The Reform Senedd group: Can its early confidence survive weakening polls?

Brenig Davies

The Reform Senedd group entered the Senedd with the confidence that only an unexpected electoral breakthrough can bring.

Few of its Members had imagined that, within a matter of weeks, some would be giving television interviews, attracting media attention and occupying the seats of the Official Opposition in such large numbers.

Politics had moved quickly. Too quickly for many. A new language. Call for help: ‘What is parliamentary procedure? What’s a Y Llywydd? I don’t speak Welsh. What’s a supplementary question? No one told me I had to think on my feet. How dare my view be questioned? I’ve always been right. I’ve held my opinions without change since I was a teenager. I’ll have nothing to do with the pompous concept of the power of uncertainty. No philosophy in my life, thank you.’

Lamentably, success has a habit of convincing political parties that every decision was correct. ‘But of course.’

Success is intoxicating. It is deceptive. But now we’re rattled by the Burnham bounce.

‘Has anyone seen Nige?’ The YouGov opinion poll published on 31 July placed Reform behind Labour. Andy on 43%, Nige on 23%.

However, polls change: the latest YouGov poll has Reform back in front of Labour, 23% to 22%. ‘The Burnham bounce appears to have faded, thank goodness.’

Most Reform Members arrived with little experience of national politics or even politics at all. Their confidence was reinforced by favourable opinion polls and by the belief that they had joined a political movement whose rise would never end. But now, with a sudden change in circumstances, it is not flippant to ask: Will Reform unravel?

One MS has gone public, saying he will jump ship at the end of the Seventh Senedd term, and it can’t come quickly enough.

The Reform Senedd group may discover that its greatest challenge comes not from its political opponents but from keeping its own ranks united. Members may begin questioning whether the party’s strategy is working, while others may argue for a different direction.

None will dare show anxiety when the Reform family dwindles. ‘What might we do without our great daddy, our Dear Leader?’

The rush of election adrenaline soon gives way to the routine of tiresome constituency correspondence.

Call for help: ‘What’s a constituency? What is mine? Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. I can’t pronounce it. Where is it? I can’t drive. I hope it’s near Cardiff. I live in Barry Island.’

Opposition politics demands patience. Senedd committee meetings can be boring if the agenda is not grasped – nothing new there then.

‘Induction didn’t tell me I had to read long papers. I can’t even get help from our special adviser. He left school at 16. What chance have I got?’

Leadership 

Leadership becomes more demanding when fortunes change. Reform UK fought the election as a UK party with Home Counties accents. That leaves interesting questions about authority within the Senedd group and the relationship between the UK leadership and its Welsh representative.

Reform UK Wales was on the ballot paper. ‘If my UK leader falters, do I falter with him?’

Some commentators gave the impression that the Senedd was little more than a Westminster outpost. But I’ll have none of it. Our Dear Welsh Leader is adamant that he is not and will never be an outpost leader. Though he’s confided in me that he will never tell Nige. We in the Senedd are Welsh through and through. Though between ourselves only eight of us were born in Wales, and it might be fewer.

Learning the Senedd Ways

There is a difference between winning an election and learning how to operate effectively in the Senedd. The first brings attention, or frankly attention span. The second requires discipline.

Members must learn standing orders, understand committee work, deal with amendments, listen to arguments and accept that another Member may occasionally have a better point. This is hard to swallow.

Wales has its own political habits, language and expectations. A group arriving from a UK-wide political surge may discover that the Senedd is not Westminster. Constituents will expect their Members to understand local concerns, whether those concerns involve the NHS, education, transport, housing or the economy.

TikTok

A strong social media presence is not a substitute for knowing the constituency. You can’t get away with TikTok.

There is also the question of discipline. A large group can look impressive on election night. It becomes less impressive if Members speak independently, contradict one another or become involved in disputes. God forbid.

The larger the group, the greater the need for an internal structure. ‘What’s that?’

The coming months may provide ample excitement for politicos. Reform has enjoyed the advantage of novelty. That state will not last. Attention will move elsewhere. Polls will rise and fall. Members will have to decide whether they are there to oppose or to develop a coherent Welsh political programme.

Brenig Davies has written satire for many years, with pieces appearing in The Wales Yearbook, best-of-the-day blogs, Wales Politico and The Eye. He is also a regular contributor to Nation.Cymru’s opinion section.

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