The Two Wales Model: the insurgent party’s strongest card?
Jonathan Edwards
Many moons ago, when I was a student at Aberystwyth University, I studied the ‘Three Wales Model’ by Dr Denis Balsom.
Dr Balsom published his theory in the mid-80s, in which he split Wales into three zones to explain voting behaviour defined by class, language and identity.
Our country according to the theory could be divided into Y Fro Gymraeg, Welsh Wales and British Wales. Y Fro encompassed the language heartlands; Welsh Wales the valleys; and British Wales the marches, the south-east coastline and south Pembrokeshire.
The model was created in the lost years between the 1979 and 1997 referendums and was influential in the thinking of devolution proponents on how to win the 1997 vote.
One of the impacts of devolution has been the gradual dismantling of the model with the 2011 law-making referendum vote an obvious case in point, where every single county in Wales, apart from Monmouthshire, supported a Yes vote.
One Wales
One could argue that at that stage a One Wales model was developing, only for the Brexit referendum of 2016 to throw matters into complete flux.
As we approach the next Senedd election, is there an emergent new model that could define the contest, especially as it looks likely that there will now be two insurgent parties fielding candidates from opposite sides of the political spectrum?
From my perch on the Western Bannau, Wales is fast resembling the UK, with political power, cultural influence and economic wealth concentrating in the south-east corner of the country.
It was a fear of this eventuality that led me to support locating the National Assembly in Swansea as opposed to Cardiff following the successful 1997 vote.
Devolution has brought many successes, but it has failed miserably in generating and spreading economic wealth across the whole of the country. The economic strategy to me seems based on the capital alone with the policy for the rest of the south being based on commuter communities to serve Cardiff.
Culturally Cardiff seems increasingly divorced from the rest of the country, largely driven by the migration of young people to the capital in search of economic opportunity.
Devolved governance has led to the growth of a civil service to support its activities and critically an increasingly vibrant civil society infrastructure.
Labour and Plaid Cymru have been co-architects but for different reasons, Labour as it wants to build structures that extend its grip on Wales and Plaid as they see all this as vital to nation building. The politics of the Senedd bubble is very much what some political scientists terms as cosmopolitan.
Distant
There has always been an undercurrent of feeling in the north of the country that Cardiff rule is distant and I suspect that feeling is spreading to other parts of the country.
Up until now the divide between Cardiff and the rest of the country has been kept in check from political revolt as Labour have always been in power in one form or another, and the traditional self-styled insurgent force in Welsh politics, Plaid Cymru, was a part of the club.
However, 2026 will be different. The politics of Nigel Farage from UKIP to the Brexit Party to now Reform has been based on defining against the ‘establishment’ and what he would term cosmopolitan political philosophy.
The new party led by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana certainly won’t share the view of Reform when it comes to so-called woke issues, but I suspect their political platform will not be based on serving the Bay Bubble.
Their politics will very much be based on community empowerment in those left behind parts of Wales.
Division lines
Could the division lines as we approach next May therefore be between those who have a stake in the apparatus of Welsh devolved governance and those who haven’t? Those who have will fall behind the traditional Senedd parties.
As for the rest of our fellow citizens, there are now two political parties that will offer a programme which might be far more relevant for how they see the world.
Devolution smashed the Three Wales Model, but has it in fact created a Two Wales Model instead?
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24
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‘One nation’ politics always cracks under the weight of geographical and socioeconomic divides. Nations are not cohesive entities.
It’s no surprise that many areas of Wales have not prospered since devolution. Nor have many living in Cardiff, which has the most expensive, and some of the worst, housing in Wales.
The new party emerging from the Corbyn-Sultana initiative will seek to represent all those who have lost out during the past 15 years of austerity.
Correctly, Jonathan Edwards identifies the negative aspects of the political and economic dominance of Cardiff in Cymru today. Generally, the former precedes the latter. Which is why we need to consider a better arrangement post-independence. As an independent state, a written constitution will hopefully go some way to ensuring a better balance of both political and economic power within Cymru. But it won’t be enough. We need stronger regional authorities, not weak local authorities without the range and competence to provide high quality facilities and services for our people. Cymru will need an upper chamber, primarily focused on scrutinising legislation.… Read more »
I agree with your point about stronger regional authorities (but less convinced on some of your other points). However, the simple fact is that the Senedd and the Welsh government will not do it because it involves transferring power elsewhere. One of the biggest weaknesses of the current devolution settlement is that we have simply swapped one centralised bureaucracy in London for another one in Cardiff.
‘… and British Wales the marches, the south-east coastline and south Pembrokeshire.’
Surely you need to add the ‘costa geriatrica’ of the north Wales coastline where relatively well-heeled retirees from Greater Manchester and Merseyside opt to end their days to that category?
Sympathetic as I am to the new “yet to be named, structured and programed party with the huge mailing list”, I suspect it will be very much urban based here with a reach to the valleys. So how far it escapes the Bay bubble is to be seen. That the later is so entrenched and pervasive, a product of “vicious and virtuous cycles”, the drivers, is no accident as we profoundly say down the University after a few beers.
Both Reform and the Corbyn-Sultana party are Anglo Brit centred. Reform is an Anglo supremacist party now posing as friend of the underdog but not likely. Corbyn-Sultana’s group will be so intensely focussed on addressing the UK wide political context that the needs of our country will get shunted back into some very long grass just as happened with all earlier versions of socialist led change. Give them all a wide berth.
You’re assuming, without evidence, that this new party will be centralised. Its members in Wales will demand a high degree of autonomy. Corbyn himself has suggested that there might be independent parties in England, Scotland and Wales, cooperating at the UK level.
We can’t bury our heads and pretend the UK does not exist.
Jonathan Edwards’s analogy about Wales being “split” is downright infuriating—simplistic doesn’t even begin to cover it! The reality is people vote for reasons far deeper and more personal than he seems willing to acknowledge. The real issues, the truly serious matters—immigration, for one—are shoved into the minds of Welsh people every day, stirring anxiety and frustration. It’s maddening that, while immigration may not have reached every corner of Cymru, places like Newport are now feeling the upheaval, and Cardiff, honestly, hardly even resembles the country we once knew! It’s infuriating—he claims, “one could argue that at one stage a One… Read more »
so near and yet so far!
Blimey! I’ll WILL huff and I’ll WILL puff!
Meanwhile, in reality, so not the Reform Cwmbran Triangle bubble. And squeak…
ONS social attitude surveys February 2025
When asked about the important issues facing the UK today, the most commonly reported issues were the NHS (86%), the cost of living (86%), the economy (71%), crime (60%), housing (57%), climate change and the environment (57%), and immigration (54%).
So, immigration the LEAST. And one UK area that Wales itself has no control over. But that never stopped the incoming grifters and sociopaths from UKIP the last time out. Did it.
You’re right, Plaid Cymru are complicit. The Welsh government is an abject failure. Welsh children’s reading levels when leaving school are the worst in the uk. The Welsh government have failed us as they have on all other devolved issues.
Can you at least agree that Brexit made everything worse. Then we might get somewhere.
Ask your MS why they blew 3.5 billion from the EU and if were really up to the mark and realised the situation within the EU you would agree with me!
Can you at least acknowledge that Brexit has made everything worse? I’ll let you into a secret Ian. Most Remainers didn’t back Remain out of love for the EU. They did it because they knew the real problems were caused by Whitehall, and EU membership was making it a bit harder for Whitehall to behave badly. You see, Remainers have always known that Westminster isn’t a proper government. It was set up as a private members club for wealthy landowners to rig the game for wealthy landowners. And it’s never been properly reformed since. And that’s the real problem with… Read more »
We can see the obvious solution and that is a federal Wales. The Welsh government consists of just a single elected assembly, it is elected by a system of PR (so that is a start). But, how is it held accountable between elections, particularly if your community is inaccessible from the levers of power. Perhaps, increasing the number of Senedd members doesn’t solve the real problem. It would be better to have a 2nd chamber with representatives from regional government with more autonomy. There is a similar federal system which is the basis of Germany and is why most of… Read more »