The Welsh Conservatives need to take a strategic look at themselves

Martin Shipton

The Conservative Party has lost its way and is in a mess. While that may seem glaringly obvious, it gives me no pleasure to make such a statement.

On this side of the border with England, we have been focussing on Labour losing both its role in government and its status as the biggest party in Wales.

But at a British level, the Tories are facing an existential crisis, with its support haemorrhaging in the direction of Reform UK.

In Wales, the party’s ability to get just seven MSs elected was hailed as a triumph, so low had expectations sunk.

Traditionally, the existence of a strong centre right party has been seen as an important element of any democracy. Even from a left wing perspective, ideas from the sensible right can act as a counterweight against which radical policies can be pitched.

Having to take account of opposing viewpoints can help refine progressive legislative proposals and make them stronger. Equally, election campaigns can be enlivened by civilised debate about points of principle that underpin manifesto commitments.

Brexit changed the balance of power within the Conservative Party and has enabled the rise of the far right in British politics, to the disadvantage of the Tories. Ironically, Boris Johnson’s successful rallying cry at the 2019 general election to “Get Brexit Done” has led to his party’s undoing.

Decades ago, while Labour was seen as the party of the workers, the Conservatives were seen as the party of business. While Labour claimed to stand up for employees’ rights, the Conservatives argued that measures designed to support business would increase general prosperity, leading to higher wages and better conditions for workers. At least that was the theory.

Brexit split the Tories. While David Cameron as Prime Minister displayed arrogance and complacency at the time of the 2016 referendum, 10 years ago this month, those in the party who had been an irritant since John Major’s premiership in the early and mid 1990s became louder and more confident. Boris Johnson’s late, and seemingly impetuous, decision to back Leave sealed the deal and helped turn the Conservative Party into part of the Brexit-supporting movement. Johnson’s eccentricity was seen as a positive at the time and many fell for his contrived charisma.

The Tories’ support for Brexit had two consequences. It tarnished its reputation as the party of business, given that leaving the EU withdrew us from seamless trade with our nearest neighbours, creating new barriers that damaged many businesses and led to increased costs for consumers,

Secondly, the Conservatives were now swimming in the same pond as Nigel Farage, his vehicle of the time UKIP and the far-right, racist activists who saw Brexit as a godsend.

The narrow victory for Brexit in the referendum led to an upsurge in racist crimes, fuelled racist activity on social media – further exacerbated following the purchase of Twitter by Elon Musk in 2022 – and normalised such behaviour.

In Britain, it has also led to the rise of Reform UK, with the consequence that racism has become entrenched as a mainstream and significant part of our political discourse.

As we know, this year’s Senedd election became a battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform for supremacy. In the event, tactical voting by those on the progressive left prevailed, and Reform was denied the power in Wales many claimed was within its reach.

Just as Labour was squeezed by Plaid Cymru on the left, the Conservatives were squeezed by Reform on the right.

At a British level, Reform was helped by the recent memory of a failed Tory reign that had lasted 14 years, while the Conservatives seemed unsure of what strategy to adopt in the new circumstances.

Nation of Sanctuary

For some, the obvious thing to do was to seek to ape Reform’s success. This led to the grotesque decision of successive Tory group leaders Andrew RT Davies and Darren Millar to airbrush from history the support they had both given to the Welsh Government’s Nation of Sanctuary programme – an initiative that helped Ukrainian refugees fleeing from Putin’s invasion of their country to resettle in Wales.

Some 91% of the scheme’s budget was sent to that end, although Messrs Davies and Millar were happy to follow Reform’s lead by implying the money was spent on migrants arriving by small boat.

It was sad to see the Conservative Party stoop to such dog-whistle tactics, but their strategists convinced themselves that it was the only way to shore up their vote. But did it?

People in Wales who are preoccupied by the English obsession with small boat migrants, few of whom make it to Wales, are likely to have voted for what they see as the real deal – Reform UK – rather than the Tories.

The party is making the same mistake at the British level, where Kemi Badenoch also taps into xenophobia, suggesting that Britain should work towards a point where more people are leaving the UK than coming in – a view that runs totally against good sense, given the need for an increase in future taxpayers to ensure sufficient funding for our public services.

Defections

Another indication that the Conservatives have lost their way comes with the constant opportunistic defections to Reform. At the Senedd we have seen two Tory MSs jump ship in that direction, as well as a number of support staff. The latest – and most egregious example – involves the defection of a Tory group press officer to Reform, who within days was announced as a Reform by-election candidate in a Rhondda Cynon Taf council by-election caused by the election of a former Plaid Cymru councillor to the Senedd. Unsurprisingly, questions have been asked again about the integrity of Reform’s candidate vetting procedures.

In the case of the two MSs who defected from the Conservatives to Reform – Laura Anne Jones and James Evans – there is no doubt that they shifted party allegiance in order to keep their annual salaries of more than £76,000. Their decisions were taken on the basis of self-interest and not principle.

There are already murmurings within the Senedd Tory group that there is unhappiness about any attempt to cosy up to Reform,

The other day Conservative MS Janet Finch-Saunders criticised a Reform Shadow Cabinet member, saying all he could offer was soundbites and not effective scrutiny of the Welsh Government. She said she preferred working with Plaid Cymru.

The Welsh Conservatives need to take a strategic look at themselves.