaid Cymru and Labour as the respective governing parties at Welsh and UK level.

Plaid will undoubtedly grasp this moment as an opportunity to press home its main constitutional objective of devolving justice powers in its entirety.

The Thomas Commission

Policing is probably the most important aspect of the portfolio of powers it seeks which includes the recommendations of the Thomas Commission of 2017, namely legislative devolution of justice to the Senedd, executive devolution of justice functions to the Welsh Government and the formal recognition of Welsh law as distinct from English law.

Any progress would be a major victory for Plaid. The party is likely to find itself swamped by, the responsibility of the day-to-day running of the Welsh Government, its energies consumed by the minutiae of governance. They would be overjoyed to have a big constitutional win to point to from their first term as the main party of government in our country.

Some Labour MPs might not be too overjoyed at the prospect of giving Plaid a political gift. However there is a strong case to make that their own narrow interests might be best served with giving the Prime Minister the freedom to follow his instincts.

General election

A general election could well come sooner than later. Labour MPs who could normally expect to walk home are now in a dog fight to keep their seats. Key to seeing off their challengers is for Labour to regain those voters who switched to Plaid in the Senedd election. At the next election they are going to need more than a tactical voting narrative to see them home.

Progressive voters who have been lost will need a positive reason to return home. Regrasping their mantle as the party of devolution is an obvious strategic imperative.

They would also be able to deprive Plaid of the “Labour Westminster says no” narrative it will surely employ.

Labour could more than legitimately claim credit for delivering such change. After all, any devolution must come from legislation proposed by the UK Government. Furthermore, as stated earlier, the devolution of justice and police powers were established Labour-led Welsh Government positions.

Debate

By opening the debate around the devolution of policing powers, the Prime Minister has fired up a wider debate about the future direction of the Labour Party in Wales and ignited the forever battle between the party’s pro-Wales and unionist factions.

The interesting paradox of the current situation, I suppose, is that following Labour’s drubbing at the Senedd election, power within Labour in Wales has moved to the pro-union forces. However, the elevation of Mr Burnham means that the highest political office in the UK is held by someone who is inherently anti-Westminster.

The scene is set for a bit of an identity crisis for Labour in Wales which will need to be addressed decisively.

Labour strategists when they take a deep breath will surely conclude that there can be no rebirth for the party in Wales if it positions itself as a devo-sceptic party.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24

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